MOSCOW, August 18. /TASS/. The United States is looking to expand AUKUS by bringing in Japan and South Korea; massive combat losses are sapping Ukrainian forces’ offensive capacity; and the US green-lights the sale of Israeli Arrow-3 anti-missile system to Germany. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US plays bloc builder with AUKUS expansion bid to include Japan and South Korea
The US is making strenuous efforts to expand its influence in Asia, especially through the AUKUS alliance, founded in 2021 as a trilateral security pact among Washington, London and Canberra. The prospects for expanding the alliance are now under discussion, writes Izvestia, with Washington's main Asia-Pacific allies, Japan and South Korea, the likely candidates for an expanded membership. However, the Japanese embassy in Moscow told Izvestia that Tokyo has not yet received an official invitation to join the bloc, but the Japanese government is interested in expanding cooperation with current AUKUS members.
Japan’s diplomatic mission in Moscow acknowledged that, in view of the deteriorating security situation in the region, Tokyo "has consistently supported the efforts of AUKUS to promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region."
The potential admission of new members to the alliance may be one of the main agenda items at the trilateral summit between the leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea on August 18 at US President Joe Biden’s Camp David retreat. At the same time, Moscow warned that adherence to an outmoded bloc-based mentality and Washington's persistent drive for global domination could ultimately lead to a NATO-AUKUS merger in the near future.
According to Kirill Kotkov, director of the Center for the Study of Far Eastern Countries in St. Petersburg, Washington is now pursuing a policy of containment, surrounding China with countries that have a strained relationship with Beijing. Against this backdrop, it remains highly likely that the US will be extending invitations to Japan and South Korea to join AUKUS.
Looking to China’s southwest, if one factors in India, which is part of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - TASS), another US-led security platform, then the expansion of the alliance will eventually lead to China finding itself "surrounded." As Kotkov suggested, Beijing’s likely response will be to strengthen its armed forces.
The establishment of AUKUS is a prime example of the type of dangerously ossified bloc-based thinking that Washington and its closest allies continue to cling to and cannot bring themselves to jettison, according to Gennady Gatilov, Russia's permanent representative in Geneva.
Izvestia: Russian forces holding line as massive losses sap Ukrainians’ strength
Russian forces are continuing to hold the line in the Zaporozhye Region, as they repelled a Ukrainian attack around the settlement of Rabotino on August 17. Air, artillery and massive flamethrower systems supported the defenders. Assault units of the Ukrainian armed forces’ 46th Airmobile Brigade suffered significant losses. According to specialists, the Ukrainian forces have now called up their NATO-trained strategic reserves; fierce fighting is expected in the Zaporozhye direction in the coming days. At the same time, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the conflict is approaching a critical stage where the adversary will have no personnel left with which to mount further attacks given Kiev’s catastrophic losses in its flailing counteroffensive.
According to Izvestia's sources familiar with the situation, the opposing forces are aggressively committing new reserves to the fight. Ukrainian units are now operating in small mobile groups, which are relying on the relatively high speed and safety of the US-provided Stryker armored personnel carriers. At the same time, such Ukrainian mobile groups have been attempting to cut off Russian forward positions, but have had little to no success thus far, the newspaper writes.
"Ukrainian formations are trying to demonstrate at least some signs of success. They are trying to break through to Tokmak, the Sea of Azov, but they can’t pull it off. The enemy is suffering significant losses. Everything suggests that soon they will have nothing left to attack with. But for the time being, we are seeing unrelenting, heavy combat," military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: UN Security Council drops ball on assessing Lachin Corridor situation
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry urged Armenia to interact constructively and stop exploiting the UN Security Council for its own interests, following the conclusion of an emergency meeting in New York the day before on the situation in the blockaded Lachin Corridor. Yerevan emphasized the international community's demand that Baku open the corridor. Meanwhile, the hopes of Yerevan and Baku for a resolution in favor of one of the parties did not materialize, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. The Russian side, in turn, stressed the importance of considering the perspectives of all parties, as well as the adoption of alternative ways of resolving humanitarian problems.
The views of those UN Security Council members who spoke during the meeting were divided. As no consensus was reached during the conference, no decisions or resolutions were adopted. Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Science Club, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that attempts to exert political and diplomatic pressure on Azerbaijan through the adoption of resolutions or documents within the UN framework are unjustified, especially since the negotiation process is still ongoing.
According to him, despite the fact that the majority of the participants supported the position of the Armenian side, the Russian delegate drew attention to Baku's concerns related to Russia's role as one of the main negotiators. The Russian envoy highlighted the alternative Agdam-Khankendi route proposed by the Azerbaijani side. "This is a reasonably balanced position," Velizade stressed.
"There was no final decision, not because there is a difference in approaches to resolving this crisis between the moderators - Russia and the United States - but because there is a de facto open conflict between Russia and the United States," political observer David Petrosyan told the newspaper.
Vedomosti: US approves sale of Israeli Arrow-3 anti-missile systems to Germany
On August 17, the US State Department approved the transfer of Israeli Arrow-3 missile defense (ABM) systems to Germany for more than $3.5 bln. In the near future, Germany will guarantee a $600 mln advance to the contractor to begin work on the order. As a result, the deal will be the largest in the history of Israeli’s defense sector, according to the Israeli Defense Ministry. The non-European missile defense system will cost Berlin less as weapons inventories in European arsenals dwindle, Vedomosti writes.
According to Mikhail Barabanov, an analyst at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Germany's decision makes sense from a military-technical point of view. "All European defense projects take a long time and are expensive, but here we are talking about buying a finished product," he told the newspaper. Germany's decision to forgo working with its usual French partner in such a vital area as missile defense raises concerns about the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) next-generation fighter program, which is already experiencing delays. However, Barabanov believes that it is unlikely to be canceled.
Paris and Berlin are some of the biggest providers of military aid to Kiev, a policy which has resulted in the depletion of weapons stocks in European depots. The need to produce new weapons has intensified competition between the two countries' defense contractors. "A new conventional arms race is brewing in Europe, and no European military company wants to cede market share to competitors. However, the European military-industrial complex is unlikely to be able to meet the demands of the armies of the EU member states: so far, they have not been able to replace the US, which produces a much wider range of weapons," the expert noted.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: White House scoffs at Turkey’s claims of eliminating terrorist leader
The administration of US President Joe Biden has questioned Turkey's statement about eliminating the leader of the Islamic State group (IS, banned in Russia as a terrorist organization) Abu Hussein al-Qurashi. Washington is certain that it was not Ankara that had a hand in his demise, but rather the jihadist organization Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, also banned in Russia as a terrorist organization), which operates in Turkey’s zone of responsibility in Syria. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the White House is trying to downplay the efforts of its NATO ally.
According to the statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in April, the death of al-Qurashi, declared IS leader in November 2022, was the result of a successful operation by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), which had been tracking the IS leader for a long time.
In turn, Western experts see purely political motives behind the fact that US officials have spoken in support of a version of events that make HTS responsible for al-Qurashi’s death. Despite the blatantly terrorist character of its activities, HTS has increased its efforts in recent years to legitimize its "brand" in the regional arena, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. According to analysts, the group's long-term goal is to be removed from various sanctions lists.
Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semyonov called the US statements an attempt not only to downplay Turkey's contribution, but actually to "openly support the HTS terrorists as an important element in countering the IS."
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