LONDON, November 6. /TASS/. Ukraine risks a demographic collapse as the armed conflict drags on, The Economist reported.
According to the weekly magazine, the population inside Kiev-controlled territory has fallen from about 37 million to 27-28 million since 2022. About 3-5 million Ukrainians now live in Russia, while more than five million have moved to other countries.
According to the Kiev-based Center for Economic Strategy, only 43% of refugees plan to return home, down from 74% in 2022. Combat deaths are estimated at 150,000.
The Economist pointed out that Ukraine’s "fertility rate has dropped from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to 0.8-0.9," while "the replacement rate, needed to keep the population stable, is 2.1." "In the first half of 2026 deaths outnumbered births by more than three to one," the media outlet said. According to a Ukrainian expert, the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is Ukraine’s smallest in modern history.
The Economist noted, citing UN data, that a realistic scenario would see an annual population decline of 0.7-0.9% over the next couple of decades, leaving Ukraine with about 25 million people in 2040, assuming military operations continue into the 2030s. Demographer Svetlana Aksyonova told The Economist that the fertility rate could fall as low as 0.6 children per woman.
According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine faces a labor shortage of 2.5 million people so the country would have to rely on foreign work force.