Press review: What awaits US-Russian dialogue on arms control and Myanmar rocked by coup

Kommersant: Moscow, Washington gear up to resume arms control dialogue

Following the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), Russia and the United States are facing further steps in the sphere of arms control. Both Moscow and Washington say they are open for a discussion on this topic. However, there will be no easy wins like in the case of New START. Both sides face a long and hard struggle without any guaranteed result. The Russian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant that Moscow wants to begin the work as soon as possible. Meanwhile, Russia has made it clear that if the US does not take its requirements into consideration, there will be no meaningful and productive dialogue.

"What’s next? This is a big open issue. We will clear it up in the coming months," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the paper. According to him, it will be impossible to launch the corresponding talks immediately. [President] Joe Biden’s team will need to review its strategy in the sphere of national security, defense, nuclear forces, and determine its policy on Russia. Candidates for key posts at the US State Department and the National Security Council have not been approved yet, so it is still unclear who will be in charge of the talks with Russia. "When the Americans are ready for it - and we hope that will happen relatively quickly - we will contact them immediately and begin to shape a mutually acceptable agenda," Ryabkov emphasized.

Meanwhile, Russian and US experts are calling on both countries to avoid the Trump administration’s mistakes and to waste no time.

"Although New START has been prolonged for five years, it doesn’t actually mean that Moscow and Washington have five years to talk. In 2025, the US might see a change in administration, which would wipe out all achievements. In the months leading up to the election, the Americans do not tend to be too active," PIR Center expert Andrey Baklitsky told Kommersant. "And we shouldn’t forget that the development of technologies and the deployment of new weapons has not stopped. So there really is no time to waste."

For his part, political expert and professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Pavel Sevostyanov thinks that in the future, it will be Russia and the US who will determine the rules of conduct in the field of arms control, since they possess over 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. "And if the sides go back to constructive dialogue at least in this sphere, despite differences in other areas, they may very well reach some agreements on restricting new types of weapons, including hypersonic weapons, and alleviate threats in, say, cyberspace," he told Kommersant.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has made it clear to Kommersant that Russia is ready for such a dialogue. "As our Chinese colleagues say, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. And we must take this step," he concluded.

Izvestia: Military stages coup in Myanmar

On the morning of February 1, Myanmar’s military announced that the country’s president Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as other members of the ruling party of Myanmar National League for Democracy (NLD), had been detained. After that, Myanmar’s military declared a state of emergency for one year. The army said that the decision had been triggered by election fraud. The latest vote handed a resounding victory to the NLD, which is led by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Western countries immediately condemned the situation in Myanmar as a coup, while neighboring countries had a more reserved reaction to the events, Izvestia reports.

Immediately after introducing a state of emergency, the military promised that a new election would be held in the country within a year. However, Michal Lubina, a Polish expert on Myanmar from Krakow’s Jagiellonian University, noted that the military would likely to stall the election. They will promise to hold a vote but won’t actually organize an election, just like in the 1990s and in the 2000s.

The expert noted that Myanmar is sliding back into the past, with the West bound to criticize Myanmar or even introduce sanctions against it and China benefiting from protecting the country. This is a lose-lose situation for everyone in Myanmar, including the military. It is difficult to rule by force but have no authority, the expert told Izvestia.

The situation in Myanmar may even benefit Russia. Less than two weeks ago, Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces Min Aung Hlaing, who has now become the de-facto leader of the country, met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Thanks to that visit, Myanmar agreed to purchase a number of weapons from Russia.

It is likely that the West will want to slap sanctions on Myanmar, and so the country will be at the mercy of China and Russia at the UN Security Council, Lubina noted. The generals would not want to depend solely on China, so they will need Russia as well, he added. This opens up a window of opportunity for diplomatic and political concessions to Moscow, with some beneficial arms deals to be expected, the expert concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Navalny may be charged under new amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code

On February 2, the Moscow City Court will decide on whether to replace Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny’s sentence with a real one, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports, adding that in the meantime, the Russian State Duma may approve an amendment to the Russian Criminal Code that would stipulate a penalty for promoting Western sanctions against Russia. This concerns regular citizens, so Navalny and his supporters may be the first people to face these charges, the newspaper says.

Meanwhile, the unauthorized protests in support of Navalny continue. It seems that the blogger’s sympathizers will see the upcoming court session as a starting point for a further strategy. They may decide to keep up the demands to free Navalny, with weekly rallies planned ahead, or to abandon the concept of Belarusian-style protests and move towards targeted street activity, for example, in the run-up to the election, the newspaper suggests.

It seems highly likely that the Russian judicial system will throw the book at Navalny. If the court satisfies the appeal of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service to swap his suspended sentence for a real one, the opposition figure probably will not head to a correction facility. He will remain at a temporary detention facility, with additional criminal cases pending against him. The opposition figure may face charges of money laundering at the Anti-Corruption Fund, which was earlier declared a foreign agent and now is suspected of embezzling its own funds that it had received through donations.

And finally, a new article of the Criminal Code may be created especially for Navalny and his supporters, Nezavisimaya Gazeta says. This presents the possibility of criminal proceedings against those agreeing to heed Western sanctions against Russia or promote the sanctions through any sort of information or propaganda.

The majority of experts and analysts cannot come to a conclusion on what is really happening and what the protests in Russian society will lead to. The logic of Navalny, who essentially surrendered to the government, does not seem fully clear either.

The newspaper ponders whether one can be an effective protest leader from behind bars. Theoretically, yes, if one becomes an indisputable protest symbol, like Nelson Mandela, however, Navalny is far from that at this point. Then his motivation is unclear, as there cannot be any hope that the government will drop criminal charges against him. EU members may demand that Putin release Navalny, however, Putin has not succumbed to Western pressure for the past 20 years, successfully converting external pressure into a more conservative and even reactionary domestic policy in Russia, the paper says.

However, the government must have no doubts that the material causes behind the rallies are a real force driving the protests and this movement is obviously likely to grow. The opposition blogger is just an excuse for dissatisfied citizens to make their voices heard, Nezavisimaya Gazeta concludes.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: South Yemen looking for political capital in Moscow

A delegation representing the Southern Transitional Council, a secessionist organization in Yemen, started its visit to Moscow on February 1 to discuss the prospects of stabilization in Yemen with Russian politicians. Despite the fact that the separatists, widely supported by the UAE, managed to reach an accord with Yemen’s government supported by Saudi Arabia and even establish joint government bodies, South Yemen still needs to expand its foreign policy capital, experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Senior Lecturer at the Political Science Department of the Higher School of Economics Grigory Lukyanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta the visit of the Southern Transitional Council’s delegation to Moscow is rather straightforward. "We need to remember the relatively recent events, when the Southern Transitional Council was just formed and when a conflict emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE," the commentator noted. At present, the council’s leadership embarked on a diplomatic tour of sorts in order to establish mutual understanding and contact with all key actors who, from their point of view and from the point of view of their allies - the UAE, are significant, in order to at least reach positive neutrality, if support is not gained."

According to Lukyanov, the political strife continues, and in this regard, it is always good to gain more foreign policy capital. "The role of Russia in the Middle East has expanded in the past five years," the expert said. "Despite some stagnation, Moscow’s clout is sufficient for it to become a must-visit place for any politicians in the run-up to important processes, especially in such states like Yemen and Libya. Libya plans to hold an election this year, and we see how often politicians from this country have visited Moscow in the past few months. I think that in this regard, the arrival of the Southern Transitional Council’s delegation to Moscow shouldn’t be overestimated, just like their first visit."

The most important thing is that South Yemen has established the necessary contacts with Moscow, and that they are being maintained to this day, the commentator added. "The Southern Traditional Council is using the current situation to strengthen their positions. In any case, the news of its delegation being welcomed in Moscow will be used to improve its reputation and image," Lukyanov concluded.

Kommersant: Ukraine renews import of Russian power

Ukraine has renewed importing Russian power at certain hours due to cold weather and a lack of coal at local thermal power stations, Kommersant reports. The volume is not that significant, but this may be beneficial to the Ukrainian consumer, as Russian power costs about $25 per 1 MWt/hour. Nevertheless, Kiev is discussing the possibility to once again ban imports from Russia, which can help Ukrainian power companies raise tariffs and load up their own thermal power stations, experts suggest.

Ukraine periodically introduces bans on importing Russian power and then lifts it when required. The supply first stopped in 2015, and in 2019, it was resumed for several months. In mid-December 2020, Ukraine’s state regulator on energy once again received the greenlight to import power from Russia and Belarus.

The volume from Russia is not that significant, reaching about 1% of Ukraine’s peak consumption, Sergei Rozhenko, a power sector guru with KPMG Russia, told the paper.

"The supply looks like a commercial one, as emergency assistance would likely have a different, more even schedule. With this schedule, the cost price of the purchase on the Russian wholesale energy market will reach about 1,800-1,900 rubles per 1 MWt/hours (or $23-25), which is rather cheap, and the supply may be stimulated by purely economic reasons," the expert stated.

It is unclear for how long Ukrainian consumers will be able to buy Russian power, as in December 2020, a draft bill was submitted to Ukraine’s parliament which proposes restricting energy import from Russia and Belarus to ensure Ukraine’s energy independence.

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