MOSCOW, December 9. /TASS/. The current crisis in relations between the West and Russia may result in some level of de-escalation or, conversely, further escalation, according to a new report by the Valdai International Discussion Club.

Valdai Club Program Director Ivan Timofeyev authored an extensive analytical report on the Russian initiative for a new security architecture in Eurasia, titled "Eurasian Security Architecture: Genesis, Principles, and Potential Development Paths." According to Timofeyev, the current crisis in Eurasian security, "with the Ukrainian conflict at its center," does not allow the possibility of a larger confrontation between the West and Russia to be fully dismissed.

"Russia is in a state of acute political tension with the West. However, it cannot be ruled out that this confrontation will subside. Equally, the possibility that it may intensify cannot be excluded," Timofeyev warned. In this context, Russia’s initiative on the new Eurasian security architecture is an important step toward promoting a de-escalation scenario, as it "focuses on the principle of equal and indivisible security for all."

"The Eurasian security architecture covers the entire continent. It is not limited to a narrow view of Eurasia as a post-Soviet space or as an association of Russia, China, and Central Asian countries. Russia considers the entire continent within its geographical scope and the complexity and diversity of all regions united by Eurasia. The US’ allies along the continent’s borders are included in consideration of Eurasia’s security architecture.

Moreover, dialogue with them on security issues may be possible in the future," the report said. "The key goals of the Russian initiative are to reduce the risk of military and other conflicts in Eurasia, ensure conditions for economic and humanitarian cooperation without politicization, and create a basis for the peaceful resolution of conflicts while respecting the customs and interests of the region’s numerous countries," the document stated.

Cracks in European security

The report’s author believes that an important component of the Russian initiative is its flexibility and adaptability to various interregional formats, as well as its coordination with the Chinese global security framework initiated by President Xi Jinping. "The Russian and Chinese initiatives differ in many respects, such as geographic scope and implementation details. However, they coincide on fundamental principles, such as equal and indivisible security for all and respect for the sovereignty and diversity of states. Moscow is open to examining the initiatives of other countries and associations, especially if these ideas are based on similar approaches," Timofeyev noted. "The composition of Eurasia’s new security architecture is, of course, only a conceptual model that can and should be refined as the system develops," he added.

The adaptability of the Russian initiative, while retaining its universal core principles aligned with the UN Charter, makes it a promising prospect for development, especially given the current state of European security, which faces challenges in multiple areas, including: NATO's eastward expansion; gradual deterioration of arms control regimes; activation of NATO's military mechanisms; and military interventions that immediately escalated into "a series of conflicts" or "laid the groundwork for them," as well as "significant Western political interference in the internal political processes of the post-Soviet space." In 2022, these tensions erupted into a large-scale military conflict in Ukraine, which received substantial military and financial support from the West. Only the risk of direct confrontation with Moscow and the prospect of nuclear escalation prevented Western intervention, the expert recalled.