MOSCOW, February 17. /TASS/. Russian-Chinese-South African naval drills are about to kick off, reports of issues with weapons supplies to Kiev appear to be part of an information war and chances of an international investigation into the Nord Stream explosions look bleak. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Russian-Chinese-South African drills challenge US claim of Moscow’s isolation
South Africa will host joint Russian-Chinese-South African drills on February 17-26, which will involve three Chinese, two Russian and one South African ship. The exercise will include practicing artillery fire and air defense actions, Vedomosti writes. Russia will be represented by the Admiral Gorshkov frigate equipped with Tsirkon hypersonic missiles, which will be accompanied by a Navy tanker.
The upcoming drills will be the second joint activity for the three countries. Russia, China and South Africa conducted their first joint exercise in the Cape of Good Hope area in November 2019. Russia and China have been holding joint naval drills since 2005, with the latest exercise having taken place in the East China Sea on December 21-27, 2022.
For Russia, participation in naval drills near South Africa means an opportunity to work on maneuvers with countries that have serious cultural, geographical and organizational differences, as well as to practice the use of an advanced frigate in distant waters, said Prokhor Tebin, an expert with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
The West is actively trying to isolate Russia and convince the world that Russia’s policies are nothing but the activities of a rogue country. This is why any events that prove otherwise, particularly in the military field, greatly undermine this ideological message, the expert noted.
In addition, the US seeks to prevent closer Russia-China ties even though Washington’s actions are only pushing the two countries closer to each other, he added. The West emphasizes that China has a rather cautious and pragmatic stance on Ukraine, refraining from fully sharing Russia’s position, and seeks to make Beijing distance itself from Moscow on other issues as well. In this regard, the South African drills, though not the largest ones, are an important sign showing that the constructs of the non-Western world, namely the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, are viable and effective, to say the least, Tebin stressed.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Reports of issues with weapons supplies to Kiev are part of information war
Reports started circulating following the Ramstein-9 meeting on Ukraine that Kiev is not going to get NATO aircraft anytime soon and the number of advanced tanks will be less than expected. However, it doesn’t mean that the Ukrainian armed forces won’t launch their spring offensive that Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin announced. Media reports about issues with Western weapons supplies to the Ukrainian army can be viewed as part of an information war, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
In the meantime, judging by official statements, over 40 Leopard 2 tanks with Ukrainian crews are being readied to be put into operation. According to social media, 60 upgraded Polish tanks are on their way to the Ukrainian border. Besides, 60 Bradley fighting vehicles and 280 other pieces of equipment have been delivered to Europe from the US by sea.
"Given what the Ukrainian armed forces already have, this hardware and weapons will be enough to equip two new army corps that are being formed in the Ukrainian military. As for air support, combat unmanned aerial aircraft may be used," military expert retired Lieutenant General Yury Netkachev points out.
"The ‘friends of Ukraine’ meeting made an important decision on the production of munitions, artillery shells and rockets for multiple launchers and ammunition for air defense systems in some NATO countries," military expert retired Colonel Nikolay Shulgin said. "In order to provide Kiev with an opportunity to carry out a sudden attack on Russian positions, NATO refrained from specifying the results of the Ramstein-9 meeting. However, it’s clear that Western weapons supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces will be increased and Kiev may be expected to launch a counter-offensive by the end of March 2023," the expert emphasized.
Shulgin believes that "Russia stands a chance to prevent such developments by carrying out a more decisive offensive in Donbass and other areas, as well as by conducting missile strikes on military facilities in Western Ukraine and logistics routes to stop the delivery of new weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
Izvestia: Chances of international investigation into Nord Stream blasts look bleak
Germany continues its investigation into the explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and cannot make forecasts about when it will be completed, a federal prosecution official told Izvestia. Russia, in turn, urges other countries to search for answers together.
On February 16, Russia’s State Duma called on the United Nations Security Council to investigate the blasts that hit the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. The lower house decided to contact the UN in the wake of an article by US journalist Seymour Hersh who had blamed the incident on Washington. Meanwhile, Spokesman for the UN secretary general Stephane Dujarric said earlier that the United Nations did not have a mandate to look into the explosions.
"The UN Security Council can hardly be expected to make a decision to initiate an investigation. Clearly, the veto-wielding United States and United Kingdom will block the adoption of any resolution. The main message behind this appeal is more about making other organization members hear Russia’s position. However, it won’t lead to any practical results," Valdai Discussion Club Program Director Oleg Barabanov noted.
Russian lawmakers point out that the main goal of the appeal to the UN is to be heard. "We are dealing with a transnational issue because the project involved the property of several European countries. That said, it is highly important to talk about it within the UN. We need to ensure an international investigation involving Russia," First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma’s Energy Committee Igor Ananskikh told the newspaper.
However, the US keeps rejecting all accusations. An official at the US Embassy in Moscow told the paper that any hints at Washington's involvement in the Nord Stream explosions were ridiculous. Still, the embassy official stressed that Washington would continue to work with its allies and partners to figure out what had happened.
Kommerssant: Europe, Asia to engage in fight for LNG
Europe’s growing demand for liquified natural gas will increase its competition with Asia in the next two years, Kommersant writes, citing a Shell outlook.
In order to offset a drop in Russian gas supplies, European countries, including the United Kingdom, imported 121 mln metric tons of LNG last year, a 60% rise from 2021. The trend will persist in the coming years, making LNG, mostly from the US, the key fuel source for the European Union and changing the global gas market, Shell predicts. The company expects pipeline gas supplies from Russia to nosedive to just about 20 bln cubic meters a year by 2030.
The global market is keeping a close eye on how Asia’s gas demand is changing in 2023 because this is what prices will depend on. In order to avoid price spikes, the company emphasizes the need to pay more attention to long-term contracts, while Europe has been trying to abandon them in favor of the spot market in recent years.
Ivan Timonin from Vygon Consulting believes that the conclusion about Asia, namely China, adopting the role of a balancing market is premature. In his view, China’s LNG demand will grow to about 120 mln metric tons by 2030, which is almost twice as much as the 2022 level. India has also set ambitious goals to increase the share of natural gas in its energy balance from 6% to 15% by 2030, and most of the demand will be met by LNG imports. Similar processes are underway in South and Southeast Asian countries, including Pakistan and Thailand. As for Russian pipeline gas exports, the expert expects that the European market will need at least 40-45 bln cubic meters of Russian gas by 2030 to meet its demands.
Vedomosti: Russia to maintain current level of crude oil exports in March
Russian oil producers expect to maintain the current level of crude oil exports despite the government’s plans to cut output, sources familiar with oil companies’ plans told Vedomosti. According to them, oil production will fall because of a drop in supplies to Russian refineries, which will reduce the export of oil products. However, crude oil exports are unlikely to see a significant decline, one of the sources said.
"Because of sanctions, there currently aren’t enough markets for the export of all the oil products that Russia produces," a source from a Russian oil company explained. According to him, given the current export prices for oil, a number of Russian oil production projects have low profitability, which is one of the reasons behind the decision to cut output.
A source familiar with traders’ data told the newspaper that Russia has already found new markets for its oil products. Turkey increased diesel and fuel oil imports from Russia in December and January, and Russia has also begun to supply oil products to Latin America and North Africa.
Head of the B1 Moscow Energy Center Olga Beloglazova points out that finding new customers is more difficult when it is about oil products and not crude oil. India and China, who have become the largest consumers of Russian oil, have their own oil processing facilities and benefit more from purchasing crude oil from Russia, the expert said.
According to Alfa-Bank Senior Analyst Nikita Blokhin, given the decline in the export of oil products, Russia could increase oil exports, particularly by providing more Russian crude to foreign refineries.
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