Kommersant: No progress on Donbass one year after first-ever Putin-Zelensky summit
A year after the first and so far only meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky it is clear that an attempt to come to terms on Donbass has failed, Kommersant writes citing negotiators. The Russian Foreign Ministry is convinced that neither Kiev nor its Western allies are really seeking peace. Ukraine is trying to deflect attention and pin the blame on Russia’s "uncompromising" stance. However, if the Ukrainian leadership’s goal was to refuse carrying out the political part of the Minsk peace deal, then Kiev has accomplished its mission and is planning to up the sanctions pressure on Russia.
Trading accusations is part and parcel of the Russian-Ukrainian dialogue on Donbass. However, as this year draws to a close another recurrent phenomenon has emerged in bilateral relations. Kiev keeps saying that it’s impossible to implement the Minsk agreements in their current form and is calling to review the document. Vladimir Fesenko, who heads the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, is sure that the conflict cannot be resolved on the basis of the current agreements. "It’s impossible to find 300 votes in the parliament in favor of the special status [of Donbass] even if Zelensky wanted it," the expert noted. "This is the political reality in Ukraine. Another reality is that Zelensky understands that any compromise, which will be rejected by the public, will trigger a crisis."
Despite the deadlock on the status of Donbass, talks continue within the Trilateral Contact Group on ironing out the crisis in eastern Ukraine and among the advisers to the leaders of the Normandy Four group (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany). In comment on Kiev’s Plan B on Donbass, which the country’s Security Council is due to approve early next year, Fesenko said: "Maybe they will invent something - an attractive option with a beautiful name." However, there are simply two real scenarios of how the events will unfold, he noted. "A ceasefire will be observed and there will be some steps towards freezing the conflict or an attempt will be made to come to terms [with Moscow]." There could also be an attempt to renew the Minsk agreements through a "roadmap," but mediators are needed here. If they suggest something, then this could be the way out, he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Iran calls on Moscow to prepare for SWIFT cutoff
Iran, which has faced real US sanctions, is calling on Russia to create a substitute for the SWIFT international banking-payment system for the member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia’s substitute for SWIFT now has 28 times fewer participants than the international system, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Tehran’s initiative comes amid fears that the Biden administration would seek to make anti-Russian sanctions more effective.
Last year, Iran and Russia connected their national systems of transferring financial messages (Russia’s SPFS and Iran’s SEPAM) without using SWIFT. Russian officials are also talking about creating their own systems of settlements. So far, Russia’s SPFS has less than 400 participants, and this is next to nothing compared with SWIFT, which involves nearly 11,000 major organizations in more than 200 countries, the newspaper writes. According to chief analyst at Alor Broker Alexei Antonov, SPFS was created hastily and its functions are very limited as it can process just 50 types of messages, half as much as SWIFT. Russia’s SPFS also failed to offer a flexible system of tariffs, the expert noted.
The major challenge for such counterparts is to become popular, said Sergei Khestanov, a senior lecturer at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. "SWIFT’s strength is that it is widespread and not about some special features," he noted. "If a SWIFT substitute can attract foreign clients, then it can be a real rival. It’s hard to become an alternative quickly because of the global nature of the task. However, as far as countries and trade alliances go the goal can be achieved." SPFS has a chance for a breakthrough amid the risk of Russia’s cutoff from the international system. "Iran was cut off from it and that’s why it is lobbying for switching to SPFS, but Russia still has an alternative and basically, there are no objective reasons to dump SWIFT at its own initiative," Antonov said, warning that the cutoff would deal a heavy blow to Russia’s companies and banks.
Izvestia: Biden picks first Black Pentagon chief
US ‘President-elect’ Joe Biden has selected retired US Army General Lloyd Austin to run the Pentagon. The general could become the first Black defense secretary. Despite his high posts in the US Army, Austin gave almost no interviews and did not reveal his views on US foreign policy. As a nominee for Secretary of Defense, in a certain sense he is a "dark horse" and his policy, including on Russia, could come as a surprise for many, Izvestia writes.
After his retirement, Austin joined the board of directors at Raytheon Technologies, a global arms corporation and a major US supplier of weapons and military equipment, Russian International Affairs Council expert Ilya Kramnik noted. According to him, any top representative from the US military-industrial complex could have been in place of Lloyd. Head of the Center for North American Studies at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Viktoria Zhuravlyova highlights that a Biden team would significantly differ from the Trump administration. Biden is returning to a traditional scheme, which Trump had attempted to break, that is cooperation between elites of different levels. "It is expected that this will result in greater effectiveness in the overall management mechanism and greater performance," she said.
Meanwhile, Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research, in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, noted that despite the serious difference between the administration of the current and incoming US presidents, they share a stance on one issue, namely the Pentagon and the US defense budget.
It took Biden a long time to pick the new Pentagon chief amid pressure from various groups of influence in Congress. Some 43% of US troops are represented by minorities. Meanwhile, in most cases they are under the command of White Americans. The African-American lobby is sure that a Black Pentagon chief could balance this situation.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Belarusian leader banned from Olympic Games
While the European Union is discussing the third package of economic sanctions against Belarusian officials, in a surprise move, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) delivered the first blow. Money for Belarus' athletes will bypass the Belarusian National Olympic Committee. In addition, President Alexander Lukashenko is prohibited from going to Tokyo’s Olympic Games, Nezavisismaya Gazeta writes.
The IOC concluded that the National Olympic Committee’s leadership did not defend Belarusian athletes from political discrimination inside the organization. This runs counter to the basic principles of the Olympic Charter and seriously affects the Olympic movement’s image, it said. Therefore, the IOC Executive Committee decided to exclude Head of the National Olympic Committee Lukashenko from taking part in all IOC’s events. In turn, Lukashenko branded the IOC as a "gang" and threatened to challenge this decision in court. The Belarusian leader’s press service hinted that IOC chief Thomas Bach had not made this decision on his own.
Any decisions regarding the field of sports are a vulnerable point for Lukashenko as it has remained free from sanctions for a rather long time and was really beyond politics. Despite a visa ban, Lukashenko traveled to Europe as the head of the National Olympic Committee, while Belarusian achievements in sports gave him a chance to have contact with world leaders. "Certainly, this insults Lukashenko because sports is one of his favorite toys. In general, dictators exaggerate the role of sports, politicize it and turn it into a cult. Lukashenko is not an exception here. He is very hurt now, he understands that this could be just the beginning," political analyst Alexander Klaskovsky said.
Besides, Belarus is due to host another sports event, the 2021 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship. The fate of this event will be decided in the coming weeks.
RBC: Russia spends less on anti-crisis measures than major economies
Russia’s government spending on handling the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis in 2020 lags behind the world’s major economies, and in 2021-2023 no large-scale support of the economic growth through public expenditure is expected, according to the National Credit Ratings agency, RBC writes.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s budget spending on healthcare and crisis-hit economic sectors reached 2.4% of GDP, while Canada, the US and Australia earmarked 12% of GDP on average. Russia is followed by India (1.8% of GDP), Turkey (0.8% of GDP) and Mexico (0.7% of GDP). Among G20 countries, Russia is second from the last (Indonesia and Mexico) in terms of anti-crisis packages.
Last week, Alfa-Bank economists also said that the expected budget policy tightening was a factor for cautious assessments on the prospects of Russia’s economic growth in 2021. The bank predicts it at 2.5% versus the Economic Development Ministry's forecast of 3.3%.
After the 2020 economic slump, the economic growth can be expected next year, but the trajectory of an economic recovery is still unclear as the pandemic will keep affecting the economy in the first quarter of 2021, said Alfa-Bank’s chief economist Natalya Orlova. Anticipated spending in 2021 will be less than under the budget projected in 2018-2019 and some 3 trln rubles ($40.9 bln) less than the pre-crisis plan for 2021, according to a draft federal budget.
Meanwhile, the Russian National Wealth Fund in March-November 2020 grew from $123 bln to $167 bln. The Finance Ministry refused to use this fund to bankroll anti-crisis measures.
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