BRUSSELS, May 21. /TASS/. The European Commission raised its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2026 from 1.1% to 1.3%, according to the EC’s spring economic forecast.
"Russia’s GDP growth is expected at 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027," the document said.
At the same time, the forecast for 2027 was lowered from 1.2% to 1.1%.
According to the report, after a marked slowdown in 2025, real GDP growth is projected to accelerate slightly in 2026 and slow somewhat again in 2027. At the same time, despite some deterioration in inflation expectations, the EC pointed to a trend toward slowing inflation in Russia.
According to the European Commission’s expectations, Russia’s budget deficit will amount to 2.2% of GDP in 2026 and 2.8% of GDP in 2027. A sharp rise in global hydrocarbon prices is creating conditions for achieving the planned revenue level.
As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported earlier, the government expects economic growth of 0.4% this year, after which the economy is projected to enter a recovery period, with growth accelerating from 1.4% in 2027 to 2.4% in 2029.
In its autumn forecast published in September 2025, the Russian Economic Development Ministry estimated Russia’s GDP growth at 1.3% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028. In April, the Bank of Russia maintained its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2026 at 0.5-1.5% and for 2027 at 1.5-2.5%.