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Bank of Russia presents base macroeconomic forecast for 2024

The regulator projects Russia’s GDP growth at 2-3%

MOSCOW, September 2. /TASS/. Russia’s Central Bank has provided its base macroeconomic forecast of the country’s main economic indicators for 2024. The data has been published in the draft of the main areas of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia for 2022-2024.

Particularly, the regulator projects Russia’s GDP growth at 2-3% in 2024, inflation at 4%, as well as the price of Urals crude oil at $50 per barrel. The projections on GDP, inflation and the oil price for 2021-2023 remained intact.

The Central Bank expects GDP growth of 4-4.5% in 2021, 2-3% in 2022 and 2023, annual inflation at 5.7-6.2% in 2021, 4-4.5% in 2022, 4% in 2023. The price of Urals oil is projected at $65 per barrel in 2021, $60 in 2022, and $55 in 2023.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia expects the average key rate at 5-6% per annum in 2024. The regulator last raised the key rate in July by 100 basis points at once - to 6.5% per annum. According to the Central Bank’s projections, the key rate will equal 5.5-5.8% on average in 2021, 6-7% in 2022, and 5-6% per annum in 2023.