Media: Putin's annual year-end conference stirs social, economic debate
Various aspects of Russia’s political, social, economic and cultural life were touched upon at President Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference, which attracted numerous comments, Izvestia writes.
"Putin said that the creation of tactical nuclear arms and the lowering of the threshold for their use was one of the main global threats," Senator Alexei Pushkov told the paper. "As a result of the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the risk arises that Europe will return to the climate of the 1980s, when a similar crisis prompted great fears of a nuclear war in Europe and powerful movements for peace emerged there. As a result, Gorbachev and Reagan struck the agreement that Washington is now about to ditch. The situation may return to what it was at the end of the last century," Pushkov cautioned.
Russian Human Rights Ombudsperson Tatyana Moskalkova believes that "dialogue between authorities and society has been producing results." "Civil society and the media brought up the issue of torture so the country’s authorities are now trying to raise the standards of protection of human rights, and it is very important that the president has expressed his views. His statement should greatly encourage law enforcement agencies to change their attitude towards the ‘authorities-society-individual’ system," she told Izvestia.
Associate Professor with the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Sergei Khestanov pointed out that "the president stated that the Russian economy’s growth rate had decelerated." According to the expert, "slow GDP growth is nonetheless a process of growth, and it is better than an economic decline." "However, there is a need to take measures to boost GDP growth. "The national projects are supposed to play a role in resolving this issue but in addition, administrative pressure must be reduced. Red tape makes many people give up the idea of starting their own business, while the increasing number of small and medium-sized businesses will help our economy get off the oil train," Khestanov said.
Meanwhile, Finam analyst Alexei Korenev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "there are statistics ‘for the people’ and statistics ‘for reports’." "The state remains in a manual control mode and has a total simulation economy. And a simulation economy implies juggling statistical data so that it suits performance targets," the expert said, adding that "such an approach has nothing to do with reality."
"The president’s regular news conference has triggered more debates instead of helping the public agree that the country is heading in the right direction," said Solid Management analyst Sergei Zvenigorodsky.
Media: Who benefits from Trump's Syria pullout?
US President Donald Trump’s plan to pull US troops out of Syria is a mistake and will jeopardize the fight against the Islamic State terror group (IS, outlawed in Russia), said US lawmakers and Washington's allies in Europe and the Middle East. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin supported his US counterpart’s decision. Experts believe that the withdrawal of American troops from Syria has been agreed on with Ankara and eventually may negatively affect Russian-Turkish relations, Kommersant writes.
One of the Syrian armed opposition leaders Colonel Fateh Hassoun told the paper that the Americans were likely to retain a few bases in Syria rather than fully leave the country. The colonel pointed to the no-fly zones that the US and Great Britain had created in northern and southern Iraq to protect the Kurds and Shias from Saddam Hussain. The situation may repeat itself, for now the Syrian Kurds, who have been under the US protection, are in danger.
In an interview with the newspaper, Science Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Science Vitaly Naumkin did not rule out that there was a deal, which actually turned out to be "a great favor that the US did for Turkey." The expert believes that Erdogan seeks to take control of areas east of the Euphrates River and chances are that as a result of its actions, only two zones will be established in Syria instead of three (one controlled by Damascus with the support of Russia and Iran, the second one controlled by the opposition and the third zone controlled by the Kurds and the US-led coalition). "The key question is what impact it will have on Russian-Turkish relations," Naumkin said.
"As far as Israel and some Gulf monarchies are concerned, the situation will not change much for them," military expert Yuri Lyamin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "They would have preferred US troops remain in Syria as another factor pressing the Syrian government and Iran, but their withdrawal will not change the situation fundamentally. Damascus has firm control over most of the country. Goods from Iran are delivered to Syria via routes bypassing areas controlled by US troops so they are unable to prevent these supplies," he added.
According to the analyst, "a thing to remember is that Turkey threatens to launch a new operation against the Syrian Kurds, which may result in Ankara taking control of a large part of northern Syria." "Such developments will hardly make the Syrian authorities and their Iranian ally happy," Lyamin noted. "Besides, the remaining Islamic State units are still active in eastern Syria. Though they do not pose a great threat like they did before but the fight against them may take a long time," the expert pointed out.
Izvestia: United Nations needs deep reforms, says top UN official
The United Nations needs to adapt to today’s realities, UN General Assembly President Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garces said in an exclusive interview with Izvestia.
According to her, one of the reforms initiated by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which is expected to begin in January 2019, rests on three pillars: reforming the existing security architecture; administrative reforms to make the organization less bureaucratic; and reforming the development system. A reform of the UN Security Council will come next, followed by efforts to boost the General Assembly’s activities, since it needs to become a regulatory body with more effective mechanisms to monitor the implementation of resolutions.
While speaking about the INF Treaty situation, Espinosa Garces pointed out, "the nuclear race does not concern only countries that own such weapons but the entire mankind." According to her, if a country decides to pull out of the treaty, then the UN may act as a mediator, but what is more important is that all the interested countries should operate in full compliance with international law.
When asked about ways to encourage the international community to coordinate its efforts in the war on terror, the top UN official noted that "all forms of terrorism are condemnable no matter where it is and whoever is involved." Countries must leave their interests behind, because terrorism is a true threat and there is a need to courageously respond to it through joint efforts, Espinosa Garces stressed.
As for plans to establish a Syrian constitutional committee, she said that the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura has made great efforts to this end, but politicians involved in the Syrian conflict must also demonstrate willingness. According to her, it concerns the Syrian authorities and all mediators. There is hope that the constitutional committee will manage to find a political solution to the conflict, Espinosa Garces noted. "We know that Syrian refugees will not return to their country unless peace is established there and conditions for their return are created. The matter is that the situation has not changed much. We must see what happens next," the UNGA president said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia’s economy may be overheating, experts caution
Economists are skeptical about the Russian economy’s growth potential. According to Alfa Bank’s experts, the country’s GDP may grow by no more than 0.7-1.3%, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. If growth rates are any faster, Russia’s economy will overheat and face a crisis, bankers add.
Among the main reasons behind the Russian economy’s low growth potential, they mention demographic issues and the structure of investment, which "has moved to the construction industry that accumulates 45% of investments at the moment." At the same time, "Russia’s labor force numbers have remained unchanged since 2007." However, the number of the working age population dropped from 103 mln in 2010 to 98 mln in 2017. Another risk analysts point to is economic overheating. They reiterate that in the past 18 years, the country went through two periods of overheating - in 2006-2008 and in 2010-2012 - which were followed by crises. According to bankers, the risk of the economy overheating may emerge as early as next year.
Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta doubt that any overheating is possible in Russia. "The IMF expects the global economy to grow about 3.6% in 2019 but the global economy is not overheating," Alor Brokerage analyst Alexei Antonov pointed out. "In Russia, taxes are increasing and people’s real incomes are declining for which reason our retail shows growth around zero, so there is no way to speak of an economic overheating," he added.
The view that the Russian economy will overheat if its growth rate exceeds 1.3% is because the commodity sectors utterly dominate the GDP’s structure, said Andrei Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Brokerage. "Meanwhile, the Russian economy has been facing significant changes. The shares of agriculture and processing industries have been rising. Accordingly, the economic expansion is not just based on growing mineral production," he noted.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Cuban diplomat emphasizes strong ties with Russia
Cuban Ambassador to Russia Gerardo Penalver Portal gave an interview to Rossiyskaya Gazeta ahead of the 60th anniversary of the Cuban revolution. According to him, the revolution showed that despite a standoff against the US, a small island was able to build a just society thanks to the solidarity and assistance from most of the Latin American countries and the Soviet Union.
Havana’s envoy to Russia highlighted Cuba’s healthcare development. "We have the highest average life expectancy in Latin America - 77 years for men and 80 years for women. We also have the lowest mortality rate for children under the age of one. We have developed effective medications to fight cancer, diabetes and peptic ulcer," the ambassador noted.
When speaking about Cuban-Russian cooperation, the ambassador stressed that the two countries were going through the best period of relations following the collapse of the Soviet Union, as evidenced by Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s recent visit to Moscow. "Cooperation between Russia and Cuba contains a strategic feature so we work together in the important areas of the Cuban economy," the diplomat said, mentioning transport, infrastructure and railroads - the areas, in which Russia has invested the most since 1991.
As for relations with the United States, the Cuban ambassador said that since Trump entered the White House, bilateral relations had plummeted into a deep crisis. According to him, Washington’s strategy against Cuba had always been aimed at destroying the revolution at all costs and it has not changed. Now, the US employs new methods, using social media and trying to influence the younger generation. "We have updated our migration laws so now young people can travel throughout the world. Most of them return to Cuba," the ambassador noted. "Most Cuban youth believe in our socialist project, they only want to have more freedom, more chances to travel and work abroad. But they also have opportunities to develop their projects in Cuba," Penalver Portal concluded.
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