MOSCOW, November 12. /TASS/. Sber intends to maintain its return on equity (ROE) at the level of at least 21% annually under its new Strategy 2029, which will allow for the distribution of 50% of net profit as dividends, Chief Financial Officer of Russia’s top lender Taras Skvortsov said.
"The combination of external conditions, regulatory challenges, and the group’s strategic business development goals requires us to achieve an ambitious return on equity target of no less than 21% annually over the horizon of our Strategy 2029. This will enable us to distribute 50% of net profit to our shareholders, while investing the remaining half into the long-term sustainability of Sber’s business model," he said at Investor Day.
Financial results from other types of activities, including non-financial business, are expected to move into positive territory and make a significant positive contribution to Sber’s overall performance over a three-year period, Skvortsov noted.
A distinct challenge for the entire banking sector will be the Central Bank’s announced tightening of capital adequacy requirements, including the restoration of the capital conservation buffer, plans to increase the surcharge for systemic importance, and higher capital requirements for investments in certain types of assets, he added. "We take into account the Bank of Russia’s approved requirements for surcharges and the schedule for their implementation. Amid these conditions, we keep our target capital adequacy ratio under the N20.0 standard at 13.3%," the chief financial officer said.
Skvortsov also presented the macroeconomic forecast from Sberbank analysts, which served as the foundation for the financial model of the Strategy. "Over the next three years, we anticipate moderate economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5%. We also expect inflation to slow down in 2027 and stabilize near the regulator’s target levels in 2028-2029 (around 4%). This outlook would allow the Central Bank to lower its key rate to below 10% as early as 2028," he said.
Sberbank expects the regulator’s cautious approach to easing monetary policy, combined with fairly stringent prudential regulatory requirements for the banking sector, to limit any acceleration in credit activity. "We expect stable performance in the corporate lending segment, with growth in the 10-11% range, and a modest acceleration in retail lending to 9-12% over the next three years. This growth will be driven primarily by secured lending, specifically mortgages and auto loans," the top manager said.
Regarding funds attracted from private clients, Sber forecasts an annual growth rate of 11-13% for the banking sector, supported by a gradual decline in interest rates. Growth in funds held in corporate accounts is expected to lag significantly behind the retail segment in 2027, though it should recover to 9-11% in 2028-2029 as business activity normalizes. In these key markets, Sber expects growth in line with the sector.