MOSCOW, June 23. /TASS/. The UK Labour Party is weighing a candidate for a new leader after Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation; the US is reshaping the global oil market to its liking; and glorifying Nazism could cost Ukraine Poland’s military support. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: UK’s new PM to continue predecessor’s foreign policy

Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister and leader of the Labour Party, has announced his resignation. He will remain in office until a new party leader is elected. According to him, the Labour Party leadership will prepare a special schedule for the transition of power, during which candidates for the party leadership can be nominated for the internal party vote on July 9-16, before Parliament breaks for the summer. Thus, according to Starmer, the new party leader will be elected by early fall.

Against this backdrop, the UK government can expect three potential scenarios. The first is considered by the Labour leadership to be one of the riskiest and involves a full-scale party primary for candidates seeking the party leadership. The second scenario was proposed by Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK - the country’s most popular political party. He once again called for a snap general election. According to media reports, the third scenario appears to be the safest for a significant portion of the Labour Party: the parliamentary caucus appointing the 56-year-old former mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, without holding a contested election. The politician previously held ministerial posts under Prime Minister Gordon Brown (2007-2010). According to the YouGov polling agency, Burnham is the most popular Labour figure in the UK.

The politician’s main task at the party level will be to unite its far-left and moderate factions, Sergey Shein, a research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Burnham could rely on his experience as mayor for matters related to social reforms and the economic revitalization of northern England. In terms of general domestic policy, the politician plans to follow the traditional Labour platform, which aims to increase access to housing, education, and healthcare. As for foreign policy, Burnham’s image as a pragmatic politician is unlikely to significantly affect London’s current international course. He will maintain special relations with the US and close ties with the EU. On the issue of Ukraine, a sharp departure from the current UK strategy is unlikely.

Despite Burnham’s strong chances of winning the party leadership race, the Labour Party may try to field a token opponent to preserve a certain level of legitimacy for him, Yelena Ananyeva, director of the British Studies Center under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Europe Institute, noted. "[Former prime ministers] Gordon Brown (2007-2010) and Rishi Sunak (2022-2024) became leaders of the Labour and Conservative parties without much competition and were reluctant to hold snap elections," she emphasized. As for UK’s foreign policy in the event of a Burnham victory, no major changes are expected: allied relations with the US and Europe will remain intact, as will London’s current stance on Ukraine. "Burnham won’t surprise anyone here," the expert concluded.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How US reconfigures global oil market to its liking regardless of OPEC+

Oil prices no longer depend on production and export decisions made by countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement. Since early March, the main factor shaping prices has been the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by two countries: Iran and the US. But despite all its capabilities, Tehran is merely responding to external challenges while the US directs the course of the crisis.

In essence, the US has acquired the perfect tool for adjusting the oil market in its own favor. When the strait is closed, the oil supply drops by at least 10%, causing prices to rise. When the strait is open, supply increases and prices fall. Moreover, words alone can have a mild influence on the market. Trump has already mastered this art. While the Strait of Hormuz does not directly affect Russia, the country’s budget depends on oil prices and US sanctions targeting Russian oil exports and buyers.

Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the US is creating a new system for managing the global oil market. According to the expert, this applies not only to the Persian Gulf: sanctions against Russia operate on the same principle. When it’s in the US’ interest, sanctions are lifted. When it’s not, they’re reinstated. The ultimate goal is US dominance in all global energy markets.

Simonov noted that the rise in oil prices this spring was necessary for the US to launch a new investment cycle in American oil and gas production. And they succeeded. Now they need to lower prices to calm American fuel consumers.

According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, the US is not attempting to replace OPEC+ legally, but rather, it is shifting the center of influence from "who produces how much" to "who controls, guarantees, and enables barrels to flow." Against the backdrop of the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, and the bloc's chronic internal disagreements, such a scenario weakens the alliance's unity. However, it does not break OPEC+ apart in and of itself. Rather, it accelerates the organization’s transformation from a disciplined cartel into a more flexible coordination mechanism with a Saudi core and an increasingly independent periphery.

According to Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, Iran still plays the leading role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the situation around the strait itself - coupled with the sanctions and the US Treasury Department’s manipulation of them - poses an undeniable threat to OPEC+. Mishchenko pointed out that many of Trump’s actions and statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the oil market as a whole are linked to the personal financial interests of the US president and his inner circle. However, the global oil market, including its largest consumers, China and India, cannot function under these conditions for long. Such market regulation is also unacceptable for Russia. Tyun explained that, as long as the Middle East remains unstable, Russian oil benefits from the overall price premium. However, as soon as the US gains greater control over the supply route and brings Middle Eastern flows back to the market simultaneously, Russia will face tougher competition. The geopolitical premium will disappear, and the discount on Russian oil will once again become the main sales tool.

 

Izvestia: Glorifying Nazis could cost Ukraine Poland's military support

Paying tribute to Nazism could jeopardize further military support for Ukraine from Poland. Warsaw recently suspended the transfer of new weapons shipments, including MiG-29 jets, from its stockpiles to Kiev. Now, Poland may further hinder NATO shipments through the air hub in Rzeszow, block Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and tighten conditions for refugees in Poland. The reason lies in the naming of a Ukrainian military unit after the Bandera followers. However, the EU sees no problem with Kiev appeasing radicals, considering it an advantage in the Ukrainian conflict.

Relations between Kiev and Warsaw have become extremely tense. Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped Vladimir Zelensky of the country’s highest honor, the Order of the White Eagle. The head of the Kiev regime pointedly returned it to Warsaw by mail. In a show of solidarity, former Ukrainian presidents Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Pyotr Poroshenko, along with other high-ranking officials, have given up their Polish awards.

Further deterioration of relations could paralyze bilateral cooperation, particularly in the area of military logistics. Since 2022, the city of Rzeszow, located near the Ukrainian border, has served as NATO’s main transportation hub. Up to 80% of Western military aid passes through it. Poland cannot directly block the hub due to the risk of a serious conflict with the alliance’s leadership. However, Warsaw could engage in covert disruption by imposing bureaucratic delays, conducting endless technical inspections of trains and trucks, and creating customs delays. In other words, Poland can prolong the process as much as possible, Valdai Club expert Andrey Kortunov noted. "But Poland will still operate within the boundaries set for it. If it abuses its position as a transit country for weapons, it will face problems at the EU level," he said.

There may also be purely technical issues. As the largest sponsor of Starlink for Ukraine, Poland could stop payments for satellite communications, which would effectively pressure Kiev, political analyst Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, emphasized. Warsaw has provided and continues to pay for more than 29,500 of the 47,000-50,000 terminals operating in the country. Since 2022, Poland has spent more than $86 million from its budget on equipment purchases and subscription fees.

The conflict could also impact Ukraine’s EU accession process, in which Poland holds veto power at every stage of European integration. Nawrocki has already made it clear that Warsaw will block this process if Kiev does not abandon the "cult of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army." At the same time, Brussels does not openly oppose Nazism in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large for the crimes of the Kiev regime Rodion Miroshnik stressed. "This is more of a Polish-Ukrainian issue than a pan-European one. Europe actually views fascism and neo-Nazism, which are flourishing in Ukraine, quite positively. And I think that they often see this as a military advantage," the diplomat added.

 

Izvestia: Berlin's course toward militarization poses risks to Germany's neighbors

Berlin’s militaristic course and plans to build the strongest army in Europe will have serious consequences for Germany’s neighbors, who have thus far remained quiet on the matter. According to experts, Germany’s current policy "strongly resembles revanchism" and significantly breaches the country’s peace obligations under the 1990 Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany, according to which no threats are to emanate from German soil. Experts note that the strengthening of Germany’s military power is causing concern among countries bordering Germany, primarily France and Poland. While they once feared German military aggression, the EU allies are now alarmed by the loss of political and economic balance in Europe.

Berlin’s course toward creating a leading military force in Europe and its rejection of previous peace obligations resembles revanchism, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. "The aspirations that have already been officially formulated as German policy - namely, that this will be the leading military force in Europe - all of this strongly resembles revanchism," he noted. The diplomat emphasized that Germany’s current militaristic policy fundamentally alters the very foundations upon which the modern German state was built and unified. "This, of course, carries the risk of the most serious consequences, not only for European security, but also for Germany’s neighbors, who have remained silent thus far," Grushko noted.

On the one hand, Western elites - who are committed to providing comprehensive support to Kiev and inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia - back Germany’s plans to increase military spending. On the other hand, experts note that Germany’s large-scale rearmament program is causing concern among its neighbors. While they once feared German military aggression, they are now alarmed by the loss of political and economic balance in Europe. "This is especially true for Poland and France. Although it might seem that France, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, has no reason to fear the strengthening of Germany’s military capabilities, economic considerations come into play here, namely, competition between defense contractors in Germany and France. Undoubtedly, Paris will be concerned that German competitors will have an edge over their French counterparts," Artyom Sokolov, a senior researcher at the International Studies Institute of MGIMO University, pointed out.

In the long run, the strengthening of Germany’s military power could allow Berlin to determine the fate of Eastern Europe behind Warsaw’s back, as has happened throughout history, Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski told Izvestia. "Germany is implementing projects developed by external actors, particularly the US, specifically that part of the American establishment that benefits from the militarization of certain countries," he stressed.

 

Media: Moscow Exchange Index hits three-year low

On June 22, the Russian stock market saw one of its most significant drops in recent years. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) Index came very close to the 2,300-point level, its lowest point in three years. Many stocks hit multi-year lows, and Gazprom’s share price slipped back to levels not seen since 2008. Investor reactions to the modest cut in the key interest rate took their toll on an already weak market with some time lag.

Several factors have combined to weigh on the stock market, Natalya Malykh, head of equity research at Finam, told Vedomosti. In addition to the worsening geopolitical situation, which includes attacks on Russia’s fuel infrastructure and new sanctions, the outcome of the Bank of Russia’s June 19 meeting also contributed to the negative sentiment, she noted. The regulator’s Board of Directors cut the key rate for the ninth consecutive time, this time by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25%, the expert added.

The situation was further aggravated by the market’s steady decline over the past few months. "The index has been falling for fifteen consecutive weeks, and apathy prevails among investors," Mikhail Tsagareli, a portfolio manager at Pervaya Asset Management, told Kommersant.

The MOEX’s future movement will depend on geopolitics, the trajectory of the key rate, and oil price dynamics, AVI Capital analyst Leonid Chikharev stressed. If the Central Bank signals a more dovish stance at its July 24 meeting and the downward trend accelerates, the index is expected to change direction and rise. However, if the regulator maintains its hawkish rhetoric, the index may continue to fall. The expert predicted that the benchmark will likely remain near the levels seen at the start of the week.

Given that the Moscow Exchange Index has broken through another key level at 2,400 points, the sell-off could continue by inertia over the next week or two down to 2,300 or even 2,250, Malykh predicted. Temporary upward rebounds cannot be ruled out, but there are no reversal signals yet, she pointed out. According to her, the decline is currently being intensified by technical sell-offs triggered by margin calls, which typically mark the final stage of a trend.

From a technical perspective, the market is showing a steady medium-and long-term downtrend, Valentina Savenkova, director of the educational programs department at Veles Capital, noted. The market has moved out of a three-year sideways range of 2,500-3,200 points and is moving just as confidently toward the next range of 2,050-2,210 points, she added. It is highly likely that the decline will continue, but the current downtrend is largely driven by emotional factors and investor sentiment. Therefore, she said, the downward momentum has a good chance of stopping around 2,200 points, reversing course, and returning to its usual sideways trend.

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