MOSCOW, July 13. /TASS/. The Hormuz Strait crisis briefly overshadows Iran’s nuclear issue; EU countries remain divided over launching talks with Russia; and Russia, Turkey, and Gulf nations discuss the future of S-400 systems. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Hormuz Strait crisis briefly overshadows Iran nuclear issue
The United States and Iran continue to exchange strikes. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that ceasefire violations will continue to take place regularly. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains the main stumbling block, but despite rising tensions, Oman, Qatar, Pakistan, and Egypt continue their efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiating table.
Ceasefire disruptions risk becoming a recurring feature, political scientist Yelena Suponina said. She expects that even after talks resume, the parties will continue to violate agreements on a repeated basis, as key differences still remain unresolved.
The Strait of Hormuz is currently the main point of contention, while the issue of Iran’s nuclear program has temporarily faded into the background, Farkhad Ibragimov, lecturer at the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia and the Financial University under the Russian Government, pointed out. However, an entire set of problems still requires attention, including the future of Iran’s frozen assets, the lifting of sanctions on the country, and an end to Tehran’s support for its loyal military and political forces in the region.
Although tensions are rising, there is no reason to expect an all-out war to erupt in the region in the near future, Ibragimov noted. In his view, the US will now take a tactical pause to evaluate Iran’s military capabilities and assess its potential response while regrouping its own forces stationed in the region.
However, the situation cannot continue indefinitely. If Tehran strongly rejects Washington's conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and a number of other issues, the exchange of strikes risks becoming prolonged, potentially leading to a full-scale war as early as this fall.
From now on, Tehran will not comply with the ceasefire the US is violating, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. Given the current developments, the risk of new clashes and further escalation in the Middle East has grown considerably, he emphasized.
Media: EU countries remain split over launching talks with Russia
The European Union is not prepared to launch talks with Russia, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. EU countries have been unable to reach decisions on either what form future dialogue would take or who would represent the EU. Meanwhile, NATO’s recent summit in Ankara confirmed that the West continues to focus on supporting Kiev.
The Europeans’ eagerness to supply weapons to Ukraine is easy to explain. NATO members are taking advantage of the conflict to strengthen their own defense industries, European studies expert Mikhail Kucherov noted. They seek to support their economies through militarization efforts, as weapons production involves contractors from various countries.
The situation within the European Union regarding dialogue with Moscow remains unclear, St. Petersburg University Professor Natalya Yeryomina observed. She pointed out that the bloc is divided among different groups of influence, including hardliners, advocates of compromise, and those opposed to further militarization due to its high costs and uncertain results.
Formally, the EU is not taking the issue of talks off the agenda, the expert went on to say. However, Brussels’ focus is not on dialogue itself, but on the conditions under which it could begin and what European countries could ultimately receive.
The European Union has invested heavily in the Ukraine crisis and is unwilling to abandon its current policy as long as hawks have not exhausted their agenda.
Political scientist Yevgeny Mikhailov believes there is almost no chance of full-fledged dialogue between Russia and Europe at this point, as the West is stubbornly seeking to talk with Moscow from a position of strength. Russia is not refusing dialogue, but rejects ultimatums. However, agreements are unlikely to be reached with the current EU leadership. The situation could change only after Europe’s political elites are replaced by new forces or major shifts occur on the battlefield, the expert concluded.
Meanwhile, Kiev is seeking to increase the combat capabilities of its army by forming new strike and mobile formations. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta point out that these developments mark further steps toward an escalation of the conflict, which US President Donald Trump mentioned at the NATO summit in Ankara.
Vedomosti: Russia, Turkey, Gulf nations discuss future of S-400 systems
Moscow should be involved in talks on the potential resale of Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air defense missile systems to a third country, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the media. According to him, obtaining US-made fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, whose delivery Washington suspended after Ankara purchased the S-400 systems in 2019, "will not be a problem" for Turkey, Vedomosti writes.
Under the contract, the two S-400 divisions Russia supplied to Turkey can be transferred to a third country only with Moscow’s approval. Last week, Turkey’s pro-government newspaper Hurriyet reported that Ankara planned to transfer the S-400 systems to a Persian Gulf country.
Prokhor Tebin, director of the Military and Economic Research Center at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the likelihood of Ankara receiving Moscow’s approval is high, given extensive cooperation between the two countries. According to the expert, the deployment of Russian-made systems in a Gulf nation’s armed forces would not pose major military or defense risks to Russia compared with their use by Turkey, a NATO member.
Qatar is the leading potential buyer of Turkey’s S-400 systems. The country, Ankara’s key partner among Arab states, hosts a Turkish military base, as well as a major US air base and a headquarters of the US Central Command. The potential scenario involves deploying the S-400s to Turkey’s base in Qatar, where they would formally remain under Ankara’s control based on an agreement with the emirate, said Alexander Nadzharov, an analyst at the Higher School of Economics’ Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs. The move would help Turkey remove obstacles to its participation in the F-35 program, he added.
However, Greece, also a NATO member, opposes Turkey’s return to the F-35 project, as does Israel. Israel is capable of disrupting F-35 supplies to Turkey, which is why the S-400 transfer deal is unlikely to be implemented until Ankara receives clear guarantees on the delivery of fighter jets, said a source close to Russia’s defense cooperation system.
Izvestia: Six non-nuclear countries seek to join NATO’s nuclear missions
Norway has begun supporting NATO’s nuclear missions by using conventional aircraft, Russian Ambassador to Oslo Nikolay Korchunov told Izvestia. Lithuania has decided to lift its ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons following a similar move by Finland. Poland, Latvia and Estonia have no such restrictions and are already prepared to host nuclear weapons carriers.
"Russia is strongly opposed to such cooperation between NATO countries, as it views these efforts as joint nuclear missions that undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, security in the Euro-Arctic region, and global stability in general," Korchunov pointed out.
The deployment of nuclear weapons to Norway cannot be ruled out, even though this is unlikely to be what the country is seeking, Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes. According to him, Oslo has significant experience of living "on the frontline" of the Cold War and is aware of the consequences of its decisions. Still, Norway’s plans should not be ignored. Oslo plays an important role in alliance planning as it borders the Kola Peninsula, where Russia’s strategic nuclear forces are concentrated.
It is the countries on NATO’s eastern flank that have the strongest interest in hosting nuclear capabilities. In Stefanovich’s view, Poland is most likely to become the first to deploy nuclear weapons.
Russia will take countermeasures against countries that deploy nuclear weapons near its borders. Moscow is already working to reinforce strategic security in the northwest, in particular by establishing the Leningrad Military District, Stefanovich emphasized.
Kommersant: Analysts expect Russian coal prices to increase after current decline
Declining energy consumption and high coal stocks in China have led to a drop in Russian coal prices. A similar trend could emerge in South Korea’s market, particularly amid increasing supplies. However, a new escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran could provide support for the market, experts interviewed by Kommersant said.
Alexander Kotov, a consulting partner at NEFT Research, predicts that if cool and rainy summer weather conditions persist in Asia, prices will begin to recover no earlier than September or October, when pre-winter stockpiling begins. According to the analyst, another round of tensions in the Middle East could accelerate the shift, with risks of disruptions in oil and liquefied natural gas supplies once again shifting demand toward coal.
Yevgeny Grachev, director of the Center of Price Indexes, points out that coal demand remains restricted for now. In his view, there are currently no consumption factors to drive a rise in prices, which means that the supply situation is more likely to influence price trends. The expert notes that the current economic conditions are more favorable for high-calorific coal supplies to South Korea. The country remains a premium market compared with China, where discounts on Russian coal stand at 10%, Kotov added.
Maxim Shaposhnikov, advisor to the Industrial Code fund manager, expects that renewed conflict between the US and Iran will push gas, oil and oil product prices higher, which is why a prolonged decline in coal rates looks unlikely to continue. The expert estimates that the price of medium-calorific coal in China should not fall below $100 per metric ton, while rising energy costs are expected to change the trend in the near future.
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