Izvestia: Amid repairs of Nord Stream 1, gas prices may surge to $2,200
Cutting gas supplies via Nord Stream 1 during its scheduled repairs from July 11 through July 21 may result in price hikes on the European market despite the return of a Siemens turbine from Canada, according to expert forecasts. The specialists think that 1,000 cubic meters of gas may reach the price of $2,200, while as of July 8, it was about $1,800. The process of returning and installing the turbines may take time over political differences with Canada and additional technical checkups. Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action told Izvestia that they are in touch with Ottawa on this issue while Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson confirmed that his country will return the equipment. Europe has nothing to replace Russian gas with given that up to 46% of its supplies come from Moscow and it is complicated to use LNG for this purpose since its volumes are insufficient, the analysts say.
Executive Director of the Capital Market Department at Univer Capital Artem Tuzov doubts that the Siemens turbines will return to Nord Stream 1 anytime soon. Some time will be needed to check all systems as well, he added. "The return won’t be swift. It will take from two to four weeks to return them to Gazprom and then there is a long period of testing the turbines to see how properly they were repaired. Nobody would want to install the turbines that risk breaking down after repairs in an unfriendly country. Thus, the realistic time of launching the turbines and returning Nord Stream 1 to its designed capacity is two-three months. So, the risk of growing gas prices in Europe remains," he said.
Earlier, GIIGNL, the international group of LNG importers, forecasted that the EU will keep experiencing problems with gas deficit for the next couple of winters.
"Russia’s share of natural gas supplies to Europe is up to 46%, and the EU simply has nothing to replace it with," BitRiver Financial Analyst Vladislav Antonov maintained. In his opinion, amid the deficit of energy products and high prices, the authorities will curb the supplies of hot water, dim street lights, close swimming pools and shut down energy-consuming equipment. Due to its lack of foresight, instead of green energy, Europe will have to switch to non-ecological coal, he added.
Additionally, Europe may shut down its more energy-intensive enterprises, above all, in the chemical industry, according to Associate Professor at the Russian Government’s Financial University Valery Andrianov. Nevertheless, the main burden will be borne by ordinary people who will have to pay much higher power bills and possibly really freeze next winter, he concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Sri Lankan president leaves behind economy in tatters
The colossal political and economic debacle in Sri Lanka that surfaced against the background of a severe deficit of energy products, inflation and the country’s inability to pay its debts led to an overthrow of the government. On Saturday, thousands in Colombo stormed the residencies of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The country’s leader had to flee and announce that he was stepping down. Yet, this does not brush aside the numerous questions about the nation’s future or ways to resolve the crisis.
Media outlets have not named any possible successors even though some time has already elapsed. Quite possibly, Sri Lankan politicians are in no rush to declare their ambitions due to their lack of any desire to assume responsibility for the serious dilemma in the country, according to Research Fellow of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Rabey.
"If in the short-term perspective Sri Lanka may be helped with the fuel and food crisis then in the long-term it is much sadder considering that the country has nothing to pay its debts with," he stressed.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Japan may reject pacifist Constitution
On Sunday, Japan held elections to the upper chamber of parliament. According to the preliminary results, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito won, garnering additional votes on the wave of emotions following the assassination of the LDP’s former leader Shinzo Abe. This success will make it easier for the current head of government Fumio Kishida to resolve the issue of increased defense spending and quite possibly will help him reconsider the current pacifist constitution, since Abe aspired for the same thing. The final outcome of the ballot will be announced on Monday.
In a conversation with the newspaper, MGIMO professor Dmitry Streltsov noted: "I don’t think that the issue of changing the constitution will be immediately placed on the political agenda. However, there are no doubts that the affinity for the late premier facilitated the fact that more voters came out. It is also clear that this helped the LDP garner more votes."
In response to a question as to how Abe’s death will impact Russian-Japanese relations, the expert said: "I think, it won’t affect it in any way. What Abe was doing on the Russian track is being unequivocally condemned in Japan now. The majority of the Japanese think that it was a failed policy."
Izvestia: Sanctions failing to seriously impact trade with China, Russian envoy says
Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov said that thanks to the specific trade structure and the energy alliance, the barrage of anti-Russia sanctions has not had a critical impact on trade between countries in an interview with Izvestia published on Monday.
"Due to the rather specific structure of our trade, its significance for the economy of both countries goes beyond the framework of purely numerical indicators. For example, in the sphere of energy we have formed, as we say, an energy alliance which not only includes the supplies of hydrocarbons on our part but also their processing, storage and the development of the electric power industry. Thus, the sanctions and the threat of secondary measures do affect our trade and it’s not critical," the envoy stated.
He added that China has companies and banks that are to a small degree or not at all connected with the US-led West or operate on the domestic market or with those countries for whom America’s influence is not a defining factor.
The diplomat noted that China protects its economic interests and "is absolutely not inclined to get involved in charity, it pursues its pragmatic interests, is not going to shoot itself in the foot and does not want to cause itself any harm over the secondary sanctions."
Vedomosti: Government discusses opening new corridors for export of fertilizers
The government, at the request of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, is working on the possibility of boosting the number of exit points on the state border to expand the export of fertilizers, experts told the newspaper.
Lately, Russia’s fertilizer producers have been decreasing the use of Baltic ports though in 2021 they were used to transport about 9 mln tonnes, according to Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA's rating service.
In his opinion, southern export routes, for example, to Brazil, are primarily of interest to the producers of nitric and potassium fertilizers. The transport route is shortened and there are no expenses for the transit to Kaliningrad through Lithuania and Belarus, the expert explained, adding that the alternative is the North-South transport corridor via the Caspian Sea.
According to Finam Management’s Dmitry Baranov, the use of additional port capacities that fertilizer producers are asking for will help increase the deliveries abroad by 10-15%. Yet it will take time to replace the Baltic ports, he added.
According to Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of Infoline-Analytics, in 2022, the most likely option is "reaching agreements to restore transit through the Baltic ports since both the EU, Russia and consumer countries are interested in this." He said that the key problem is the "hardline policy of the Baltic countries, especially with transit to Kaliningrad."
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews