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Share of Russian coal on global market to rise to 25-30% by 2050 — strategy

According to the targeted scenario, Russia’s coal export may rise to 350 mln tons by 2050 from 212.5 mln tons in 2023

MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. Russia’s energy strategy through 2050 sets the goal of boosting the share of the country’s export in international trade of coal from 14.5% in 2023 to 15-23% in 2026 and 25-30% in 2050, according to a revised energy strategy obtained by TASS, which has been submitted to the government.

According to the targeted scenario, Russia’s coal export may rise to 350 mln tons by 2050 from 212.5 mln tons in 2023 (+64.7%). In the inertial scenario, coal export may total 310 mln tons (+45.9%), while the stress scenario suggests that export of coal from Russia may drop to 100.5 mln tons by 2050 (-52.7% compared with 2023). According to the document, Russia’ coal export may rise to 269 mln tons by 2036 (+26.6% compared with 2023) in the targeted scenario, and to 255 mln tons (+20%) in the inertial scenario. That said, in the stress scenario the Russian Energy Ministry projects that coal export may reach 155 mln tons by 2036 (-27% compared with 2023).

Coal production may climb to 600.5 mln tons by 2050 (+37 compared with 2023) in the targeted scenario and to 486.4 mln tons from 438.7 mln tons in 2023 (+10.87%) in the inertial scenario, according to the forecast. In the stress scenario Russia’s coal output may lose 34.7% to 286.6 mln tons by 2050.

Coal production may total 523.9 mln tons by 2036 (+19.4%) in the targeted scenario and 470.1 mln tons (+7.2%) in the inertial scenario. Meanwhile in the stress scenario Russia’s coal production may drop to 389.9 mln tons by 2036 (-11.1% compared with 2023).

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