MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. NATO is hindering efforts to reopen dialogue with Russia and discuss Moscow’s legitimate concerns, as Russian President Vladimir Putin discusses nuclear escalation with the West and UN reform at the plenary session of the Valdai forum, among other topics. Meanwhile, his envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Russian Economic Development Minister travel to the United States for talks with senior US officials. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: NATO seen escalating tensions with Russia
NATO is blocking efforts to restore direct dialogue with Russia and discuss its legitimate concerns, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. Moscow has warned the alliance that it will use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, in the event of an attempted blockade of the Kaliningrad Region. Russia has called on NATO to end its expansion. However, the bloc's leadership is calling for increased support to Kiev as it shies away from a dialogue on security guarantees. Meanwhile, the EU too is increasingly resembling a military structure.
"Any sensible initiatives regarding the need to restore direct dialogue with Russia and discuss our legitimate concerns at the EU and NATO are being blocked. As long as the erroneous opinion prevails in these structures that taking Russia’s interests into account in any form would be a defeat for the West rather than a condition for ensuring genuine stability and security in Europe, we will not get off the ground," Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of European Affairs, told Izvestia.
According to Natalya Yeremina, a professor at St. Petersburg State University, NATO is escalating the situation around Kaliningrad to test Russia's military capabilities. The bloc is using non-military means to divert Moscow's attention and gain control of Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea. However, she warned, such actions increase the risk of random incidents, which could lead to more serious consequences later on.
Russia and NATO maintaining only emergency communication channels aggravates the situation. However, the alliance did not use those in the wake of incidents with falling UAVs in Romania and Poland as it immediately blamed Moscow instead. Therefore, restoring a limited technical dialogue between defense agencies could be the first realistic step, Yekaterina Antyukhova, professor with the Department of Global Political Processes at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told Izvestia. Reviving the political dialogue would be more difficult, as the conditions for this are not yet ripe, she explained.
According to her, NATO is unlikely to abandon its expansionist policy any time soon. For the alliance, this line remains an instrument of bolstering its positions. However, the bloc will hardly expand in the near future, the expert argued. Instead, it may further spread its military and political influence, develop cooperation with partner states, expand joint exercises, and strengthen military cooperation. The Armenian army, for one, has recently started to embrace the alliance’s standards.
The risks of a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO are growing, with the alliance being increasingly drawn into the Ukraine conflict and currently "testing" Moscow in the Baltic Sea. To stabilize the situation, it would be necessary to restore at least a technical dialogue, but Brussels is not currently planning to take Russia’s demands into account.
Vedomosti: Putin talks Kaliningrad, nuclear escalation with West, in Ukraine and at UN
Moscow is not "threatening anyone," while Russia’s recent warnings about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in case of any blockade of Kaliningrad by NATO’s European allies is "a response, not a threat," Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the last day of the forum hosted by the Valdai International Discussion Club on October 1.
Putin was commenting on the exchange of remarks in absentia started by the Russian embassies across Europe and Russia’s Foreign Ministry and continued by NATO countries, its Secretary General Mark Rutte and later concluded by the Kremlin. The exchange came as NATO countries stepped up exercises around Kaliningrad, politicians in Lithuania and Latvia discussed hosting third-country nuclear weapons and Britain, a nuclear power, made a corresponding proposal.
Commenting on global international cooperation, Putin lamented that the UN as its key symbol now operates "far less collegially and democratically." This, he argued, explains justified claims to it, with Russia supporting reform of the global organization, even if the move would require internal consensus. The UN structure should reflect the global diversity, with Asia, Africa and Latin America playing a much more significant role there, while the institutions established in 1945 no longer reflect the global situation, the president added.
Russia’s position regarding UN reform has been quite consistent: it should adapt to today’s realities, and rule out any diktat or moves to impose certain players, while staying true to the key ideas underpinning the global body since 1945, senior research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University Vladimir Pavlov told Vedomosti. According to him, this path or the processes of embracing a new world order will neither be simple nor quick. "The West is trying to retain its global posture or even remain relevant in an already transformed world. Navigating these new realities will not come without crises or be a quick process, so it will be necessary to make compromises and firmly defend the position as a sovereign at times," Pavlov said.
The situation around Kaliningrad, as well as recent statements from Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and the latest comments from Putin have been a preventive exchange of deterrence signals, Yulia Semke, leading expert with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explained. Russia is responding to the whole range of abundant military signals and scenarios, as Moscow views them as potentially leading to escalation and cautions against the maximum costs of such an escalation.
"In turn, NATO officials say such Russian signals do not require any change in their strategy. The problem is there is a huge gap between military planning and drills and actual preparations for a blockade, but given the extent of the current mistrust one of the two sides may take the other’s actions for preparations for the worst-case scenario," Semke emphasized.
Vedomosti: Putin’s envoy, Russian economy minister travel to US
One after another, Russian special presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov visited the United States. Their trips came as senior Russian officials took part in G20 meetings against the backdrop of the diesel crisis in the United States and Donald Trump’s ambition to mitigate it.
Meanwhile, there have been no direct contacts on potential sanctions relief, economic cooperation or other meaningful discussions with the US, Reshetnikov told reporters on the sidelines of the two-day G20 Trade Ministers Meeting in Milwaukee on October 1.
Prior to Reshetnikov’s visit, Putin’s special envoy Dmitriev, who also heads the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), traveled to the US on September 24-29. He visited New York and Washington.
The New York Post and Reuters reported, citing White House officials, that Dmitriev held high-level talks with US officials to continue "constructive discussions", focusing on a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and "prospective post-war energy initiatives" between the US and Russia. Reuters specified, citing sources, that Dmitriev had met US Treasury and Department of Commerce officials.
Meanwhile, Trump himself is advocating an energy ceasefire. Moscow halted fuel exports which, in combination with the crisis around Iran, pushed US diesel prices to a record $6.5 per gallon, while diesel and gasoline prices in Europe rose to four-year highs.
The US has continued to use the carrot and stick policy in its contacts with Russia, given the impact its economic agencies may have on politics, Vladimir Vasilyev, chief researcher at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. But the bulk of benefits and rapprochement between Russia and the US will come after de-escalation expected by Trump by December, when the US will host the G20 summit, with Putin invited to attend, the expert maintained.
Dmitriev’s US visits are extremely important and his mandate is quite extensive, Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, said. As Trump’s special envoys, not the Department of State, act as US top negotiators, Russia is trying to maintain an equal dialogue, he explained. Suslov described Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov as Moscow’s second-largest counterparty, as he said Dmitriev is nearly "equivalent to [US special envoy Steve] Witkoff."
The US approach to Russia involves proposing economic deals in exchange for political concessions, and Dmitriev’s role as an emissary fits with his position at the RDIF, Nikolay Silayev, Leading Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, argued. The expert noted that Moscow understands that some political positions have no economic price tag attached to them.
Kommersant: Global fuel crisis explained
The large-scale global crisis triggered by chronic fuel, mostly diesel, shortages is getting worse. A sharp supply reduction by major exporters, including Russia, and fierce competition over remaining volumes have pushed petroleum prices to record highs, with no signs of stabilization in sight. Against this backdrop, the US is considering a ban on diesel exports, while EU countries are calling for relaxed rules governing fuel quality.
Diesel costs in the US and the EU have risen to new record highs. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the third week of September, average US prices exceeded $6.50 per gallon, an increase of $2.6 year-on-year. In the EU, diesel prices rose to €2.23 per liter, according to data from the European Commission. Prices are climbing amid lower oil and petroleum supplies from the Middle East, as well as ongoing restrictions on diesel exports from Russia, which previously was the world's second-largest supplier with a 9.5% market share.
Dmitry Danilin, a portfolio manager at Alfa-Capital brokerage, told Kommersant that the crisis has mostly affected poorer countries that import fuel and lack the means to subsidize consumer prices. For developed economies, he argued, high fuel prices play the role of an additional consumer tax which curbs demand and increases inflation pressures in the economy due to rising shipment costs.
Olga Osharova, CEO of S+Consulting, noted that rising fuel prices have primarily hit Finland, Denmark, Greece and Germany where fuel costs are rising at an accelerated pace, while supply disruptions at gas stations have been reported in France and other countries.
Amid record fuel prices, US President Donald Trump supported a diesel export ban on September 22. Later, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent specified that both a full and a partial ban are being considered. In theory, the measure would make a significant amount of fuel available for the domestic market: an estimate from S&P Global showed that a full ban would free up 1.48 million barrels per day. At that, according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie quoted by Nikita Gorbun, Director of the Energy and Oil and Gas Practice at Yakov and Partners, a 90-day ban would help replenish available stocks in more than a month.
According to Dmitry Kastatkin, a managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, if Russia eases its diesel export restrictions, the first additional shipments could take place within a couple of weeks, provided the product, vessels, and buyers are ready. Russian diesel could likely go to Turkey, Brazil, and North and West Africa--regions with established trade ties and infrastructure already available, Kasatkin added. The impact on the European market would be indirect, as Russian diesel will replace US or Indian volumes in other markets, thereby freeing up those supplies for Europe, he concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Houthis prepare to storm Saudi borders
Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement is moving troops to the Saudi borders, Qatari media outlets reported on Thursday. Major preparations are underway in Saada Governorate in northern Yemen, a key Houthi stronghold. Yemen’s central government views these maneuvers as preparations for a large-scale ground offensive. Officials believe that ground clashes between Iranian-backed militants and regular Saudi troops are only a matter of time.
Since Saudi Arabia and its allies launched their large-scale intervention in the Yemeni war in 2015, the Houthis have repeatedly conducted cross-border incursions into the kingdom, which has actively supported the internationally recognized government in the republic. Now, Saudi Arabia is not only looking for assistance in establishing effective protection against combined missile and drone attacks by Ansar Allah among various international players but also weighing a scenario of renewing a large-scale military campaign against the militants, which formally stopped in September 2022 thanks to a UN-led ceasefire. Earlier this month, the Houthis recaptured the western part of the Yemeni coast and occupied a number of islands in the Red Sea as they gained the ability to deliver more precise strikes on maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic waterway that Riyadh relied on for oil transit.
Anton Mardasov, an expert in the Middle East, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the increased concentration of Houthi forces in Saada, near the border with Saudi Arabia’s Najran Province, will inevitably be interpreted by the Saudi ruling family as evidence of a launching point for an offensive being established there. "Saada, the movement's historic stronghold, is becoming both a potential axis for a ground assault and a means to draw Saudi forces and warplanes away from other fronts in Yemen," he told the newspaper. "The more so that Aramco’s oil infrastructure is located in Najran. At the same time, this Houthi military buildup could serve as an instrument of not only escalating tensions but also for exerting pressure ahead of negotiations," he argued.
Mardasov does not rule out the possibility of the Houthis factoring in the ethno-confessional dimension too as they raise the stakes in their standoff with Saudi Arabia. "For instance, the escalation of tensions in Saada will inevitably affect the Ismaili community in Najran, which enjoys a certain degree of autonomy," he explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta. The expert noted that Saudi authorities are attempting to contain this threat by offering social guarantees to this religious community, whose members serve in the kingdom's regular army. However, this may prove insufficient, given that Ismailis are barred from holding high-ranking positions in the country. "Consequently, a certain level of discontent has persisted there," Mardasov concluded.
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