MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. The West has limited potential to provide heavy military vehicles to Ukraine and it would take much time and effort to expand it, analysts told TASS on Thursday.
Dmitry Suslov, a deputy director of the Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said the West hasn’t really produced any tanks in recent decades, so it would dent its own security if Ukraine gets as many of the vehicles as it’s seeking. The potential for tank supplies to Kiev is no more than 150 units, he said.
The analyst said the West doesn’t plan to sustain supplies of the heavy armored vehicles to Ukraine for many months, but wants to provide just enough to enable a major offensive soon.
"It’s about creating an opportunity for a breakthrough here and now, so Ukraine can fortify its position for any upcoming talks," Suslov said.
He said the tactic is unlikely to succeed because Russia is also ramping up its military capabilities.
Suslov said the West is especially struggling to give Ukraine enough artillery rounds, and supplies will decline this year from a year before.
Time and money
Andrey Kortunov, director general at the Russian International Affairs Council think tank, told TASS that Poland’s pledge to transfer German-made Leopard tanks and plans by the UK to furnish its own armored vehicles could be a sign that Europe has run out of Soviet-made armaments. The US appears to be unwilling to supply its tanks, so Europe would need to start manufacturing its own combat vehicles to meet Kiev’s needs, he said.
"All that requires time and money," Kortunov said.
Also, Ukrainians would need to be trained in using Western-made tanks, taking more time and funds.
Russian, Western goals
Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Higher School of Economics, said the US and its allies could ultimately overcome the challenges in arms supplies to Kiev, but they also have to keep track of other issues across the globe.
"Both sides - Russia and the West - have limited potential, but there’s one thing that sets them apart. Russia has no other military missions except the war in Ukraine, so it simply steadily sends all it has toward the conflict in Ukraine. The West, especially the US, has other objectives that are related, for example, to containing China. There’s also North Korea and Iran and the US continues to be at war with various radical Islamic groups. They supply their allies around the world," he said.
The West will also strain to keep up Ukraine’s air defenses, he said. Ukraine’s inventory of air defense missiles isn’t infinite and it will have to increasingly rely on Western systems, such as NASAMS and IRIS-T. The missiles to these systems are very expensive and they aren’t stockpiled in great quantities, so their production is something that will need to be addressed, Kashin said.