Kudrin, who leads the Civic Initiatives Committee, argues that the sanctions have greatly harmed the investment conditions on the domestic market as the share of foreign borrowings is rather high.
“We are on a trend towards worsening investment conditions,” Kudrin believes.
He said Russia is entering a full-blown economic crisis, with the country’s GDP likely to fall by 2-4% in 2015.
According to the ex-minister, if oil prices stay at about $80 per barrel in 2015, Russia’s economy will shrink by 2%. If oil prices fall to $60 per barrel, Russia’s economy will contract by 4%, Kudrin said.According to him, Russia’s imports may plunge by 40% next year amid the ruble’s slump and the inflation may hit 12-15%.
The ex-minister also said Russia’s investment-grade sovereign rating may be downgraded amid negative economic developments in the country.
“Russia’s rating will be downgraded next year and will fall to a junk grade,” he said.
The ex-finance minister said he expects a series of defaults in Russia next year.