MOSCOW, September 17. /TASS/. The European Commission chief calls for arming the EU, the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on the global economy, and the Pentagon’s Iran war spending highlights the need to replenish missile stocks. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: European Commission chief calls for arming EU

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gave her annual address to the European Parliament, speaking about the trade imbalance with China, Ukraine-related issues, the need to tighten sanctions on Russia, and rising defense expenditures. Among the new initiatives she outlined was a proposal to make Canada the European Union’s first associate member, a move that could help Ottawa lessen its dependence on Washington, Izvestia notes.

One of the key political messages was that the European Union should pursue its own path, eliminating any critical dependencies on other countries. The EU’s continued rearmament should be seen as a response to external threats. As expected, most of the speech focused on Ukraine. Von der Leyen pledged to provide Kiev with large-scale support, unprecedented since the start of military operations.

The European Union is shifting from an open-market approach toward economic security and strategic autonomy, Capital Lab partner Yevgeny Shatov said. The new policy is focused on industrial competitiveness, relations with China, energy and commodity independence, defense, and the development of the group’s own network of economic partnerships.

St. Petersburg State University Professor Natalya Yeryomina pointed out that rather than calling on EU members to unite to resolve common issues, von der Leyen had in fact depicted the European Union as a besieged fortress. According to the expert, Brussels is offering only two options for tackling the problems that have accumulated: sanctions and further armament. In such a situation, the defense sector is set to become one of the few areas where European businesses can expect substantial investment.

"It is military logic that is increasingly guiding European politics. Officials seek to solve almost every problem through confrontation and preparations for a potential conflict, citing threats from other countries. In short, the message is that the European Union is without fault but has to respond. This is how EU countries and their citizens are being urged to accept the current initiatives," Yeryomina concluded.

 

Izvestia: Middle East conflict continues to hit global economy

A conflict between Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement and Saudi Arabia is posing a tangible threat to shipping in the Red Sea. The more severe the situation there becomes, the greater the negative impact on the global economy from the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has already exploited the instability, refusing to resume talks with the United States until its terms are met, Izvestia reports.

Alexander Frolov, deputy director general of the National Energy Institute, doubts that alternative routes will be able to completely offset supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If disruptions in the waterway persist, the global market will struggle to compensate for the lost volumes, while building new pipelines would take years.

Difficulties along the Reds Sea route only underscore the need to urgently resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a strong bargaining chip for Iran. Tehran does not hesitate to use it, increasing pressure in negotiations with the US. Middle East expert Yelena Suponina believes that Tehran is not rejecting talks with Washington but is unwilling to resume them unless the US position changes. Sanctions on Iran and a lack of trust between the parties remain among the major challenges. Meanwhile, Qatar, Oman, Pakistan and Turkey continue their mediation efforts.

As for the Houthis, their activities are largely a separate factor. According to Suponina, their operations should not be automatically viewed as a direct continuation of Tehran’s decisions, even though the two sides are allies. The conflict in Yemen has its own logic, rooted primarily in years-long disagreements between Ansar Allah and Saudi Arabia.

Still, the impact on the oil market is the same: shipping risks are rising, as are commodity transportation costs. Judging by the positions currently held by Washington and Tehran, an early agreement appears unlikely. That said, the market remains particularly sensitive to continued strikes and reports of disruptions to the negotiation process.

 

Vedomosti: Pentagon’s Iran war spending highlights need to replenish missile stocks

The Pentagon’s spending on the US operation against Iran, which began on February 28, reached $38 billion by August, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office. The figure does not include the costs of replacing spent ammunition and equipment lost in battle, additional aircraft flight hours or fuel, Vedomosti writes.

There is still no diplomatic solution in sight to the US-Iran conflict. If the conflict continues but tensions remain low, analysts expect the Pentagon’s monthly spending on the campaign to reach $2-3 billion.

The Congressional Budget Office’s report is a warning that the conflict could drag on, affecting the 2026 election campaign, and not in Republicans’ favor, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, said. He stressed that Democrats would seize the opportunity to criticize President Donald Trump and score political points. However, in this particular case, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth is likely to face stronger criticism, as he has come under growing pressure in recent months. Still, the expert warned against overstating the report’s importance for the domestic balance of power in the United States.

"The situation of controlled chaos suits Trump for the time being, and half-hearted diplomacy is proving effective in terms of achieving his present goals. The results of the midterm elections will be the turning point. If Republicans manage to maintain control of one of the chambers of Congress or at least prevent Democrats from gaining an overwhelming majority, no diplomatic breakthroughs should be expected with regard to Iran," the expert pointed out.

The figures provided in the report are close to reality because, despite its low intensity, the current Iran campaign is quite expensive, American studies expert Igor Skrobtak emphasized. He attributed the high costs to the use of expensive ammunition.

 

Vedomosti: Russian ministers participate in US-hosted G20 events

The US city of Houston hosted a meeting of G20 energy ministers, which was also attended by a Russian delegation, Vedomosti reports.

The meeting followed a similar gathering of G20 finance ministers in Asheville, where Russia was represented by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. In addition, a G20 meeting of innovation ministers took place in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on September 1-2, with Russia’s delegation headed by Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media Minister Maksut Shadayev.

The United States is expected to host a G20 trade ministerial and two meetings of foreign ministers before the end of the year, with the top diplomats first gathering on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September and then holding a full-scale session in Atlanta. The participation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is set to travel to New York soon, is being considered. Finally, a G20 summit is scheduled to be held in Miami on December 14-15.

The impact of the Iran war on the market was the focus of the Houston meeting, Alexander Frolov, director general of the International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said. The Russian delegation’s presence is logical when the discussions address ways for energy-surplus G20 countries to help energy-deficient nations. First and foremost, the United States and Europe are interested in the Russian authorities’ outlook for the resumption of fuel exports, Frolov noted.

Russian ministers attending G20 meetings in the United States reflect the Donald Trump administration’s principle of maintaining involvement when it comes to a major player in global energy and, in part, economic security, even amid partial confrontation, Russian International Affairs Council Director General Ivan Timofeev pointed out. Such an approach allows Russia to make its point, but the situation facing the country is unlikely to change much at present. The most the US could do is issue new Russia-related general licenses rather than lift or ease sanctions, the expert said.

 

Media: Russian oil prices top Western crude

The price of Russia’s Urals export crude has surpassed that of the North Sea Brent benchmark. The main reasons include renewed tensions in the Middle East and growing demand in China, Izvestia reports.

Historically, Urals traded at a discount to Brent due to its higher sulfur content and greater density. After sanctions on Russia were introduced in 2022, the discount reached double digits at some points. Now, however, Brent prices in London are being pressured by recession concerns in Western economies and US sales from its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, refineries in China and India are facing oil shortages.

Demand from key purchasers of Russian oil has risen significantly. They are willing to pay a premium for the absence of military risks to transportation and guaranteed deliveries, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko said.

An escalation of violence on the Arabian Peninsula could prove costly for the global oil market. The current impact on global oil logistics could double if disruptions are recorded in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If the Red Sea is fully closed to commercial shipping, global oil trade will become divided into two isolated hemispheres. Europe will lose access to Asian and Middle Eastern diesel fuel, having to rely on expensive supplies from the US and West Africa. Asia, in turn, will be cut off from Atlantic deliveries. "As reserves run out and oil production declines, prices could continue to rise," Dudchenko noted.

If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, the Asian premium for Russia’s Urals crude could grow as Chinese and Indian refineries become fully dependent on Russian supplies.

Buyers are running out of alternatives to Russian oil, S&P Global analysts pointed out, according to Kommersant. A Vortexa review says Chinese refineries are seeking to control import spending by favoring shorter supply routes. Oil supply disruptions in the Middle East will generate additional demand for Russian crude, Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil and gas industry analyst at Euler, concluded.

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