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MOSCOW, September 28 (Itar-Tass) — The first currency trading sessions after the dismissal of the finance minister Alexei Kudrin had been made public passed well despite all concerns. Moreover, the ruble exchange rate against US dollar went 13 kopecks up to 32.29 rubles for the first time since early September. According to the experts, a stronger ruble is explained not by domestic events, but by positive international news reports and the rise of its rate is a temporary tendency.
The Rossiiskaya Gazeta writes that a quite favorable external situation brought about a positive trend to the currency and stock markets. It is noteworthy that the market players do not question a stable ruble position. For instance, German Gref said at the Russia-Singapore business forum on Tuesday that he does not expect a sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate. He believes that the current ruble exchange rate per US dollar that is fluctuating at about 32 rubles is quite adequate and only steeply falling oil prices may prevent it from keeping at this level.
The ruble has regained its position slightly due to a better external situation on Tuesday, the Vedomosti noted. Meanwhile, the rumors are circulating on the markets that the European Central Bank intends to relaunch a program to buy out the bonds, which are secured by mortgage credits and public sector credits. The markets also expect that the European Central Bank will decide to bring down its basic interest rate at its session on October 6. A growing tendency in the oil price is one more positive factor for Russian currency. The Brent oil futures prices reached 105 US dollars per barrel by the middle of the trading session on Tuesday.
According to analytical experts, the news report about Kudrin’s dismissal was certainly negative for the market, but the investors do not react to it yet, preferring to follow the external factors. “Certainly the dismissal of one of the most authoritative world financiers – Alexei Kudrin – is a negative signal for the investment community, but will hardly change the economic policy of the ruling tandem. Moreover, we believe that a qualified financier Alexei Kudrin will remain in some capacity in new state authorities and will influence monetary decision-making,” the Vedomosti quotes the chief of the Forex Club analytical department Andrei Dirgin as saying.
According to the experts cited by the Novye Izvestia, a stronger ruble reported at the Tuesday trading session, is explained not by domestic events, but by positive international news reports and has a temporary tendency. Since Russian economy is still fraught with too many risks, which are getting stronger every day. An analytical expert from the investment company Georgy Voronkov believes that the interest in the US dollar and euro did not reduce cardinally. “The risks in the economy persist and new risks appear, for instance, the dismissal of the finance minister Alexei Kudrin,” he believes. It is noteworthy that foreign investors had a positive attitude to the former finance minister. Therefore, his dismissal creates some uncertainty for the investors. An official who will be appointed to the post of the finance minister should gain their trust and should stop the capital outflow from the country in the future.
“Obviously, this event will have a negative impact on the Russian currency. We should expect that the investors will prefer the foreign currency and will continue to keep their assets in euros and dollars,” the expert said. “The Central Bank must have increased the volumes of currency interventions that brought the ruble higher,” the analytical expert assumed. “The Central Bank reserves are obviously not endless and the ruble exchange rate cannot be kept through artificial measures for a long time,” he underlined.