Izvestia: Moscow, Minsk to hold another meeting before New Year's
Russia and Belarus will set up a working group led by Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin, which will tackle all disputed issues between the two countries, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia, commenting on the talks between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko.
Starting from 2020, the intergovernmental group will hammer out proposals for Russian natural gas prices, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov noted.
After the negotiations, which lasted nearly four hours, news emerged that the two leaders had agreed to hold another meeting before the end of this year.
One of the points of contention in relations between Moscow and Minsk is natural gas prices for Belarus. At the meeting of EAEU leaders in early December, Lukashenko even argued about that with Putin in public, but later apologized. Minsk is also dissatisfied with Russia’s so-called tax maneuver in the oil sector and would like to receive subsidies for its refineries from Russia to the tune of $2 bln per year.
Nevertheless, the experts interviewed by the paper are certain that mutually acceptable agreements are possible. The past 20 years have shown that a compromise can be reached, says Jaroslav Romanchuk, ex-presidential candidate and currently head of the Belarusian Scientific Research Mises Center.
"Judging by what we heard from the Russian finance minister, there will be no compensation. However, there will probably be some kind of a loan or some agreements on oil supplies for refining. Therefore, I hope there will be a reasonable compromise," he explained.
A similar standpoint was offered by former Belarusian lawmaker Nikolai Cherginets, who took part in drafting the Union State’s Constitution, which has not yet been adopted. According to Cherginets, it is necessary to "slice and dice all problematic issues and discuss each of them in a calm atmosphere." He was also certain that Belarus would never pull away from Russia.
Kommersant: China calls Russia its best friend
Russia topped the list of countries most suitable for cooperation as part of China’s Belt and Road project, Kommersant writes. An updated ranking on the issue was compiled by Peking University in cooperation with the independent Taihe Institute think tank. Experts rated 94 countries willing to take part in the project in five categories, concluding that at least one-third of them had serious financial, political and infrastructure problems, which could put Chinese investment in those countries at risk.
"So far, the key success indicator for Chinese leader Xin Jinping’s initiative has been the number of countries, which have joined it, along with the growth of Chinese investment or the number of projects. However, after some countries had abandoned previously agreed on projects, it became clear that a more accurate ‘scoring’ is required for its partners," Igor Denisov, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for East Asian and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies at MGIMO University, told the paper.
According to the expert, an attempt to divide those countries involved in the Belt and Road project into several groups taking into account their reliability and prospects for cooperation "means that China is paying increasing attention to both capabilities and risks."
It is only logical that Russia tops the ranking under these circumstances, according to Head of the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center Alexander Gabuyev. "It is a UN Security Council member, which not only supported the initiative but also coined a new term for international policy - "pairing" - thus connecting this initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union. If you look nominally, the biggest investment has been made in Novatek’s Yamal LNG project and the Sibur company," the expert stressed.
Vedomosti: Toughest US sanctions lie in wait, says Russian banker
The most evident backlash from the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Russia’s economy today is the uncertainty and unpredictability in doing business, Russian financier Sergei Dubinin, Head of the Finance and Credit Department at Moscow State University’s Faculty of Economics, writes in his article published by Vedomosti.
"The very prospect of escalating tensions destroys the business climate in our country. Stock market players have long taken these expectations into account, which has resulted in a substantial decline in the capitalization of Russian companies throughout the securities markets," he stressed.
According to Dubinin, it is important to understand that the scale of the current US economic sanctions against Russia is still a far cry from the ones slapped on Iran. "In my opinion, the most stringent sanctions, which could inflict maximum damage on our country, that is, fully disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT and a ban on American and all non-Russian companies from purchasing Russian oil and gas, will not be imposed either together or separately," he wrote.
"Our oil is one-third of the world’s market volume. Our gas accounts for 40% of the consumption in Western and Central Europe. There is no alternative to these strategic raw materials today," he pointed out.
Dubinin noted that it is pointless to use the entire arsenal of sanctions today, since "the persisting threat of their expansion creates the aforementioned atmosphere of uncertainty for Russian businesses."
He added that the preservation of an untapped arsenal of the toughest economic sanctions "is intended to contain the policy of Russian authorities in existing and potential conflict zones."
Besides, "the harsh scenario of sanctions can only be effective in the event of their full support by all allies, but there is no such support, and the struggle around the Nord Stream 2 project is a vivid example of this," he added.
Kommersant: Erdogan invites Trump to Turkey
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invited his US counterpart Donald Trump to visit Ankara next year. This event is expected to reconcile Washington with its problematic ally, Kommersant writes. Erdogan’s statement was made against the backdrop of Trump’s Syria pullout coordinated with Ankara. While banking on Turkey again, the US president gets a lever of influence on Syria, which could weaken the Moscow-Ankara-Tehran triangular alliance. For his part, Erdogan is seeking to play the role of Washington’s key ally in Syria and in the region in general.
Reports on sending an invitation to Donald Trump to travel to Ankara create new intrigue in relations between Russia and Turkey, the two countries, which, together with Iran, continue to be the key foreign players in Syria. The United States is not involved in the Astana peace process initiated by Moscow, Ankara and Tehran. However, according to the experts interviewed by the paper, President Trump’s decision on withdrawing troops from Syria has changed the balance of forces in the Middle East, with Erdogan doing his utmost to be the chief beneficiary from the US exit.
"If Turkey assumes the burden of responsibility for the fight against the Islamic State (IS, terror group, outlawed in Russia - TASS) in Syria and neighboring Iraq, that will result in consolidating Ankara’s positions, turning it into a leading player in these countries. Reconciliation with the US also suggests that President Erdogan will try to step into Israel’s shoes in the sphere of American priorities in the Middle East, " Grigory Kosach, Professor of the Modern East Department of History, Political Science and Law at the Russian State University for the Humanities, explained to Kommersant.
At the same time, the rapprochement between the United States and Turkey will hardly lead to a U-turn in Russian-Turkish relations, according to Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). "President Erdogan needs Moscow, and he will continue his maneuvers. The latest reports on his upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin have become another confirmation of that," he said.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israeli elections derail Trump’s Mideast peace plan
Officials in Washington have said they will be closely following the Israeli parliamentary elections to the Knesset, scheduled to be held on April 9. According to a source in the White House, the presentation of the US "deal of the century" to reconcile the Israelis and the Palestinians depended on the outcome of these elections. The issue at hand is President Trump’s Middle East plan, whose details have been anticipated by both Israel, Palestine and global players, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
It is well-known that various Palestinian forces cannot forgive the White House occupant for his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and his subsequent decision to move the US diplomatic mission there. Due to that, Washington will have to exert efforts to ensure that its plan is suitable for the Arab side as well.
The first survey conducted shortly after media reports on the snap elections show that the Likud political party would retain its current 30 seats in the parliament after the 2019 elections. Some news analysts have noted that, if the elections were held right now, the incumbent prime minister could again forge a coalition of rightwing and religious parties and form a government similar to the current one.
Netanyahu is currently Likud’s candidate for prime minister, Israeli political scientist Ariel Bulstein told the paper. "According to Israel’s rules, he is the one who is nominated for prime minister in the event of the right-wing parties’ victory. There were fears among Netanyahu’s close associates that his rivals could offer someone else from among Likud members. Under Israeli law, there is such a possibility. In that case, it is the president’s purview to task a certain lawmaker, who, in his view, has the best chances, with forming the government. However, the leader explained that he was not going to deviate from the accepted norms. In other words, if the right-wing parties win and get 60 mandates, there is no doubt that Netanyahu will be tasked with that," he explained.
Commenting on media reports asserting that the early elections to the Knesset could slow down the US diplomatic initiative to reach "the deal of the century," he said that the problem would be solved in four months’ time, when the new Israeli government was elected.
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