MOSCOW, November 12. /TASS/. The Abu Dhabi meeting marks progress toward resolving the Ukraine conflict; the EU faces difficulties reaching an agreement on another loan for Ukraine; and Paris fears Berlin’s missile plans could trigger nuclear escalation. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Abu Dhabi meeting marks progress toward resolving Ukraine conflict
Russia and Ukraine have made another step toward peace following talks in Abu Dhabi, but much will depend on all parties involved in the process, Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky, who headed Moscow’s delegation, said. This time, negotiations focused on the broader European security architecture rather than a temporary ceasefire or territorial issues. Moscow and Kiev also agreed to conduct a large-scale prisoner exchange, Izvestia reports.
Earlier, the European Union, NATO and the United Kingdom signaled their readiness to discuss a new European security architecture. However, a joint document published on the European Council’s website on November 10 states that the system may be based on existing institutions and agreements. A mere willingness by the United States and the EU to discuss European security issues means little, as these issues can only be addressed after the conflict is resolved, which is unlikely to happen in the near future, Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), pointed out.
Experts believe that European countries and Ukraine are not prepared to accept territorial compromises at this point. This is why the discussions in Abu Dhabi moved from territorial issues to the European security architecture, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics, noted.
The positive aspect of the UAE round of talks is that the negotiation process restarted after a pause that began in February 2026, Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov told Vedomosti. The key outcome of the Abu Dhabi meeting is that the parties acknowledged that the issue goes beyond an individual conflict and concerns the entire security system, Alexey Naumov, author of the Vneshpol Telegram channel on foreign policy issues, said.
Peace is unlikely to be achieved in the short term, "unless a miracle happens," Kortunov said. In his view, another round of active hostilities lies ahead, and even the coming winter will not significantly alter the situation, as both parties have learned how to operate under such conditions.
Izvestia: EU struggles to agree on another loan for Ukraine
Countries unwilling to finance Ukraine may be excluded from participating in Europe’s new 45-billion-euro loan to Kiev, Izvestia learned. Earlier, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic said they were reluctant to serve as guarantors of another loan. Meanwhile, Brussels has no plans to halt military assistance to Ukraine while negotiations are ongoing, a European Parliament member told the newspaper.
Funding for Ukraine is included on the agenda of the European Union summit scheduled for November 12-13, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. If the loan is not approved, discussions will resume at the next summit on November 26-27. Countries unwilling to contribute are likely to be allowed to opt out of the new loan, the source added.
Notably, approving the loan does not require the support of all 27 EU member states, as the main requirement is to ensure that no country blocks the decision, Pekka Toveri, chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation to the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee, told the paper. According to him, the EU will continue providing military assistance to Ukraine regardless.
The new aid package for Ukraine is unlikely to be approved at the summit, and discussions could continue until the New Year, political scientist Ilya Shcherbakov noted. Yegor Sergeyev, senior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes that Brussels could turn to the "enhanced cooperation" procedure, under which a group of member states can act without involving other countries. However, even the leading EU countries are exhausting their options for supporting Ukraine.
Disagreements over the new loan for Ukraine could escalate into a prolonged budget crisis within the European Union, forcing the bloc’s leading economies to take on increasingly large financial commitments while bypassing dissenting member states. Ultimately, the EU will face a difficult choice: either reach an agreement that would allow its members to act as one or risk being sidelined in efforts to resolve the main crisis on the European continent.
Izvestia: Paris fears Berlin’s missile plans could trigger nuclear escalation
France fears that Europe could be pulled into a nuclear war with Russia over German missiles. Paris insists that the doctrine on the implementation of the Deep Precision Strike (DPS) secret program be made public to prevent a scenario in which Moscow misinterprets a signal and retaliates with a nuclear strike, Izvestia writes.
What worries the French authorities is Germany’s ambition to acquire long-range weapons, as well as Russia’s potential response. Paris believes Europe risks being inadvertently pulled into a nuclear war due to the lack of clarity.
The Deep Precision Strike missile program, worth about 35 billion euros, was launched by Germany and Britain. Under the initiative, Germany, Poland, the Baltic nations and Northern European countries are supposed to procure a number of ground-launched non-nuclear missiles capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. The plan is to develop a missile with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers by 2034. France, in turn, seeks to align the DPS program with its nuclear strategy. In May, media reports said that Paris was looking to join the initiative to create long-range missiles.
Developing long-range missiles usually requires a long time, Pavel Timofeyev, head of the Section for Regional Issues and Conflicts at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out. "Until recently, Germany had indeed maintained a fairly cautious stance, particularly compared with the plans promoted by France and Britain as part of the Coalition of the Willing. That said, it is difficult for me to imagine the Germans radically changing their policy at this point, especially since such long-range weapons have not yet been created," the political scientist observed.
In his view, Paris is concerned not so much about the consequences of a possible escalation as about the fact that such weapons could diminish demand for France's nuclear umbrella.
Vedomosti: Global interest in climate summits continues to wane
The 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31), currently taking place in Turkey, is unlikely to produce major breakthroughs in the adoption of policy documents, Boris Porfiryev, researcher with the Laboratory for Analysis and Forecasting of Climate Risks of Economic Development at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting, told Vedomosti. Almost all previous conferences have exposed disagreements among participants, and the current summit will be no exception, the expert noted.
Although the absence of the United States from the conference will reduce the emphasis on the climate agenda, the issue of climate change is not going away, Porfiryev emphasized. This is particularly evident from the summer heat waves that have affected Europe over the past several years. European countries and China remain committed to the summit. "Major hydrocarbon exporters are also concerned about the climate agenda, as they fear some final documents addressing fossil fuels could be adopted without taking their interests into account," the analyst added.
US President Donald Trump's administration is skeptical of global warming and climate change, and this skepticism is shared by the Republican Party as a whole, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, said. In his view, the Americans’ absence from the conference will temporarily undermine its importance, as the United States remains a key financial backer of climate-related institutions. "Moreover, under Democratic administrations, the US was in fact at the forefront of promoting climate change issues," the political scientist stressed.
Koshkin expects the Democrats’ victory in the recent midterm congressional elections to reinvigorate the climate agenda in the United States, at least at the legislative level. "This will be a key issue for the Democrats as they seek to demonstrate their opposition to the current administration's policies," the expert said.
Kommersant: Geopolitics affects Russian grain export forecasts
Russian grain export forecasts for the current season have been cut by 2.5% to 39 million metric tons. This would mark an 18.9% decline compared with the previous year. Restrictions on shipping in the Black Sea are the main reason for the downgrade, as negotiations have not yet resulted in a de-escalation of tensions, Kommersant writes.
This is not the first time analysts have revised down their forecasts for Russian grain exports. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated Russian wheat exports at 43 million tons in September, compared with 46 million tons in August.
According to USDA data, the main reason for the lower export forecasts is logistical constraints at Black Sea ports. Analysts at the Center of Price Indexes also point to a gradual reduction in export expectations due to the blockade of the Black Sea. Alternative export routes cannot accommodate Russia’s large-scale grain shipments.
The Sovecon agricultural market research firm believes that a ceasefire in the Black Sea is unlikely before the spring of 2027, although experts had not excluded the possibility of progress on the issue during the Abu Dhabi talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. The broader grain market likely held similar expectations. Last week, these expectations, along with better harvest forecasts for Argentina and Australia, contributed to a decline in global wheat prices.
Russia’s total grain exports amounted to 13.8 million tons in the July-October period, down 35% year on year, according to data from the RusAgroTrans think tank. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in wheat exports, which fell by 39% to 10.3 million tons. Notably, wheat shipments were heavily reliant on the smooth operation of Black Sea ports.
However, the period of downward revisions to grain export forecasts may be nearing its end, Sovecon Director Andrey Sizov said. According to the expert, active operations at Baltic Sea ports are maintaining a relatively high rate of grain loading. Even without a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, Russia will be able to export 32-35 million tons of wheat.
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