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Press review: INF’s future hangs by a thread and Moscow to slap Kiev with countersanctions

Top stories in the Russian press on Tuesday, October 23

 

RBC: INF accord hanging by a thread

US National Security Adviser John Bolton is paying a two-day visit to Russia. On October 22, Bolton met with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. In addition, he is expected to meet with Russia’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin. The visit is taking place amid growing uncertainty over the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in the wake of Washington’s plans to exit the deal, RBC writes. Together with Russia, some European countries and China have cautioned the US against this move.

If the INF accord is terminated, this will be the first time the Trump administration quit an international arms control agreement. However, recent developments have shown that Washington rarely backs out of such decisions. One just has to look at Washington’s decision to withdraw from the Paris (Climate) Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal.

Trump will hardly reconsider this decision this time too, according to Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Moscow Carnegie Center. "It fits well into the US president’s general foreign policy approach to abandon those agreements, which, in his view, are disadvantageous for the US," the paper quotes him as saying.

The legal process for America's withdrawal from the agreement has not been launched yet and will take six months, but the chances of reversing the course are pretty slim, stressed PIR Center Consultant Andrei Baklitsky. The INF Treaty is unlikely to be rescued even in the event of all kinds of concessions from Moscow, the expert pointed out. The principal cause of Washington’s decision to pull out of the agreement is unrelated to Russia's deployment of prohibited missiles. Rather, it is linked to the reluctance of "the current US administration and John Bolton personally to restrict themselves to any arms control," he concluded.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How will Moscow’s tit-for-tat moves affect ties with Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree imposing special economic measures in response to Ukraine’s unfriendly actions against Russian citizens and entities. The government was ordered to hammer out economic countersanctions against Kiev and compile lists of Ukrainian individuals and entities, which will be subject to these restrictions. This is a grave signal to Kiev indicating that it got carried away by playing the sanctions games and crossed the line, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.

One of the most sensitive areas for Ukraine concerning these looming Russian sanctions is food commodities exports, which could be completely halted, the paper quotes Andrei Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Broker, as saying. He did not rule out a ban on investment, which means that Ukraine will lose its key investor.

"Ukraine is a country with a double deficit, that is, a budget and balance of payments deficits, and that means direct and heavy dependence on external financing," the analyst explained. According to Kochetkov, another round of cuts in Ukraine’s export potential would trigger a subsequent reduction in its sources of hard currency, which would adversely affect the hryvnia exchange rate. This sort of national currency devaluation could spark inflation, he noted.

The expert added though that Russian gas transit would be preserved due to persistent requests by Moscow’s European partners. "Consequently, energy resources will be present [in bilateral trade] for a long time, since it is necessary to ensure transit and Ukraine’s fuel needs," he pointed out.

 

Izvestia: US not Iran finds itself isolated, envoy says

Iran reserves the right to withdraw from the nuclear deal, if complying with it offers no benefits for Tehran, Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanaei told Izvestia.

"This is an international agreement endorsed by the United Nations Security Council resolution. Iran and other parties to the deal undertook certain commitments that must be honored. Considering the international status of this plan, Iran is showing great restraint and tolerance by continuing to fulfill the obligations it has assumed. We are interested in obtaining the economic benefits, which were enshrined in that agreement. However, if Iran stops reaping benefits because of the withdrawal by one of the parties to the deal, we, naturally, reserve the right to pull out of the agreement as well," he stressed.

According to the envoy, the global community has condemned Washington for its illegitimate exit from several deals. "It is evident to everyone that the responsibility for these decisions lies with the state rather than one person. An individual who assumed the presidency cannot violate the agreements reached by the previous leader. The Hague court issued a ruling, condemning the US for its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and sanctions against Iran. The five remaining JCPOA participants hold meetings with Iran on the sidelines of the UN to discuss further steps to develop this plan. All that shows that the US, rather than Iran, found itself isolated after its pullout from the nuclear deal," he went on to say.

The ambassador stressed that Washington's sanctions pressure had resulted in a situation where corporations begin mulling reducing their dependence on the US economy and the dollar. "Amid sanctions, the role of large companies will decline in contrast to small and medium-sized businesses. Sanctions have an adverse impact on ordinary people, first and foremost. However, the fact remains that the American method has prompted all counties, even Washington’s friends, to consider relying on national economies and reducing dependence on the US," he said.

Sanaei pointed to Tehran’s interest in purchasing Russian-made aircraft. "We are interested in two types of planes - the Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ-100) and the Irkut MC-21. The latter is undergoing trials and is not available for purchase yet. We need small planes, because Iranian airports cannot handle large aircraft," he explained, adding that two memos of understanding have been signed with Russia’s Sukhoi aircraft manufacturer.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US, China working on Trump-Xi meeting

A team of high-ranking officials and economists in Beijing is exploring the possibility of preserving financial stability amid the trade war between America and China. Beijing recently hosted a meeting of the Financial Stability and Development Committee chaired by China’s Vice-Premier Liu He. According to the Chinese government, the committee’s objective is to prevent and reduce risks in the financial sphere. While Beijing seeks a compromise with Washington, the US administration does not seem to have a unified stance on the issue, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Meanwhile, the groundwork is being laid for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The two leaders are expected to meet at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires and try to put an end to the standoff.

"China has a desire for a compromise and an aspiration to negotiate. However, the Americans interpret this compromise as China’s complete rejection of the national development pattern and abandoning the forefront of science and technology. This is not a compromise, this is surrender. China is not ready for surrender but is ready for negotiations," Alexander Lomanov, Chief Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Far Eastern Studies, told the paper.

It is unclear to what extent the Americans are prepared to talk in earnest. This could be more political theatrics similar to what is happening in Russian-US relations. On the one hand, Trump assures he views Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a positive light and, on the other, he severs the last remaining ties between the two countries. The expert did not rule out that Trump would pursue the same policy with respect to Beijing, asserting that Xi Jinping is his friend and, at the same time, seeking to contain China militarily and economically. In that case, a compromise is impossible.

 

Kommersant: Parliamentary elections bring back bloodshed to Afghanistan

Afghanistan has held the third parliamentary elections in its history after the ousting of the Taliban regime. Their final results will be announced by the end of the year due to a very unstable situation in the country caused by a series of terror attacks. What’s more, the Taliban, which is reluctant to be part of Afghanistan’s peaceful reconstruction project, has expanded the zone of its influence when compared to 2010, when the previous parliamentary elections were held, Kommersant writes.

According to Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry, a total of 27 people were killed throughout the country during the voting on October 20-21, while 100 others were injured.

"These elections will not be a milestone in Afghan history. On the contrary, they will indicate yet again that the price of human life continues to be trivial for both the Afghan authorities and the armed opposition," Russian expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov told the paper.

"All that is a far cry from the real democratic process sought by the government, according to Kabul," he stressed.

Omar Nessar, Director of the Center for Contemporary Afghan Studies, likewise emphasized that Afghanistan had been unprepared for the elections. According to the expert, these parliamentary elections are likely to aggravate the political crisis in the country. He noted that the outcome of the parliamentary elections would be a bargaining chip between the systemic opposition and the president’s team. There is every likelihood that the president will consolidate his position in the parliament, Nassar was quoted as saying. He explained that this would create favorable conditions for the president to run and win in March 2019.

 

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