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Failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive may lead to West's 'devastating defeat' — UK expert

According to Robert Clark, international supplies of equipment and munitions are drying up and politicians are starting to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections

LONDON, July 19. /TASS/. The Kiev government, backed by the West may, be forced to agree to make territorial concessions to Russia, which would mean their "devastating defeat," an expert of the London-based Civitas think tank, Robert Clark, wrote in an opinion piece for The Daily Telegraph.

"If Kiev fails in its battlefield endeavors to split that land bridge, and retake much of its own territory by winter, then vocal calls of territorial concessions for marginal political outcomes will likely become far more prevalent - not just in Ukraine but likely from western capitals, as so-called "war-fatigue" begins to bite, international stockpiles of equipment and ammunition wither and politicians begin to worry about domestic budgets ahead of national elections," Clark said, adding that "governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions."

In his opinion, the "long-planned counter-offensive, now in its second month, has run into several problems - not least that Kiev is still waiting for approximately half of the western military equipment promised earlier in the year."

"It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians," the expert continued. "This grueling endeavor was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for."

The analyst added that "the variable that isn’t on their [Ukrainian] side is time."

"The fighting will begin to grind to a cold halt as the freezing winter saps troops’ ability to conduct high-intensity warfare. This will only give Russia more time to further build up its defences, as it did last winter," Clark wrote. "By this point in the West, meanwhile, all eyes will be on the upcoming US election, with more political attention diverted by the UK’s general election. Kiev knows it has a shortened window of opportunity to capitalize on its battlefield initiative and take back as much ground as it can."