Kommersant: Putin, Erdogan to pursue compromise on Idlib
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Moscow on Wednesday to coordinate their stances on the situation in Syria after the withdrawal of US forces from the war-ravaged country. According to Erdogan, efforts to create a buffer zone on the Syrian-Turkish border will top the agenda of the talks.
Meanwhile, experts interviewed by Kommersant do not rule out that Ankara is ready to make concessions on bringing Idlib back under Damascus’ control in return for considering Turkish interests in Manbij and on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.
"Turkey could remove roadblocks and allow Russia to conduct a military operation in Idlib together with Assad’s forces in exchange for taking into account Turkey’s interests in Manbij and in northern Syria. To do so, a certain action plan is required. However, the lack of clarity about the timeframe for the US pullout hampers that at the moment," Kirill Semenov, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), told the paper.
He also did not rule out a simultaneous Turkish and Syrian military operation against terrorists in Idlib, where the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, outlawed in Russia) forced pro-Turkish forces to retreat.
For his part, Oytun Orhan, an expert at the Ankara-based Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), confirmed to Kommersant that Turkey’s focus had shifted from Idlib to the area east of the Euphrates. He noted, though, that Russia’s potential military operation in Idlib would harm Turkey, as it will provoke a new wave of refugees.
According to the expert, if the Russian and Turkish presidents reach an agreement on the issue, Russia could be more tolerant to the Idlib problem, thus avoiding unpleasant consequences for Turkey. However, in return for such a compromise, Ankara can expect Moscow’s full-fledged support for its operation in the Manbij area, he added.
Vedomosti: Moscow, Tokyo note positive progress, but peace deal out of reach
The top-level Russian-Japanese talks in Moscow continued for more than three hours, but the two leaders only made brief statements for the media after the negotiations, Vedomosti writes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin described the atmosphere of the talks as constructive focusing on bilateral economic ties, growing trade turnover and joint Russian-Japanese projects. Referring to the peace treaty issue, the president stressed that any solution offered by the negotiators should be acceptable to peoples of Russia and Japan and backed by the broad public in both countries.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe likewise detailed progress in bilateral relations in various areas, including cultural and humanitarian ties, and even recalled the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia.
Negotiations on a peace treaty are at the very beginning, and the solution is unlikely to be found soon, according to political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov.
Meanwhile, Valdai Discussion Club expert Andrei Sushentsov pointed to the inflated expectations from that meeting. "While preparing their public for a solution to the peace treaty issue in the foreseeable future, Japanese officials made a number of statements, which surfaced in the Russian media, sometimes sparking indignation. In particular, the Japanese premier’s remarks that Tokyo will not demand compensation from Russia were addressed to Japanese audiences, but were viewed as some sort of mockery in Russia."
On the whole, the two leaders made it clear that the two countries were systematically moving forward towards a peace treaty, the expert went on to say. "At the same time, Putin’s remark about the lack of a qualitative shift in relations is symptomatic, reflecting Russia’s stance. All indications are that when there is a new wording signifying a qualitative shift, we will approach the signing of a peace treaty," he emphasized.
Izvestia: Showdown over ‘shutdown’ between Trump and Democrats drags on
The ongoing US government shutdown has marred Donald Trump’s second year in office marked recently. A month after the beginning of the shutdown, the Democrats in the US Congress are still opposed to the president’s demand to earmark $5.7 bln for the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico. That means that the federal budget continues to be in limbo. Moreover, according to the experts interviewed by Izvestia, the crisis shows no signs of abating.
The Democrats refuse to compromise, since they have not given up on their goal of ousting Trump, says expert on the US, Alexander Domrin, Professor of the Faculty of Law at the Higher School of Economics. The US president is unlikely to solve the problem by declaring a state of emergency, since that move will require substantial support, which Trump does not have, even in his administration, he explained.
Although federal employees will receive compensation pay, that will not solve a very important problem, he added. "People do not receive wages every other week and cannot pay the bills for their mortgages, cars and education. This, naturally, sows discontent. Trump who offered a compromise twice may not agree to do so for the third time," the expert pointed out.
There is every likelihood that the Democrats will continue to reject any compromise proposed by the Trump administration, Domrin went on to say. On the other hand, it is not quite right to speak about the government shutdown’s adverse effect on Trump’s approval rating just relying on opinion polls, the expert stressed. American sociologists were mistaken in 2016, which means that there is not much confidence in them now. Trump's voting base did not turn its back on the US leader, so he should not fret that his approval rating will fall.
At the same time, the government crisis in the US has not affected bilateral ties between Moscow and Washington, according to Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Head of Federation Council (upper house) international Affairs Committee.
"Congress seems to have forgotten about us because of this standoff, no sanction laws are being considered. They have other problems now. We do not interfere in other countries’ domestic affairs. We wish them good luck in their endeavors and relations with the president," the Russian senator said.
Kommersant: Gazprom Neft mulls construction of its LNG plant
Gazprom Neft is exploring the possibility of monetizing its natural gas resources in the Yamal Peninsula in Western Siberia with a total volume of up to 1.5 trillion cubic meters by building a gas liquefaction plant. According to Kommersant’s sources in the industry, the issue is at an initial stage, and the final decision on the project whose price tag may exceed $20 bln, will depend on Russia’s energy giant Gazprom.
The production of liquefied gas is vigorously supported by the government against the backdrop of the obvious success of Novatek’s Yamal LNG project. According to preliminary estimates by Kommersant’s sources, the cost of LNG production for a potential Gazprom Neft plant could be about $6.5 per MMBtu, which is similar to the cost of new LNG projects in the US, which are gearing up to enter the market in 2022-2025. Potential cooperation with Novatek, which plans to implement its upcoming projects based on mass-produced floating LNG platforms could help Gazprom Neft reduce capital expenditure compared to the construction of a plant ashore.
Independent expert Vyacheslav Mishchenko noted that the most obvious way to monetize gas from Yamal for Gazprom Neft would be selling it to Gazprom, adding that the company’s project looks "very ambitious." At the same time, if the company decides to implement it, there is a window of opportunity for Russia’s LNG in the export market.
However, many issues are yet be resolved, including attracting foreign partners, technology and financing, given that Gazprom Neft is currently under US financial sanctions, the expert said.
Vedomosti: Finance Ministry to offer tax breaks for those getting physically fit
People going in for sports will be able to receive tax deductions from their personal income taxes from 2020, Vedomosti writes, citing the Ministry of Finance’s decision to start work on that project. The proposed move comes in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to impose tax deductions for such expenses.
The goal to develop physical education and sports is part of the Demography national project, according to which, the proportion of people who go in for sports regularly should rise from 37.6% in 2018 to 55% in 2024.
People may get interested in the project, if there is a simple and clear deduction mechanism, says Alexei Artyukh, a partner at Taxology Russia.
The idea seems to be good, but no one should expect the number of Russians going in for sports to skyrocket, according to Irina Troska, Fitness Director at the X-Fit network.
Currently, a mere 3% of Russians go in for fitness (compared to up to 25% in Europe and the US), and any incentive will be useful, says Olga Kiseleva, President of the Association of Fitness Industry Operators. The price is a significant factor, especially in Russia’s suburban and rural areas. However, one should not place their hopes on those who are used to being couch potatoes and are not eager to change their lifestyle. It is rather an effective tool for those who are thinking about fitness sessions, she added.
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