MOSCOW, January 30. /TASS/. The United States is considering a number of options for delivering retaliatory strikes against Iran; the West is hoping to build up a high-capacity defense industry in Ukraine; and Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko meet in St. Petersburg to sign a set of key documents outlining the future development of the Russia-Belarus Union State. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: US considering several options for launching retaliatory strikes on Iran
The US is considering striking Iran in response to an attack on its base in northern Jordan that killed three American soldiers, Bloomberg reported. One option is a covert operation for which the US would retain "plausible deniability" by not accepting direct credit but would still send a "clear message" to Iran. According to an unnamed White House source, the administration of President Joe Biden may also choose to assassinate Iranian officials. The Republicans are beating the drum very loudly for retribution, demanding that the Biden administration take action to hold Iran accountable, Vedomosti writes.
Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies, told Vedomosti she believes the Republicans' belligerent stance is attributable not only to their partisan desire to make Biden look weak, indecisive or incapable, but also by their own Middle East agenda. "For many years, as the situation has become more and more tense, they have consistently called for a military solution to the conflict," the analyst said. The desire to strike Iran highlights the contentious issue of how far the US president's unilateral powers to use military force extend, with several members of Congress insisting that Biden should first have obtained congressional authorization before launching the US’ punitive campaign of airstrikes against the Yemen-based Houthis in early January.
Sergey Sudakov, a scholar with the Academy of Military Sciences, believes that White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will advocate for limiting any strikes to only those targets purportedly associated with Iran in order to avoid a further dramatic escalation of armed conflict in the region. He also surmised that Sullivan's likely stance will be endorsed by the Pentagon. A strike on Iran is an extreme option; if the US decides to use it, it would only serve to diminish its influence in the Middle East. The expert noted, however, that the pressure to appear decisive during the presidential election season and the desire to avoid further dents in the US’ reputation as the global hegemon may ultimately drive Biden to opt for engaging in a direct conflict with Iran.
According to Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Oriental Studies, the United States will exercise caution since the risk of a Middle East-wide explosion is too high. The expert believes that the Biden administration may limit itself to either airstrikes on certain Iranian targets or a covert operation. Sazhin is confident that Washington will not embark on a ground operation. For its part, Iran is not prepared to launch a full-fledged military operation either, although the danger of escalation cannot be entirely eliminated, the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: West hopes to build up high-capacity defense industry in Ukraine
The Russian Armed Forces continue not only to maintain the initiative in the zone of the special military operation, but also to launch substantial attacks on vital targets in the rear of the Ukrainian armed forces, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces have not yet experienced a major shortage of ammunition and weapons, despite loud claims in the Western media. And despite the Pentagon's official statements about the suspension of aid to Ukraine, assistance is still being delivered, as evidenced by the arrival of US military transport aircraft in Rzeszow, Poland, which has served as the West’s forward hub for staging deliveries of military equipment to Ukrainian forces.
According to the Washington Post, after the failure of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive, the administration of US President Joe Biden has been developing a new strategy for Ukraine that will shift the focus from retaking territory to helping Kiev fend off new Russian attacks. Meanwhile, with Western help, Kiev is still trying to develop its own weapons production. According to media sources, Ukraine and Lithuania have decided to cooperate in the production of drones.
"It is no secret that the UK has helped set up the production of unmanned maritime drones in Ukraine. Kiev and London intend to continue this process," military analyst Colonel (Ret.) Nikolay Shulgin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on January 27 that the North Atlantic Alliance and the EU should help Ukraine with additional funding. The European Union plans to provide Ukraine with about 50 bln euros, while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already announced that military supplies for Ukraine will be forthcoming in 2024.
"Berlin has not announced the production of armored vehicles with the participation of Germany on the territory of Ukraine. But it is known that in October 2023 the German concern Rheinmetall signed its first contract with Ukraine for the repair, supply and production of German tanks and armored vehicles in the country," Shulgin added. "The West is ready to actively support Kiev militarily in the future. And the Russian Armed Forces are tasked with preventing this by destroying enterprises that produce weapons and ammunition in Ukraine," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Moscow, Minsk roll out plans for further developing Russia-Belarus Union State
Russia and Belarus are seeking to boost the influence of the Union State in the international arena, following the example of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). On January 29, the Supreme State Council of the Union State met in St. Petersburg with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. At the event, a new foreign policy action plan was approved, as well as the key program document outlining the Union State's development progress over the next three years, Izvestia writes.
Artem Turov, deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Committee on CIS Affairs and a member of the Union State Parliamentary Assembly, told Izvestia that the Union State's previous development program has been almost fully implemented. The Union State has proven itself in the face of Western sanctions against Moscow and Minsk, with the countries achieving positive results in import substitution, Lukashenko stressed.
The partner countries are now increasing their exports of non-commodity goods with high added value both within the EAEU and to countries in East, Southeast and South Asia, according to Natalya Nikonorova, a member of the Russian Federation Council (upper house) Committee on Foreign Affairs and of the Union State Parliamentary Assembly.
Moreover, the volume of mutual trade in goods and services between Belarus and Russia is growing. According to preliminary data, by the end of 2023 it will reach an all-time high of $54 bln, the Belarusian leader confirmed.
However, the goals of the Union State are far from being achieved. For example, Lukashenko said that Russia and Belarus have yet to decide on the creation of unified oil and gas markets. Both presidents consider it essential to remove barriers to the supply of raw materials.
These principles were perfectly reflected in the program document of the Union State for 2024-2026, which the presidents signed in St. Petersburg. According to Lukashenko, activities during the new three-year cycle include strengthening the common economic space and removing remaining trade barriers. The document also addresses interaction in the fields of manufacturing, agriculture, energy, transport and logistics, as well as information technology. In addition, Putin stated that it would help strengthen Russian-Belarusian cooperation in international affairs.
As a result, the Supreme State Council of the Union State approved all 15 documents on the future development of the association. In addition, a new strategy for the scientific and technological growth of the Union State up until 2035 was to be approved.
Vedomosti: EU threatens to undermine Hungarian economy as punishment for blocking Kiev aid
The European Union may deny financial assistance for member state Hungary in an effort to impair the Hungarian economy as punishment if the Central European country continues to block aid to Ukraine at the upcoming EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on February 1, the Financial Times (FT) reports. Meanwhile, Hungarian EU Affairs Minister Janos Boka noted that Budapest will not submit to EU pressure over the delivery of aid to Ukraine. Without promised EU funds, however, multinational corporations may become less interested in investing in Hungary's economy, which could ultimately impair the country's investment attractiveness, Vedomosti writes.
EU penalties against a member state are not a new phenomenon, according to Artem Sokolov, researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) Institute of International Studies. In 1999, Brussels imposed limits on Austria, complicating the work of Austrian representatives in European institutions, in reaction to legislative elections in which the far-right Austrian Freedom Party finished in second place. Vienna emerged victorious at the time, and the limitations were rescinded a year later, Sokolov noted.
Hungary seeks de-escalation in Ukraine and normalization of relations with Russia, which Brussels opposes, according to the expert. "Even without specific legal forms, the EU still has other tools to extract concessions from the Hungarians," he added.
However, Budapest has shown over the past year that it can deal with rising inflation and public debt without significant assistance from European funds, thanks to available Russian energy resources and Chinese investments, Kirill Teremetsky, an expert at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University) Central Committee for International Relations, noted. According to him, the government of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban pursues a multi-orientation agenda that has succeeded in bringing in major investments from South Korea and Japan.
Izvestia: Border, immigration crisis in Texas may provoke entire wave of conflicts
The situation in the US state of Texas, which has been in a standoff with the US federal government under President Joe Biden over border controls to stem the flow of illegal immigrants, could potentially set off a chain reaction of similar tensions between state and federal authorities, Izvestia writes. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has continued to crack down on illegal immigration, limiting the actions of the US Border Patrol and even ignoring a US Supreme Court ruling not to block federal authorities’ access to the border. At the same time, the governors of half of all states in the United States are backing Texas officials in the state capital of Austin in their confrontation with the federal authorities in Washington.
The United States is at a crossroads, and any way forward could lead to civil disobedience on such a scale that, in the worst case, it could even escalate into civil war, Herbert Reginbogin, professor and senior fellow at the Catholic University of America Institute for Policy Research, told Izvestia. According to the Washington-based expert, the chances of actual civil war breaking out are quite minimal, but they cannot be ignored, since too much attention is focused on the Middle East and not on the country's own internal problems.
The situation resulted from the ongoing conflict between Texas state authorities and the federal government. Against the backdrop of an unprecedented flow of illegal immigrants into the US, state officials have stepped up security measures. In 2023, they installed barbed wire on a section of the border, floated barriers in the Rio Grande River, which forms the US border with Mexico, and mobilized large resources, including the state’s National Guard, which is under the command of the governor but may be federalized should the president issue such an order. Meanwhile, Abbott has received the public support of 25 Republican governors, who issued a joint statement praising their Texas counterpart's actions to exercise a state’s constitutional right to self-defense, as Abbott has equated the unfettered flow of migrants to an "invasion."
Professor Saeed Khan at Wayne State University in Detroit told the newspaper that there is always the possibility that Abbott's actions will embolden other states, particularly those with Republican governors. The border states of Arizona and New Mexico may also follow Abbott's lead, but would likely take a different tack as both have Democratic governors, he added.
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