MOSCOW, October 1. /TASS/. An attempted attack on a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight heightens the risk of renewed escalation in the Middle East; the US ends its military mission in Iraq amid its ongoing standoff with Iran; and US lawmakers oppose easing sanctions on Russia in exchange for prisoner releases. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Flydubai incident raises Middle East escalation risks ahead of Israeli election
The attempted terrorist attack on a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight is increasing tensions in the region, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On the morning of September 30, the aircraft’s pilot attacked his colleague and abruptly sent the plane into a dive. A disaster was averted thanks to the intervention of passengers and other crew members, and the aircraft landed in Saudi Arabia. Israeli authorities believe the terrorist attack was intended to destroy the aircraft with all passengers on board and are preparing to strengthen security measures. The incident occurred amid the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran. If the investigation uncovers an Iranian or pro-Iranian connection, the situation could provide an additional trigger for escalation.
The aircraft incident occurred at a difficult moment for the region, the newspaper writes. A fragile ceasefire remains in place between the United States, Israel, and Iran following the active phase of the conflict in the first half of the year.
Middle East expert Alexander Kargin believes that the target of the suspected terrorist attack may have been a strategic facility in Israel. In that case, the region would have plunged into chaos, given the potential scale of the incident, he told the newspaper.
As Nikolay Sukhov, leading researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told Izvestia, "If the investigation uncovers an Iranian or pro-Iranian connection, the situation could provide an additional trigger for escalation."
The incident will also have an impact on Israeli domestic politics, as parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 27. The ruling Likud party, led by Netanyahu, is engaged in a close contest for first place with the opposition political force Yashar. The Israeli prime minister previously said there were signs of an attack being prepared against the Jewish state ahead of the parliamentary elections.
Alexander Kargin believes the situation will benefit Netanyahu politically. Political scientist Elena Suponina likewise believes that the Israeli prime minister will seek to gain the greatest possible political advantage from the incident. Nikolay Sukhov, by contrast, believes that how events unfold will depend on whether the government can convince voters that it is ensuring their security or whether the opposition can demonstrate that the existing system has failed.
According to Izvestia, the Flydubai aircraft incident creates clear risks of renewed escalation in the region. All countries are on heightened alert, with any provocation threatening to trigger a confrontation, particularly against the backdrop of the stalled peace process between the United States and Iran, as the Trump administration needs to resolve the issue one way or another before the congressional midterm elections.
Izvestia: US ends Iraq military mission as Iranian attacks expose vulnerabilities
The United States and its allies have officially concluded Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq, a military campaign launched in 2014 to combat the terrorist organization Islamic State (IS, banned in Russia). Washington says the campaign resulted in the group’s defeat, and the country is now transitioning from an international coalition military mission to ensuring security primarily with its own forces, Izvestia writes.
The US troop withdrawal comes amid a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran that has continued for more than six months. During the conflict, Iranian forces have carried out more than 1,000 air attacks on US military bases in Iraq.
The end of the US mission has been particularly disappointing for Iranian Kurds and Iraqi Kurdistan, Elena Panina, director of the Russtrat Institute, told Izvestia. As a result of the US decision, these forces are losing the American air defense umbrella and air support, she believes. "However, US air defenses have not proved particularly effective in practice," the expert added.
According to the political scientist, this is a classic scenario "in which the declared ‘partnership’ with the United States ultimately leads to yet another disappointment for the Kurds."
"At the same time, the American presence is unlikely to disappear from Iraq entirely. Most likely, it will transition to a covert and bilateral format - the CIA will continue to provide intelligence and logistical support, while the US Armed Forces will maintain contacts through military advisers and instructors," the expert said.
"Despite both Iraq and the United States describing the troop withdrawal as planned, it is driven by military necessity. In effect, America was forced to leave because its facilities had changed from a staging ground into a liability that it was unable to protect," Panina believes.
"As for Iraq, American influence over the country remains. For example, taking US sanctions into account, Baghdad began gradually restricting Iran from using Iraqi airspace and airports for civilian aviation on September 23. US troops are leaving, but the dependence remains," the expert concluded.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US lawmakers resist proposal to ease Russia sanctions in exchange for prisoner releases
Republican and Democratic members of Congress published a statement on social media late on September 29 urging US President Donald Trump’s administration not to ease sanctions against Russia. The lawmakers were responding to reports that John Coale, the US president’s special envoy, had proposed easing economic pressure on Moscow in exchange for the release of unnamed prisoners. According to The Atlantic, Trump responded favorably to the idea. Moscow, however, rejected the possibility of such an exchange, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
In essence, the special envoy is proposing that the United States apply to Russia the approach it has already tested in Belarus, the newspaper writes. Following negotiations with the Belarusian authorities, a number of prisoners were released from the country’s jails, while some economic restrictions on Minsk were lifted. Washington also managed to reach a deal to purchase Belarusian potash fertilizer.
However, Coale’s initiative risks failing before negotiations even begin. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that such an issue could not be discussed in principle.
Vladimir Krotkov, professor at the Faculty of Political Science at the State Academic University for the Humanities, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Coale’s meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had resulted in the potash fertilizer agreement. "At the time, a number of economic issues important to Minsk were resolved, including those involving the Belavia airline and the unfreezing of accounts related to fertilizer supplies," the expert explained. The example of Belarus shows that concessions can be made in negotiations with the United States, Krotkov stressed.
"As for applying this practice to Russia, the situation is more complicated. Belarus is not engaged in hostilities, and its disagreements with the West are not as deep as Russia’s," he said. However, in his view, Coale’s proposal is worth considering.
According to the expert, Coale’s political-economic diplomacy, while imperfect, has merit simply because it could yield some results. "If the approach is to first ease sanctions, to which the Russian economy is highly sensitive, and only then make concessions, a relative de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict becomes conceivable," he said.
Vedomosti: Russian gas exports to EU fall sharply in September
Russian gas supplies to European Union countries via the TurkStream pipeline dropped by 14% in September 2026 compared with the same month last year, to 44.5 mln cubic meters per day, according to Vedomosti calculations based on data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).
According to the calculations, Russian gas exports to the EU amounted to 1.29 bln cubic meters from September 1 through September 29. If flows on September 30 remain at the level of previous days, at 50-53 mln cubic meters per day, monthly exports will total around 1.34 bln cubic meters. This would be 13% below the September 2025 level and 17% lower than in August this year.
TurkStream is the only operating pipeline through which Russian gas is supplied to the EU. It consists of two strings, each with an annual capacity of 15.75 bln cubic meters of gas, equivalent to approximately 43.2 mln cubic meters per day. One string supplies gas to Turkey, while the other carries it to Bulgaria and onward to countries in Southeastern Europe, including Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary.
The decline in supplies was caused by reconstruction work on a section of Bulgaria’s gas transmission system in the last ten days of September, which prompted the country to cut its intake of gas from TurkStream.
The significant decline in TurkStream gas supplies in September was caused exclusively by technical factors, Finam Financial Group analyst Sergey Kaufman and Ekaterina Krylova, managing expert at PSB’s Department of Economic and Industry Analysis, told Vedomosti. Outside the maintenance period, the pipeline operated at its usual high level of around 50 mln cubic meters per day, they noted.
Flows are expected to return in October to their July-August level of 49-52 mln cubic meters per day, the experts said.
Gas storage levels in countries receiving Russian gas, including Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, as well as in the EU as a whole, remain low for this time of year, which will bolster strong demand, Kaufman noted. Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, agreed. He noted that Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, and a number of other countries importing Russian gas are landlocked, limiting their ability to receive liquefied natural gas.
Kaufman and Yushkov forecast that pipeline supplies will total nearly last year’s 18 bln cubic meters in 2026. Krylova expects exports of 17.7-18.2 bln cubic meters, meaning they could either decline by 2% or increase by 1%.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Export bottlenecks could leave Russia with large grain surplus, pressuring prices
Russia’s grain harvest could total 140-141 mln metric tons in 2026, including the new regions, according to Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of analytics company ProZerno. Excluding Donbass and Novorossiya, the harvest is expected at 134-135 mln metric tons, including 88 mln metric tons of wheat, 19.6 mln metric tons of barley, and 15.7 mln metric tons of corn. For the market, however, the size of the harvest itself is less important than the ability to export it: excess grain could boost domestic inventories and put pressure on prices due to difficulties with export logistics, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
According to Petrichenko, under normal circumstances Russia exports around 60-70 mln metric tons of grain annually, while domestic consumption stands at approximately 82 mln metric tons. However, exports have been running below their usual pace since the start of the new season. By the end of September, or since the season began in July, the analyst expects shipments to total around 8-8.5 mln metric tons, compared with 14 mln metric tons in the same period last year.
The main constraint is the Azov-Black Sea basin. According to Petrichenko, the region’s export capacity is only being partially utilized. Some shipments are continuing, but their volumes are currently lower.
Russia is attempting to reroute some of the lost volumes through other routes. Iran has now become the main buyer: in theory, up to 9 mln metric tons can be shipped via the Caspian Sea and Volga ports. Other alternative routes also have limited capacity. According to the expert’s calculations, around 9.5 mln metric tons can be shipped through the Baltic, with additional volumes transported through Baltic ports, by rail, and via the Far East.
Petrichenko sees government purchases as an intervention as one way to ease pressure on the market. However, according to his calculations, even hypothetical government purchases of 3 mln metric tons would not fully solve the surplus problem.
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