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IMF forecasts global trade growth of 3.5% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027

Despite the upward revision of the trade growth forecast, the report’s authors noted that global trade has slowed sharply compared to 2025

WASHINGTON, July 8. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global trade growth forecast for this year by 0.7 percentage points (p.p.), according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.

Global trade growth rates are expected at 3.5% this year, and 4.3% next year, according to the document. Despite the upward revision of the trade growth forecast, the report’s authors noted that global trade has slowed sharply compared to 2025 when its growth rate stood at 5%.

"These dynamics reflect earlier front-loading and the drag from tariffs as well as the gradual adjustment of trade linkages and production chains through, among other things, trade diversion and rerouting and the brisk growth of technology-related trade flows," the report said.

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