MOSCOW, October 23. /TASS/. A direct military clash between the United States and Iran may be inevitable in case of Washington's direct intervention on Israel’s side in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Dmitry Suslov, the deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, has told TASS.
In his opinion, if a full-scale military conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah flares up, it will create risks of a further escalation of hostilities and even a direct military clash between the United States and Iran, because the latter "will not be sitting on its hands."
"The Israelis themselves are saying that in case Hezbollah joins in they could strike directly at Iran, thus drawing Tehran into the conflict," said Suslov, an expert of the Valdai discussion club.
Asked about the consequences of Washington's direct intervention in the conflict on Israel's side, the expert said, "The risk of a direct military clash between the US and Iran will peak, and perhaps their direct military clash with each other will be inevitable."
Scenario: a trap for the US
The expert believes that such a scenario is something the US would like to avoid. "Now the United States, on the one hand, is deterring Israel from even more aggressive actions against Lebanon's Hezbollah, and on the other hand, the US is deterring Hezbollah and Iran by creating a serious American military presence in the region and through aggressive rhetoric," he pointed out.
"For the United States, in any case, such an escalation would be very undesirable, because all US efforts on the Middle Eastern track in recent years will go down the drain. The United States will be forced into the biggest Middle East war of all time. A war with Iran will not be an easy blitzkrieg for Washington," Suslov stressed.
If dragged into a major Middle East war in the context of simultaneous confrontation with Russia and China, the United States will be trapped, Suslov pointed out. This will significantly deplete US resources on other tracks and, of course, will make it very difficult to support Ukraine. "It will also weaken US deterrence capabilities towards China," he added.
Military tool
A researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Asian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Grigory Lukyanov, pointed to the presence of two US aircraft carrier groups in the Mediterranean Sea, which is aimed at opening an air defense umbrella over Israel. It is not only a symbolic gesture addressed to Syria and Iran, but also a real instrument of military involvement in the conflict on Israel's side. The consequences of direct intervention, Lukyanov believes, will be most horrible and destructive.
NATO: partial support
Suslov noted that Washington would like NATO countries to join it. Some partners in the alliance may eventually agree, but most will be reluctant to do so, the expert believes.
"Firstly, because of their own weakness in military terms. Secondly, the US will probably be forcing the Europeans to provide more assistance to Ukraine in a situation where they themselves will be dragged into the Middle East conflict," Suslov explained. "Thirdly, Muslim communities in the European countries will have a very strong impact on the policies of European states, restraining them from entering the conflict."
Suslov believes that not all political leaders in Europe are one hundred percent on Israel's side. "Even the chief of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, and the average of EU member-states do not support Israel one hundred percent. They say that Israel is violating international law, too," he added.
Lukyanov noted that NATO countries might send groups of ships to the region to show the flag "but both Israel and the US hardly wish to see their full-scale participation or a major operation."
Facilitating a settlement
Lukyanov also drew attention to the fact that the Russia sought to promote an exclusively political settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in accordance with the principle "two states for two peoples."
"In this particular case, this goal is not achievable in the foreseeable future due to US policies, alongside other reasons. Russia wishes the Middle East peace in the interests of mutually beneficial economic, humanitarian and political cooperation," the expert concluded.