Izvestia: Finnish Foreign Ministry expects to host successful Russia-US summit
Finland hopes that the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump will be "smooth and successful", the Finnish Foreign Ministry’s press service told Izvestia. The host country is certain that there are prerequisites for the summit’s positive outcome, and Helsinki will do everything in its power to help. Meanwhile, two sources, a Russian diplomatic one told Izvestia, and another in Washington’s political circles agreed that major breakthroughs should not be expected, but the meeting could lead to certain changes.
Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Izvestia that 1,436 journalists from different countries were officially accredited for the summit. The Helsinki Police press secretary told Izvestia that around 2,000 officers would provide security on Monday.
According to the Russian diplomatic source and the source in US political circles, a smooth meeting should not be expected, though the field of strategic stability offers the greatest prospects for an agreement. Too often, the parties hurl accusations at each other of violating various arms reduction and arms control treaties. Yet, if a compromise is impossible on specific issues, at least it is always possible for the presidents to declare their willingness to discuss strategic stability, Izvestia wrote.
In addition, Trump will almost certainly touch upon the narrative of Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 US election and "request that they not interfere anymore," a source in Washington told Izvestia. Moreover, Trump will most likely announce that such a conversation took place, thereby scoring political points at home.
A source in Russian diplomatic circles told the newspaper that both parties perfectly understand the abnormality of the current state of bilateral relations and intend to roll back tension by all methods currently available. In other words, changes are possible, but breakthroughs are unlikely.
Vedomosti: Will the World Cup boost Russia’s GDP and business?
The FIFA 2018 World Cup has ended, leaving memories of not only the Russian national team making it to the quarterfinals, but also the quality of how the event was organized, Vedomosti wrote. According to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, this was the "best" World Cup. Chairman of the Local Organizing Committee (LOC) Russia-2018 Arkady Dvorkovich believes that Russia now has a different reputation and this, in his words, is more important than GDP. According to experts interviewed by the newspaper, it is difficult to argue with this, because the championship will have a modest effect on the economy.
Based on the Russian Central Bank’s figures, the World Cup will accelerate the growth of Russia’s GDP this year by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, primarily in the second quarter thanks to the increase in retail, hotel, restaurant, and transportation service sales. Consumer demand in June - July will surge $5 bln, according to Chief Economist for Russia and CIS at Bank of America Vladimir Osakovsky.
Spending by foreign fans helped bolster the ruble weakened by another round of anti-Russian sanctions, Moody's analysts noted. The inflow of currency even reduced the deficit of services in the balance of payments in Q2 2018 - for the first time since Q4 2016, VTB said in a report. However, growth of demand during the championship won’t significantly affect the economy. According to a representative of the Economic Development Ministry, the upshot will be more likely seen from investments in transport, telecommunications and energy infrastructure. Its operation and the growth of tourist inflow can add another 150-210 bln rubles ($2.4 bln - $3.36 bln) for another five years to GDP annually, McKinsey experts estimated in a study prepared for the government.
As for the championship’s price tag based on official figures, Russia shelled out 683 bln rubles ($10.9 bln). Yet, this would hardly lead to any noticeable economic growth in the long term, UBS analysts noted. Thus, the final comprehension of the tournament’s economic benefits will come only after a few years, and the long-term effect will be insignificant, even weaker than from the Olympics in Sochi, according to Moody's analysts.
Deputy Director of the Development Center Valery Mironov advised using "free" international advertising, which the championship provided to Russia - to boost manufacturing exports, and to promote the "Made in Russia" brand.
The long-term effect, according to the Development Center, will be immaterial -from a surge of enthusiasm and patriotism. A "positive shock" of the World Cup can stimulate consumption and reduce fears about economic uncertainty, Mironov explained. However, the surge of patriotism will not last long, political analyst Alexei Makarkin cautioned. The effect of the last World Cup, in his opinion, could be compared to the outcome of the 1980 Olympics. "This was among some bright childhood memories for many people, but such emotions quickly faded," the expert said.
Izvestia: German lawmaker suggests Trump get used to Nord Stream 2
US President Donald Trump should accept Germany’s decision to greenlight the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Chairman of Alternative for Germany party Jorg Meuthen told Izvestia. The German politician is scheduled to arrive in Russia on July 16 to participate in an international industrial forum entitled: "Engineers of the Future". In addition, he spoke about the senselessness of NATO’s expansionist policy and the negative effect of anti-Russian sanctions.
Speaking about the Nord Stream 2 project as a source of disagreements between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald Trump, Meuthen told the newspaper that it seems like Trump is trying to act in the interests of his country. Thus, when the White House occupant criticizes Germany for supporting the construction of the pipeline, he should be told that the project is in Germany's interests, he said, adding that the US leader needs to come to terms with Nord Stream 2.
According to Meuthen, it is unlikely that the EU will change its policy towards Crimea in the near future. Despite the fact that foreign politicians do come to the peninsula, this does not mean that the situation is on the way to normalization, since the European Union continues to blame Russia for violations of the Minsk accords.
Similarly, the politician added that he is against NATO’s expansion into Ukraine and Georgia. The alliance must understand that Russia feels threatened if an alien military-political bloc is creeping towards its borders, he added.
On the topic of sanctions, Meuthen told Izvestia that his faction in the German parliament has always opposed sanctions against Russia. The politician feels that his faction - the strongest opposition party in the German parliament - is actively working to increase pressure to lift sanctions and bolster commercial prosperity. However, the current establishment does not want to abandon its policy, despite the fact that it damages Germany’s welfare, and contradicts the economic interests of the country, he told the newspaper.
Kommersant: Republican win in midterm elections can bolster Trump’s presidency
Elections to the US House of Representatives and the Senate will be held on November 6, and all of the nation’s attention is fixed on this event. On Tuesday, Alabama residents will choose candidates from the Republican and Democratic Parties, after which the primaries will be held several times a week in US states until mid-September. According to Kommersant, these elections will practically become a vote of confidence for the current White House occupant, President Donald Trump. A Republican victory can be a triumph for Trump, according to US experts interviewed by Kommersant. Otherwise, the Democrats will tie the president’s hands and try to keep the topic of "Russian intervention" on the agenda until 2020.
According to Kyle Kondik, an expert at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, the US midterm elections are often viewed as a referendum on confidence in the president. Thus, on November 6, Americans will elect not only 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators (one-third of the US Senate), but the electorate will in fact assess the work of Trump.
American experts interviewed by Kommersant explain that although the forecasts do not rule out a Republican victory, the figures are not on their side. According to Kondik, since the American Civil War (1861-1865), 39 midterm elections to the Congress were held, and the incumbent president's party lost 36 of them. This is because the political trends that lead a president to victory, usually weaken after two years, Johns Hopkins University Professor Benjamin Ginsberg told Kommersant.
If the Republicans get the majority of seats, for which there is practically no precedent in history, it will really help the president to advance his agenda until 2020, Professor of Political Science at Iona College in New York Jeanne Zaino told Kommersant. In Ginsberg’s view, if the Republicans win, Trump will successfully advance his agenda on border security, tariffs, military spending, easing tensions with Russia and confrontation with China.
Vedomosti: Russian government plans to alleviate consequences of tax maneuver in oil industry
Following the results of meetings with oil companies, the Russian government agreed to amend the draft law on the tax maneuver, a source in the government, and a federal official told Vedomosti. In addition, a representative from Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak’s office confirmed the information. According to the representative, the amendments to the second reading in the draft law on the tax maneuver were sent to the State Duma on Friday.
The tax maneuver assumes a phased reduction of the export duty from 30% to zero and a corresponding systematic increase in the tax on extraction of minerals by 2024. Oil industry players feared that the maneuver would hit profitability of oil refining.
The first concession for the oil industry is the support of remote refineries, the negative excise will be increased for them - due to special "logistic coefficients", two sources told Vedomosti. The oil industry representatives fought for this issue, a source in the financial and economic block of the government told the newspaper. According to the source, the coefficients will range between 1.05-1.5. The exact refineries and coefficients were not stated.
Up to 2024, refineries under modernization will also be released from the obligation to supply at least 10% of the produced gasoline of upper classes (from Euro-5) to the domestic market, government official told Vedomosti.
Along with this, the government will receive the right to return the export duty on oil if its cost in a force majeure situation grows or falls by more than 15% per month, two sources in the government told Vedomosti.
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