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Middle East conflict

Updated at:

Even partial suspension of oil production in Iran may lead to price growth — expert

"The halt of at least a portion of such production volume may lift oil prices by 10-15% more," Alexander Potavin said

MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. Suspension of oil production in Iran even in part due to risks related to escalation of the conflict in the Middle East may lead to an increase in Brent prices by 10-15% more, Alexander Potavin from Finam told TASS.

In the evening of October 1, Iran delivered a large-scale missile strike against Israel in response to assassinations of key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah movements and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Brent prices climbed today amid such background to more than $76 per barrel for the first time since September 3 of this year.

"Risks remain high and the war premium has already started to be recognized in current oil prices. Oil production in Iran totaled 3.7 mln barrels daily in August - this is the highest estimate since June 2023. The halt of at least a portion of such production volume may lift oil prices by 10-15% more," Potavin said.

The impact of the dockworkers strike in the US on prices is unclear so far, the expert noted. This may indirectly affect global chains of fuel supplies. Brent prices may grow to about $82 a barrel if "the closest strong resistance level" of $75.8 per barrel is passed, he added.

Geopolitics continue influencing on oil prices, especially as regards Iran, the country with one of the largest hydrocarbon reserves, said Dmitry Kasatkin, the partner of Kasatkin Consulting. Iran was gradually increasing oil production in recent years, having been one of the largest suppliers for China, he stressed. "Oil and gas production and refining and processing facilities will be among the first ones to be hit in case of conflict escalation and we will see further price growth," the expert noted.

Several factors were brought together yesterday in the oil market, Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya from BCS Investment World said. These are the strike in US ports, reduction of oil reserves in the US and aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. "Iran’s action prompted the market to reassess current geopolitical risks and put them into the oil price. At the same time, not all of such risks are in the price. A bad scenario, for example, is strikes against oil tankfarms. The worst scenario is blocking of the Ormuz Strait, which accounts for 20-30% of global oil flows, according to different estimates," the expert said.

The oil price may grow even higher and rather swiftly if these variants materialize, Rokotyanskaya noted. "If we follow the technical analysis, Brent futures need to entrench themselves above $75.2 a barrel for confident growth. This will open the target of $80.59 [per barrel]," the analyst added.

Russian GDP growth estimate revised upward to 4.7% in H1 2024

The Russian statistics service confirmed the estimate of national GDP growth in the first quarter at the level of 5.4% annually

Drones now capable of missions that used to be assigned exclusively to planes — Putin

"Modern unmanned aerial vehicles are gradually but fundamentally changing the principles of military operations," the Russian leader underlined

High-Precision Systems delivers Pantsir missile systems to army ahead of schedule — Rostec

According to Rostec, new modifications made to the Pantsir have improved its performance against drones, shells and missiles

Scholz hopes to hold conversation with Putin in coming weeks — media

As the weekly Die Zeit emphasized, Olaf Scholz last talked with Putin in December 2022, also over the phone

Ukraine’s failed breakthrough attempts and strikes on reserves: situation in Kursk Region

According to the report, Russia’s tactical aircraft and missile forces carried out strikes on Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy Region

Hezbollah lost half of its arsenal, Al Arabiya says

According to the source, the Israeli side is intentionally concealing the scale of its armed incursion into southern Lebanon

Press review: Putin sends nuke smoke signal to West and China shows off military might

Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, September 26th

NATO troops to come under control of alliance force commander in Europe — Pentagon

NATO representatives have not previously reported on such large-scale plans

Iranian missile attack causes no serious harm to capabilities of Israeli air force — IDF

Thanks to air defense systems, minimal damage was caused, Spokeswoman for the Israel Defense Forces Anna Ukolova said

Fragments of Iranian missiles fired at Israel fall in Jordan, three injured

Media Affairs and Communications Minister and governmental spokesman Mohammad Momani reported that fragments of missiles fell in various parts of the kingdom

Press review: Moscow snubs US on arms control and Kiev not fan of China peace initiative

Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, October 1st

After incursion into Lebanon Israel may attack Iran — Iranian political scientist

"The invasion of Lebanon was Israel's message to the effect that the UN has completely lost credibility and authority," Professor Ruhollah Modabber added

Putin receives direct reports from servicemen on Russian advances near Ugledar — Kremlin

Earlier, the head of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said that the Russian forces are improving their positions in Ugledar every day

Russia seizes trophy Bradley infantry fighting vehicle near Ugledar — security forces

The security forces noted that in recent months the Western-made equipment is scarce on this segment of the line of engagement

No 'magic capability' to change face of Ukraine conflict, US official says

According to Matthew Miller, Washington viewed "all the capabilities and all the tactics" to support Kiev

Russia says its Lancet loitering munition destroys US-made М777 howitzer in Kursk Region

The Russian Defense Ministry released footage of the destruction of the artillery gun, which shows the detonation of its ammunition

Ukrainian troops leave positions in center of Ugledar in Donbass — defense circles

The Ukrainian troops leave a lot of wounded fellow servicemen, most of whom die of their wounds and also due to the absence of medical assistance, the defense circles said

Price of gas from EU for Moldova to go down by more than 24 euro in October — Moldovagaz

In 2022, Gazprom, which was previously the only gas supplier to the republic, reduced its daily supply by 30%

Arabs remove Hezbollah from list of terrorist organizations — senior Arab League official

"The military escalation in the south poses a severe challenge to security and stability not only in Lebanon, but also across the Middle East, especially if the conflict spills over," Hossam Zaki said

Explosion goes off in Tel Aviv area

A TASS reporter heard a loud booming sound in the Tel Aviv area shortly before

Relations with Russia important even in case of total disagreement

"The relations between Israel and Russia are important and significant, even if there are key issues on which our positions absolutely do not coincide," the Israeli Embassy in Moscow said

French armed forces participate in repulsion of Iranian missile attack on Israel — MFA

France continues to call for a de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East and urges the parties to the conflict to cease hostilities

Administration reports active fighting near liberated Vishnevoye in Kharkov Region

This is the first liberated settlement of the Izyum district

Russian Su-25 attack aircraft wipe out Ukrainian army stronghold in Kursk area

According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, the strike was delivered by air-launched missiles against reconnoitered targets

Strategic stability dialogue with US not possible amid hostile policies — Russian diplomat

Maria Zakharova explained that Moscow opposed the idea of "holding talks in isolation from military and political realities"

Ukrainian lawmaker says Zelensky will end up in prison

According to Artyom Dmitruk, the conflict could have been ended as long ago as March 2022

Israel to respond to Iran strikes within 'days' — news outlet

Israel "is going to respond on its own," but wants to coordinate its plans with the US in the context of the "strategic implications" of the situation, the publication pointed out

IN BRIEF: World awaits Israeli response as Iran says 'not afraid of war'

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the attack targeted Israeli military facilities only, while Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant described the country's defenses against the massive Iranian missile attack as "successful"

Iran fires over 500 missiles at Israel — newspaper

Earlier, the Israeli army said that Iran had launched a missile attack on the country

Iran made big mistake by attacking Israel, will pay for it — Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister said the Iranian attack failed

Israel to continue powerful strikes across Middle East on Tuesday night

The Israeli and US air defense systems operated effectively, Israel Defense Forces Spokesman Daniel Hagari said

New NATO Secretary General Rutte 'proven Russia hater' — diplomat

"That said, we should probably expect even harsher anti-Russian rhetoric; but we will definitely see nothing constructive," Maria Zakharova noted

Conflict US escalating with Russia may 'destroy the entire world' — Tucker Carlson

"In a year, no one could be alive if we continue sleep-walking into a wider war with Russia," the reporter emphasized

Iran warns Israel of infrastructure destruction in case of retaliatory measures

Israeli authorities reported earlier that Iran delivered a massive missile attack

China, Russia to jointly contribute to global peace, stability — President Xi

Xi Jinping said he intends to use the anniversary "to promote the high-quality development and modernization of the two countries"

Armenia calculates all risks regarding pullout from CSTO — foreign minister

Ararat Mirzoyan also recalled that "Armenia has frozen its membership of the CSTO" and "is not going to restore the relations that existed before"

Israel's tough response to Iran to result in loss of control, serious escalation — expert

Shu Meng believes this time that Iran's actions were due to both internal and external factors

Russian troops liberate Verkhnekamenskoye community in Donbass region over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup South inflicted roughly 855 casualties on Ukrainian troops and destroyed an enemy ammunition depot in its area of responsibility over the past day

Bold Russian jet maneuver near Alaska shows who ‘rules the roost’ — analyst

Accordnig to the expert, "It's not so much about professionalism as the extreme courage"

US will be persuading Israel not to take radical measures against Iran — expert

At the same time, according to Vladimir Sazhin, the Ukrainian agenda will not fade away for the West even in case of a further surge of tensions in the region

Putin, Xi exchange congratulations on 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations

"Lasting good-neighborliness, comprehensive strategic coordination, and mutually beneficial cooperation have become the most essential features of bilateral ties between China and Russia," the Chinese president said

Russia ready for long-term confrontation with US — Deputy Foreign Minister

"We are sending warning signals to our opponent so that they don’t underestimate our determination," Sergey Ryabkov said

Seven Israelis killed, sixteen injured after gunmen unleash terror in Tel Aviv — police

The police further reported that "suspected accomplices of the terrorists were detained overnight in a neighborhood in Hebron"

Chevron resumes gas production and supplies from Tamar and Leviathan platforms in Israel

"Any questions regarding the current security situation should be addressed to the appropriate Israeli governmental authorities," the company said

Iran 'crosses red line' with attack on Israel — Israeli Foreign Minister

"The support and solidarity from leaders and nations around the world will never be forgotten," Israel Katz said

Russian Su-35 jets back aviation striking Ukrainian military facilities in Kursk Region

"The crews of the Su-35 fighter jets patrolled the ordered areas and backed the bomber and assault aviation, as well as army helicopters striking Ukrainian military facilities and equipment," the ministry said

Russia has no plans of introducing visa restrictions for US citizens — diplomat

Visa restrictions will not be introduced despite the controversial policy of the US administration, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Consular Department Head Alexey Klimov said

US, NATO unleash new war in Middle East — Iranian expert

According to Ruhollah Modabber, Western and US supporters are too careless, if they think that the Israeli military operation is temporary

Lavrov holds meeting with Arab ambassadors — Foreign Ministry

"During the exchange of views on the evolving situation in the Middle East, the main attention was paid to the ongoing unprecedented escalation of violence," Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said

Press review: Iran rains down missiles on Israel and Rutte takes helm as captain of NATO

Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, October 2nd

Mother of Russian POW being blackmailed with her son's torture

Valentina Ivanchenko says she has been repeatedly shown her son abused and tortured in real time

Europe will soon turn to the side of peaceful settlement of Ukrainian conflict — Orban

The West jumped into Ukrainian-Russian conflict recklessly based on miscalculations and a misguided strategy, the Hungarian Prime Minister noted

Iranian attack on Israel continues, army detects launches, intercepts missiles — army

The people are instructed "to remain in a protected space until further notice"

Kremlin spokesman says Israel has no role for UN in Middle East settlement

Dmitry Peskov added that "the situation is extremely tense in the region," calling on "everyone for restraint"

Israeli-Iranian conflict unlikely to escalate into a large-scale war — expert

Boris Dolgov stressed that, despite the low probability of a full-scale war, new strikes by Israel and Iran are not ruled out

Israeli soldiers advance 400 meters into Lebanon, then withdraw — army

Earlier, the Al Mayadeen TV channel reported that a Lebanese soldier was killed near Machghara in the western Bekaa region when an Israeli missile hit his house

Iran did not inform US of strike on Israel, Iranian mission to UN says

According to its statement, made available to journalists, Iran has not informed the US but sent a serious warning following the attack

Liberation of Ugledar paving way to large lithium deposit — expert

"Full-scale lithium production on already explored reserves can be an important element of replenishing the budget of the Donetsk People’s Republic and significantly help the Western countries in making the energy transition," Nikolay Novik noted

Hezbollah says its fighters engage in battles with Israeli army in southern Lebanon

The movement said that the Israeli army unit had been forced to retreat due to the losses it suffered

Iran attacked Mossad headquarters, two Israeli airbases, says chief of General Staff

Iran also attacked radars of anti-missile systems and clusters of Israeli tanks

Ukrainian army controls less than one percent of LPR territory, military expert says

Andrey Marochko specified that "a small piece of land" in the Svatovo and Kremennaya area remained under Ukraine’s control

Middle East conflicts to cease after US, Europe withdraw from region — Iran's leader

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei noted that the root cause of all regional problems is the presence of Western forces in the Middle East who act as "false claimants of peace and tranquility"

Iran to come up with ‘more powerful response’ if Israel retaliates — Iranian top diplomat

According to Abbas Araghchi, operation is considered complete until "the Israeli regime decides to resort to a new act of retaliation"

US directly responsible for developments in Middle East — Foreign Ministry

On the evening of October 1, the IRGC launched a massive ballistic and hypersonic missile attack against Israel in retaliation for the deaths of top leaders of the Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC groups

Russia postpones first launch of new Soyuz-5 carrier rocket to 2026

The Soyuz-5 is an advanced Russian medium-class carrier rocket, which is being developed to deliver automatic spacecraft to near-Earth orbits

Russian troops advance: situation in Kursk Region

The Russian military repelled two Ukrainian attempts to break through the border towards Novy Put

Poland at risk of direct confrontation with Russia, Belarus — Medvedev

According to the politician, "Poland's reckless actions, if rashly supported by its NATO allies, may have far-reaching dangerous consequences for the entire world"

Georgian president refuses to sign bill banning LGBT propaganda into law

Under Georgian laws, the parliament’s speaker can sign the bill into law instead

Ukraine’s General Staff admits tense frontline situation amid loss of Ugledar

Ukraine’s General Staff also admitted that Russia had an advantage in manpower and military equipment

Unrecovered bodies of European mercenaries litter Kursk fields — Russian MP

According to Viktor Vodolatsky, the West needed the Ukrainian incursion into the borderline Russian region of Kursk to test how well Russia’s border is protected

Russian troops liberate two communities in Donbass, Kharkov Region over past day

Russia’s Battlegroup North inflicted roughly 95 casualties on Ukrainian troops in its area of responsibility in the Kharkov Region over the past day, the ministry reported

Moscow may expand list of countries citizens of which can move to Russia easier — MFA

Russia approved a list of foreign states and territories that promote destructive neoliberal ideologies contradicting traditional Russian spiritual and moral values, Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's consular department Alexey Klimov noted

Russia successfully conducts last test of Burevestnik strategic missile, says Putin

"Right now, we have actually completed work on advanced strategic weapons that I spoke about and announced several years ago," the head of state specified

Japan to keep sanctions against Russia, continue to support Ukraine — new Foreign Minister

Takeshi Iwaya also noted that "security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region are inseparable" and "any attempt to change the status quo by force anywhere is unacceptable"

Russia's Pantsir to have no problems with shooting down F-16 fighter jet — Rostec

Earlier this year, the manufacturers said that the Pantsir system successfully coped with the destruction of both ATACMS ballistic missiles and Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the special operation

Israel weighs option of talks between Netanyahu, Putin — report

It is reported that the two leaders last spoke in December 2023

Russian troops control larger part of Ugledar in DPR, says politician

Ukrainian troops are already chaotically fleeing Ugledar, Vladimir Rogov said

Turkey unable to resell S-400 to third countries without Russia’s consent — Lavrov

There is the end-user certificate, which is part and parcel of the arms supply contract, the Russian foreign minister noted

Russian-Iranian relations reach all-time high — Foreign Ministry

It is reported that Russian-Iranian ties are friendly

Iran expects stabilization of Middle East situation in coming days — top diplomat

Abbas Araghchi stressed that Iran had hit only military facilities and did not hit civilian infrastructure

Russia’s Aerospace Forces deliver strikes on three militant bases in Syria

Over the past 24 hours, the "coalition" has violated the December 9, 2019 deconfliction protocols six times

Israel to give large-scale response to Iranian attack — envoy to Russia

"Yesterday's attack on Israel by Iran is an act capable of igniting a full-scale war," Simona Halperin noted when asked about the likelihood of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran

Lithuania nixes economic treaties with Russia, Belarus

Speaking in the parliament, one of the initiators of the move, Vilius Semeska, claimed that economic cooperation is impossible

United States sanctions seven individuals, two legal entities from Russia

Inclusion in the list of restrictions entails the freezing of assets in the United States and banning American citizens and companies from doing business with the sanctioned persons and entities

Russia calls for immediate cessation of hostilities in Middle East — ambassador to Israel

Anatoly Viktorov pointed to the fact that a meeting of the UN Security Council "will probably take place today" and "a lot will depend on the position that the US will take this time"

Ukraine’s Khortitsa battlegroup admits troop withdrawal from Ugledar in Donbass region

The Khortitsa battlegroup claimed that it was withdrawing troops to gain positions for further battles

Israeli foreign minister says Iran’s missile attack ‘crossed a red line’

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz thanked some international politicians that expressed support to Israel

Ukrainian losses: situation in Kursk Region

The Russian troops are systematically liberating the Kursk Region, clearing it of Ukrainian servicemen, Akhmat Special Forces Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov said

Japanese PM's idea of 'Asian NATO' may be considered, foreign minister says

Takeshi Iwaya recognized that Japan's constitution currently restricts the exercise of collective self-defense for protecting other nations, noting that the Indo-Pacific region presents distinct challenges compared to Europe, as each country has unique political, economic, and security systems that must be considered

Russian army in Donbass moves at 'unseen pace,' Finnish analyst tells The Washington Post

The Russian army’s greatest advances "occurred from mid-August to mid-September, coinciding with the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region," Pasi Paroinen said

No damage to Israeli Air Force's combat capability following Iranian attack — army

About 180 missiles were fired from Iran at Israel, most of them were intercepted, IDF press service spokeswoman Anna Ukolova said

Russian forces clear Ugledar in Donbass region of Ukrainian troops — defense circles

Kiev has sustained "heavy losses" due to its refusal to withdraw its troops from the city when it was possible, the source said

Iran vows to hit Israel even harder if further provoked — top defense official

On the evening of October 1, the IRGC launched a massive ballistic and hypersonic missile attack against Israel in retaliation for the deaths of top leaders of the Hamas, Hezbollah and IRGC groups

Kremlin working out Putin’s trip to G20 summit in Brazil

The Russian president has been invited to the G20 summit

Ground operation in Lebanon, threat of wider conflict: tensions escalate in Middle East

Putin has no common topics to discuss with Scholz now — Kremlin

However, Dmitry Peskov said, the Russian president has always been and remains open to dialogue

Russian diplomat sees Middle East escalation as complete failure of Biden’s administration

"A bloody drama that is only gaining momentum", Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said

Nigeria to join BRICS at right time — foreign minister

Nigeria "will do so at the right time when it is the most advantageous for [the country] to do so

Iran proves that Israel's Iron Dome is more fragile than glass — president

Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran does not want war, but is not afraid of it, and "will stop at nothing to protect the country's national security, honor and authority"

France starts training strategic nuclear forces first time in decades — expert

Alexander Stepanov said that the French arsenal, "according to Nuclear Notebook, is about 290 nuclear warheads for three sets of 16 submarine-launched missiles and 54 ASMP-A cruise missiles"

West set to stage chemical weapons use by Syria and Russia in Arab republic — SVR

According to the statement, "the leadership of the United States and Britain, being aware of their failed course towards inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia in the Ukraine conflict," pays special attention to undermining Russia’s prestige in Global South states