MOSCOW, August 18. /TASS/. The US is scaling back its presence around the world, focusing its forces near Iran; Washington has resumed talks on Gaza; and Europe has run out of new options for an original sanctions package against Russia. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: How war with Iran reduces US presence around globe
The US is significantly reducing its participation in joint annual military exercises with South Korea, as they are costly and hinder the normalization of dialogue with North Korea, US President Donald Trump stated on August 17. He emphasized that one of the factors influencing his decision was his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, the US continues to bolster its military presence near Iran.
According to political scientist and US affairs expert Malek Dudakov, the reduction in joint exercises reflects a growing crisis in relations between Washington and Seoul. "We have been observing these crisis developments for more than a month now, but they are now reaching a point that is obvious to everyone," the expert told Vedomosti. He cited disagreements over South Korea’s promised investments in the US economy as one of the reasons: Seoul had previously announced plans to invest $350 billion. However, according to Dudakov, these plans were never carried out.
Another point of contention remains the cost of the US military presence. South Korea currently pays Washington about $1 billion a year, while Trump, according to Dudakov’s assessment, is insisting on increasing the amount to $3-5 billion. "So far, no agreement has been reached, and the issue remains unresolved," the expert pointed out.
The White House’s decision may also have been influenced by the Iranian factor, he stressed. US allies are in no hurry to support Washington in its actions against Iran, and American resources, including Patriot missile systems, are being shifted from Asia to the Middle East. Against this backdrop, "the Americans are gradually scaling back their military involvement on the Korean Peninsula," which the world may perceive as a sign of a declining US position, Dudakov emphasized.
The reduction in joint exercises with South Korea may reflect the US desire to restart negotiations with North Korea, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said. According to the expert, this would signify a continuation of the diplomatic track that Trump attempted to establish during his first presidential term. At the same time, the US leader may have been reacting to Seoul’s refusal to support Washington in a military operation against Iran. "Trump is simply giving them a taste of their own medicine," Koshkin pointed out. He also noted that the US president is currently focused on the Middle East and does not want to "spread himself too thin" with military exercises until the Iranian issue is resolved. According to Trump, this approach fits into a broader policy of scaling back the US presence in lower-priority regions, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: US resumes Gaza settlement process
The situation in the Gaza Strip has gained new momentum: the US has reentered negotiations to promote the implementation of the second phase of the settlement. US special envoy Jared Kushner has coordinated efforts with all parties to the conflict. The process is underway, but achieving the complete disarmament of Hamas has not yet been achieved, and until then, Tel Aviv will not make concessions on the issue of troop withdrawal. Experts emphasize that achieving long-term peace in the Middle East is currently impossible: Washington is only attempting to settle the situation in the Gaza Strip, while completely ignoring the problem in the West Bank.
First and foremost, the parties disagree on the sequence of steps toward a settlement. Washington proposes withdrawing Israeli troops alongside the disarmament of Hamas. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that not a single soldier will leave the region until the Palestinian group’s arsenals have been completely destroyed. The new round of talks has not settled the issue. "Negotiations on the second phase are ongoing, but the main issue remains unresolved: Israel demands the actual disarmament of Hamas before any troop withdrawal," Netanyahu’s adviser Dmitry Gendelman told Izvestia. "No retreat from the ‘yellow line’ is anticipated or will occur until Hamas is genuinely disarmed," he noted.
However, the Gaza issue is not the only reason for Kushner’s visit to Israel, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, stressed.
The parties will also discuss the confrontation with Iran. Trump cannot withdraw from the conflict without new agreements: the Republican politician was rash enough to publicly call ex-president Barack Obama’s previous nuclear deal the worst in history. As a result, the US administration has backed itself into a corner: Trump needs to conclude a new agreement with Tehran on more favorable terms. To do so, the White House needs the support of key Middle Eastern states, but Washington cannot fully rely on that support due to the unresolved crisis in Gaza, the expert stressed.
Meanwhile, the US congressional elections are drawing near, and there is nothing to show voters on the Middle East front. Any unfulfilled promises by the US leader, including a settlement in the enclave, will seriously hurt the Republican Party. In this regard, there is a slight chance of a "Trump-style" deal on Gaza, international relations expert Yelena Suponina pointed out. This would involve signing a framework document with general wording, which would be presented as a solid agreement but would not be implemented in practice and would lead to a new escalation. At the same time, a long-term peace agreement between Israel and Hamas is not to be expected. The problem is not being addressed at its core, since the current negotiations concern only the Gaza Strip, which constitutes only a small portion of the territory designated for a Palestinian state, the expert emphasized.
Izvestia: Europe exhausts new and original means of exerting pressure on Russia
The EU has exhausted all its options for exerting pressure on Russia. As a result, the most extensive expansion of sanctions lists since the start of the conflict in Ukraine is now underway. The draft of the 22nd sanctions package is scheduled to be unveiled in September. Ireland, which currently holds the EU Council presidency, hopes to adopt the package at the earliest opportunity. The bloc may step up pressure on the banking sector and maritime transport. In any case, Russia will adapt to the new restrictions.
Meanwhile, Western diplomats acknowledge that the list of sectors where new restrictions can be imposed is becoming shorter. In July, European media outlets reported, citing sources, that the EU had identified the "last potential areas" for new sanctions. Moreover, the adoption of new packages continues to face significant disagreements. However, the EU has fewer and fewer avenues for new restrictions. Simply expanding the sanctions lists no longer has a significant effect, Russian International Affairs Council program coordinator Polina Chupriyanova told Izvestia.
At the same time, the expert noted the EU still has some opportunities to exert pressure on Russia’s foreign trade and financial infrastructure. Restrictions could be expanded to cover regional financial institutions. Another area of focus is maritime transport. In the 21st sanctions package, the EU authorized the sale of confiscated Russian oil. It is unclear how this measure will work in practice, but it could ease the EU’s future tasks, Chupriyanova added.
The Russian president, however, warned that if such actions are taken, Moscow may respond and detain European vessels wherever it deems necessary. "Fears regarding potential incidents at sea are certainly justified, especially since the EU is stepping up its efforts to combat the so-called Russian shadow fleet," European Parliament member Diana Sosoaca stressed.
Ultimately, the new restrictions are unlikely to significantly alter the situation. In the case of maritime transport, they may at best make exports more expensive and more difficult, but they will not stop them entirely. The new measures against banks will also force Russian companies to use more lengthy chains of intermediaries. On the other hand, they will likely speed up the creation of alternative and independent payment channels.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Why shipping costs are rising and how Russia is seeking alternatives
Shipping costs along major maritime routes around the world have risen significantly due to the conflict in the Middle East and droughts in several countries. Experts believe that, like other countries, Russia will not be able to avoid the associated challenges but will be able to swiftly switch to alternative logistics routes.
"The cost of maritime shipping is rising because it reflects the risks posed by the choke points that currently exist in international trade flows," economic research expert Alexander Abramov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. In this case, choke points are routes through the Panama Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, and other passages.
The expert explained that ocean freight rates may include a surcharge for increased risk if armed conflicts break out at sea. Of course, in this case, the cost of transporting cargo will rise. "Yes, and Russian companies will pay a little more for shipping goods via dangerous routes or using alternative ones," Abramov noted.
The greatest challenge for Russia is not the higher tariffs but the EU’s sanctions that limit transit capacity. For example, tensions periodically arise between the EU and Russia over ship inspections. This creates difficulties in exporting Russian oil, grain, and other products through the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The expert stressed that transit capacity through the Baltic Sea is also partly limited for Russia. "On the other hand, new opportunities are emerging. These include, for example, growing demand for the Northern Sea Route," Abramov pointed out.
Other countries can also identify alternative shipping routes. Therefore, although the rising cost of transportation is an important factor, it is not a decisive one in terms of prices for fuel and other key commodities, the source concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Future of Moroccan migrants stuck in Spain’s Ceuta
Officials in Madrid and Brussels are doing their utmost to resolve the crisis that arose in late July, when tens of thousands of Moroccans breached the Spanish and EU border near the city of Ceuta. The undocumented migrants who remained in this Spanish enclave in North Africa staged a protest. Their main demand is to be granted asylum instead of being deported to Morocco.
The migrants’ dreams of a more comfortable life will be shattered by the harsh reality: neither Spain nor Europe is ready to accept them. Meanwhile, the Spanish and EU authorities will have to decide what to do with the thousands of undocumented migrants still remaining in the city.
"The Spanish government is the most left-wing in all of Europe. It makes decisions based not only on economic expediency but also under the influence of ideological factors. [Prime Minister Pedro] Sanchez and his cabinet have a somewhat different approach to addressing the migration problem as a whole than most Western European governments," Yekaterina Cherkasova, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to the expert, Spain posted the highest economic growth rate among all OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries last year. "Sanchez believes that achieving such growth rates is impossible without attracting foreign labor," Cherkasova emphasized.
The expert pointed out that undocumented migrants from the enclave were not removed by police. Most of them left of their own accord. Ceuta is a very small territory with a population of about 80,000. After the influx, the number of people there nearly doubled. "The migrants had nothing to eat or drink and nowhere to sleep. They found that conditions in Ceuta were even worse than those they were trying to flee from," the analyst stressed.
"The Spanish government will have to deal with the aftermath of the crisis. Ceuta is unable to resolve them on its own and has already requested financial assistance from Madrid. And Madrid, in turn, will ask Brussels for funding," Cherkasova noted. Spain can count on EU assistance on the grounds that the remaining migrants are interested in settling in other European countries. They view Spain not as the final destination of their journey, but as a transit country on the way to Germany, Sweden, and other countries with more favorable reception conditions. "There are no camps in Ceuta that could accommodate such a large number of people. This means there is a possibility that the undocumented migrants will still have to be transported to the mainland and accommodated somewhere there," Cherkasova concluded.
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