MOSCOW, January 26. /TASS/. It is not so much statements and actions by Western countries as the temptation to ruin the Minsk agreements that may push Ukraine towards a military confrontation with Russia, the general director of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrey Kortunov, told TASS on Wednesday.
"Should military operations begin, they will begin not because of the West, but because Ukraine might yield to the temptation to ruin the Minsk agreements and start an escalation in the east," Kortunov said.
He pointed out that if the Ukrainian authorities dared try to handle the problem of Donbass with military force, then Moscow would have to intervene. He suspects that Kiev’s Western partners may try to provoke it into taking corresponding steps.
"But we do remember well enough Georgia’s former President Mikhail Saakashvili, who in the hope of getting Western support, tried to do away with the problem of South Ossetia by military means. This resulted in a direct conflict between Russia and Georgia. The consequences were very different from those Saakashvili had expected," Kortunov said. "In this case, it is important for the West to reaffirm its commitment to the Minsk agreements and to send a clear message to Kiev it will not support a military operation in the east of the country."
Normandy platform
Kortunov drew attention to Wednesday’s face-to-face meeting in Paris of the political advisers representing all countries of the Normandy Quartet (Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine) in the context of the outlook for stabilization in southeastern Ukraine and prevention of a military escalation scenario.
"I believe that the very instance of such a meeting is highly welcome, because it indicates that after all the signatories to the Minsk agreements still pin some hopes on them, and that the proposed solution is not hopeless," he said. "But, of course, it remains to be seen what results this meeting will produce. We are waiting for some concrete shifts, and not just another portion of declarations that very often sink into the quick sand."
Kortunov believes that it is very unreasonable for Kiev to fuel tensions too much.
"All this affects the climate in society and in the economy, the credit ratings and so on and so forth. Any country that is on the brink of a war has very little chances to see anybody eager to conclude any agreement with it in earnest. It would be far better from the standpoint of the current authorities in Kiev to tone all this down," Kortunov added.
Military supplies factor
Kortunov paid due attention to the growing military supplies to Ukraine. On Tuesday alone, according to some US mass media, Kiev received from Washington a cargo of military aid, including 300 anti-tank systems Javelin and ammunition for them.
"Javelin is not a very dreadful weapon. It’s an antitank system," Kortunov said. "But if there are supplies of some advanced drones and cruise missiles capable of reaching Moscow, it will be a very serious destabilizing factor."
He called for closely monitoring not just the very instance of military-technical cooperation, but also what this cooperation implies.
"Then it will be possible to conclude to what extent this is a destabilizing factor or not, and if it influences the whole situation," Kortunov said. "Of course, it is to be hoped that negotiations between Russia and the Western partners produce some agreements on reasonable restraint. In other words, not on the termination [of their cooperation] altogether, which, generally speaking, is unrealistic, but on excluding from that cooperation any annoyances that are obviously provocative and challenging in Moscow’s opinion."
Lately, the Western countries and Kiev have been speculating a great deal about the risks of Russia invading Ukraine. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed such allegations as groundless fanning of tensions. He stressed that Russia posed no threat to anyone. Also, he did not rule out the risk of provocations and warned that attempts at handling the crisis in southeastern Ukraine from the position of strength would entail dire effects.