Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Putin, Trump expected to discuss China at Paris meeting
At the Paris-hosted summit on November 11, US President Donald Trump may raise the issue of China with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes on Thursday citing leading experts in global politics. The recent visit by Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton to Russia signaled that Washington seeks common ground with Moscow on containing Beijing.
Russia expects a full-fledged and serious discussion on the future of bilateral relations with the United States, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov noted. The summit between the Russian and US leaders will be held after the November 6 mid-term elections.
Head of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council Fyodor Lukyanov told the paper that the Paris talks will focus on nuclear agreements, Syria, Ukraine, North Korea and China. The goal of Trump’s administration now is to prevent further rapprochement between Russia and China, and ensure that Moscow has a more reserved stance, he said. Meanwhile, it’s naive to suggest that Russia would change its position on China, which is one of its crucial partners now, he noted.
Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Fyodor Voytolovsky doubts that Russia is an unconditional supporter of China’s policy. "I think that the Trump administration is pursuing an approach based on pressuring two fronts, Russia and China."
Washington says half of China's missiles do not comply with Russian-US treaties, the expert noted. The US missile defense system, which is being deployed in the Asia-Pacific Region, had not been linked to China for a long time and North Korea’s missile and nuclear program was used as an official cover for it. "However, now apparently, judging by strategic documents, Washington is shifting towards simultaneously containing Russia and China."
Izvestia: Will the US ‘blackmail’ Indonesia over defense deals with Russia?
Washington is concerned over Jakarta’s decision to buy Russia’s Su-35 fighter jets and insists that US partners should not engage in "risky deals," an official at the US State Department told Izvestia. Meanwhile, so far no official decision has been made on slapping sanctions against Indonesia under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Moscow opposes any attempts by the US to meddle in Russia’s military and technical cooperation with Jakarta, Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Defense Committee Chairman Vladimir Shamanov told the paper. "This is nothing more than a violation of the rules of free competition. What the Americans said is tantamount to blackmail," he maintained. "But we are seeing a reverse trend," Shamanov noted, citing the example of India and Turkey, which signed arms deals with Russia.
Indonesia won’t break its agreement with Russia in order to please Washington, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexei Drugov stressed.
The guru doubts that the US would curtail its military and technical cooperation with Indonesia. Earlier, Washington supplied F-16 military aircraft and Apache helicopters to the tune of $4.5 bln to the South Asian republic.
"These are illusions that Trump is concerned about international law and morality issues. He mostly worries about monopolies’ interests and when this concerns US supplies and earning dollars, he does not give a damn and won’t cancel anything," Drugov emphasized.
Indonesian Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu confirmed at a news conference last week that the contract with Russia on supplying Su-35 fighter jets to the Indonesian Air Force would be fulfilled despite potential US sanctions. Earlier media reports said Jakarta, which had signed the deal on buying Russian military equipment in February 2018, was delaying its implementation amid qualms over possible US sanctions.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia’s economy faces six major risks, analysts say
Russia’s domestic economic figures over the next 5-10 years will be affected by events taking place within its trade and financial partner countries. That said, export and foreign investments would become key channels of influence. Accordingly, six foreign risks may noticeably influence Russia’s economy through these channels in 2019 and 2020, the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) said in its new macroforecast, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
The first risk is that trade wars between US and China and in general, protectionism in global trade will trigger a drop in Russian export demand, the ACRA analysts noted. This may happen due to slower economic growth within its trading partner nations. A decline in global trade and a rise in interest rates may in theory spark a financial crisis if action by global regulators is insufficient, the study’s authors said. A potential recession in the United States, which may begin in nine to 20 months, is the second danger.
The third risk is China’s debt bubble could pop. In fact, this is virtually an echo of the trade wars affecting the country’s financial market, which is being affected by an accelerating surge of poorly regulated lending and also the share of short-term loan and default of debt securities.
The fourth hazard Russia’s economy faces is the looming US sanctions in November. Their impact will depend on their scale. Thus, a prohibition on American investors from purchasing Russia’s new sovereign debt (now the most probable option) won’t be a major problem. However, a ban on dollar accounts for state banks may lead to decreasing liquidity in the sector and affect competition.
That brings us to the fifth risk, serious oil price fluctuations that may occur in 2019 due to the sanctions against Iran, the unsure future of the OPEC + deal and new US pipelines. Finally, the sixth danger for Russia may be budget crises in European countries.
According to the ACRA study, under the pressure of all six of these risks, Russia’s economy may decline 2.5% next year and may rise just by 0.3% in 2020.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU sanctions not affecting Russia-Italy ties
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte paid a state visit to Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to discuss bilateral cooperation and international issues, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the meeting with Italian businesses in Russia, Conte described Moscow as a strategic partner and invited the Russian leader to visit Italy soon.
Italy is one of Russia’s major foreign trade partners in Europe. Last year, it was ranked sixth on the list and bilateral trade in January-August 2018 reached $17.4 bln, rising nearly 15% year-on-year. Russia’s exports accounted for $6.9 bln, and its imports hit $10.5 bln. The Italian leadership has stated many times that economic sanctions against Moscow should be lifted.
Tatyana Zonova, Professor of the Department of Diplomacy Studies at MGIMO University, doubted that Rome would be able to ease EU sanctions against Moscow. Earlier, Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini said by the year-end Italy planned to take a number of steps towards lifting sanctions.
"Italy has fine relations with the US, which is Italy’s NATO ally. The changes are unlikely until the US stance on Russia changes," the expert said. Italian businesses in Russia have invented rather sophisticated ways of bypassing them. In particular, instead of "Made in Italy" they introduced a "Made with Italy formula" and started setting up joint Russian-Italian enterprises, which are not targeted by sanctions.
A sizable chunk of Italian investments has been poured into small and medium businesses in Russia that are unlikely to face sanctions. So far, none of the 500 Italian companies operating in the country have curtailed their business in Russia, Zonova noted.
Vedomosti: NATO not planning to deploy new nuclear missiles to Europe
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is not planning to deploy new nuclear missiles to Europe despite the mounting "Russian threat" and Moscow’s ‘violations’ of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, Vedomosti writes. NATO is not seeking a new Cold War or an arms race and that’s why they won’t place more nuclear weapons in Europe in response to Russia’s development of new cruise missiles, Stoltenberg said, referring to the 9M729 missile, which the US claims is in violation of the arms control deal.
Unlike many European leaders, who earlier called to preserve the treaty, Stoltenberg agreed with the US leadership that the deal is ineffective if only one party observes it, the paper says. On Thursday, NATO is due to hold a meeting to discuss the fate of the INF deal and other arms control instruments, including the New START Treaty. Moscow rejects all the West’s accusations and blames the alliance for aggressive behavior.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stressed on Wednesday that NATO’s military activity near Russia’s borders has reached an unprecedented level since the Cold War. On Thursday, the alliance is beginning its major Trident Juncture exercises, involving 50,000 troops. Most of the drills will be held in the airspace of Sweden and Norway. Moscow views the exercises as an attempt to "project force" against the country, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said.
Director of the Europe Insight research company Andrei Kulikov said Trump’s announcement on withdrawing from the INF Treaty is driving a wedge between NATO members, and Stoltenberg is trying to defuse the tensions. "But I would not say that now there is the risk of deploying missiles to Europe. In theory, the US may do this without NATO, making an agreement with a particular country. But it’s highly unlikely that any radical measures will be made regardless of the allies’ opinion," the expert said.
Trump’s harsh step is mainly aimed at China, not Russia, Kulikov said, explaining that Washington wants to bring China into the weapons control system, but Beijing won’t accept that. A source close to Russia’s Defense Ministry said the deployment of new US missiles to Europe is not expected in the coming years.
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