MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. Suspension of oil production in Iran even in part due to risks related to escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to an increase in Brent prices by 10-15% more, Alexander Potavin from Finam told TASS.
In the evening of October 1, Iran delivered a large-scale missile strike against Israel in response to assassinations of key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah movements and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Brent prices climbed today amid such background to more than $76 per barrel for the first time since September 3 of this year.
"Risks remain high and the war premium has already started to be recognized in current oil prices. Oil production in Iran totaled 3.7 mln barrels daily in August - this is the highest estimate since June 2023. The halt of at least a portion of such production volume may lift oil prices by 10-15% more," Potavin said.
The impact of the dockworkers strike in the US on prices is unclear so far, the expert noted. This may indirectly affect global chains of fuel supplies. Brent prices may grow to about $82 a barrel if "the closest strong resistance level" of $75.8 per barrel is passed, he added.
Geopolitics continue influencing on oil prices, especially as regards Iran, the country with one of the largest hydrocarbon reserves, said Dmitry Kasatkin, the partner of Kasatkin Consulting. Iran was gradually increasing oil production in recent years, having been one of the largest suppliers for China, he stressed. "Oil and gas production and refining and processing facilities will be among the first ones to be hit in case of conflict escalation and we will see further price growth," the expert noted.
Several factors were brought together yesterday in the oil market, Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya from BCS Investment World said. These are the strike in US ports, reduction of oil reserves in the US and aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. "Iran’s action prompted the market to reassess current geopolitical risks and put them into the oil price. At the same time, not all of such risks are in the price. A bad scenario, for example, is strikes against oil tankfarms. The worst scenario is blocking of the Ormuz Strait, which accounts for 20-30% of global oil flows, according to different estimates," the expert said.
The oil price may grow even higher and rather swiftly if these variants materialize, Rokotyanskaya noted. "If we follow the technical analysis, Brent futures need to entrench themselves above $75.2 a barrel for confident growth. This will open the target of $80.59 [per barrel]," the analyst added.