MOSCOW, May 14. /TASS/. Russia is determined to keep building up its strategic nuclear forces; the US looks to China for leverage over Iran; and the global economy loses $200 bln in the past year due to political turbulence. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Russia to continue upgrading strategic nuclear forces

Russia will continue to develop missiles that can dodge any air defense systems, President Vladimir Putin said during a visit to the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology. Experts point out that the process of upgrading Russia’s strategic forces has reached its final phase, Izvestia writes.

Today, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology’s research forms the backbone of Russia’s nuclear triad, experts say. The Topol, Topol-M, Yars and Bulava strategic nuclear missiles were all developed here. Given the current geopolitical situation, the development of cutting-edge defense technology is one of Russia’s key priorities, experts stress.

"The process of upgrading Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces has entered its final phase. The acclaimed Topol system, which had been at the core of the mobile group since the mid-1980s, officially went out of service two years ago. It was replaced by next-generation weapons such as the Topol-M and Yars. These are the most advanced ground-launched solid-fuel intercontinental missiles out there today," military expert Dmitry Kornev said.

"Apart from landmark projects like the Bulava and Oreshnik, it’s crucial to mention the recent successful trials of the Sarmat missile. In order to strengthen its positions on the international stage, the country needs to maintain absolute leadership in the field of security and state-of-the-art weapons. Testing of such long-range systems demonstrates that the country is not only capable of responding to threats, but that it already possesses the tools to do so," political scientist Tatyana Kosacheva pointed out.

"Moscow’s key message to Western countries is that the situation should not be pushed to the brink. However, it’s important to emphasize that Russia sees its nuclear and missile capabilities as a tool for preventing large-scale military confrontation rather than for provoking an escalation of violence in a situation where geopolitical tensions are high," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Higher School of Economics, noted.

 

Media: US looks to China for leverage over Iran

US President Donald Trump’s visit to China marks a shift in relations between the two countries, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. Until recently, the tariff war was at the forefront, but now, the parties have returned to traditional high-level talks. Trump will seek to take advantage of the trade agenda to try to get China on his side in the conflict with Iran.

The United States believes that China can influence Iran, Konstantin Blokhin, leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, noted. However, Iran is not heavily dependent on China, maintaining significant room for independent decision-making .

Being that Iran is its strategic partner, China will stay neutral as long as possible, Yekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Policy and Strategic Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, stressed.

Russia and the Ukraine conflict were also touched upon in Beijing. "The US already tried to pressure China to turn away from Russia, but that didn’t work out even in more expedient times, so it would be strange if it happened now," Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. In the current situation, China would gain nothing from supporting Washington’s position on Russia, Iran and other hot conflicts, Alexander Lomanov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, added.

Blokhin notes that Trump still has to re-balance America’s trade relationship with China and slow down its economic development. If China continues on its current course, the US will soon no longer be the world’s leading power. That said, America could use its military superiority to press China to accept their economic rules, the American studies expert concluded.

For the United States, Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will serve as a litmus test to gauge Beijing’s readiness to make concessions on trade and Iran, while for China, it’s a chance to maintain dialogue and restore former economic ties. The US and China remain the world’s two largest economies, which is why even a partial normalization of their relations is important for the entire international system, from trade and investment to commodity prices and market sentiment.

 

RBC: Political turbulence cost global economy $202 billion in lost investment over past year

Political turbulence cost the global economy $202 billion in lost investment in 2025, a higher figure than in the 2008 global financial crisis. In 2026, those losses could almost double due to the war against Iran, RBC reports.

According to Oxford Economics estimates, small open economies that depend greatly on US trade policy were hit the hardest. China, in contrast, proved to be the most resilient, with businesses adapting to the high uncertainty that began in 2018 amid a trade war with the US. As for Russia, uncertainties have been layered on since 2022, because apart from global economic shocks, the country also has to deal with sanction waves, tax reforms and a reshaping of logistics chains.

Economists interviewed by RBC say policy uncertainty itself has become a major drag on business investment. "When the level of capital investment is high, uncertainty can hit as hard as tariffs or taxes, because companies simply put projects on hold," Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov noted.

Antonina Levashenko, head of the laboratory for analysis of the best international practices at the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, cited as an example US President Donald Trump’s social media post about potential tariff hikes, which caused stock markets to jump even before the actual tariffs took effect.

The impact of the Iran war and high oil prices are a separate factor. Formally, it’s a plus for the Russian budget but experts are skeptical about its net effect on investment. Chernov expects a mixed impact as the oil and gas sector will benefit from the current situation, while other industries, including construction, trade and engineering, will face difficulties due to higher logistics costs, equipment imports and inflation risks.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Belgrade works to build closer ties with NATO

Serbia seems to be mulling major policy changes. The first-ever joint military drills with NATO have kicked off in the country. Belgrade maintained a negative attitude towards the North Atlantic Alliance in the wake of the 1999 bombing of Serbia, and while the Balkan nation announced plans to join the European Union, it declared defense neutrality. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the country is moving away from that neutrality, even as NATO membership remains unlikely, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Yakov Smirnov, a researcher with the Department of Contemporary History of Central and Southeastern Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Slavonic Studies, points out that Serbia’s foreign policy has undergone major changes over the last several years. "The reason is that in fact, there are no significant military and political counterweights to NATO in the region," the expert explained.

"Russia’s influence on the Balkans has considerably weakened because its focus is now on other fronts. As for China, its military and political influence is not strong enough yet. Beijing’s presence in the region is largely economic. Meanwhile, the influence of NATO countries has not weakened, only growing stronger," Smirnov elaborated.

Nevertheless, the expert emphasized that it would be wrong to draw conclusions about an emerging shift in Serbia’s stance on NATO or talk about the country’s future accession to the bloc. "I believe it’s unlikely to happen. The Serbs still remember NATO bombardments. However, public perception has somewhat changed. Fifteen years ago, it would have been hard to imagine such joint drills," Smirnov noted. According to him, joint military activities with NATO fit into Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s foreign policy as the country has to make certain compromises due to the lack of a power capable of countering the North Atlantic Alliance in the region. "The president has been compromising for the last decade," the expert concluded.

 

Vedomosti: Global oil supplies drop amid Middle East conflict

Global oil supplies have dropped by 12% in March and April compared to the February level due to the US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran, Vedomosti writes, citing an International Energy Agency report.

With the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, the Gulf nations will continue to reduce oil output in May, which is going to lead to a further decline in supplies, Aricapital Investment Strategist Sergey Suverov and Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko said.

Even if production rises, oil supply on the market will not meet demand before the fourth quarter of the year because of the growing number of idle oil wells, Open Oil Market Director General Sergey Teryoshkin noted.

Dudchenko does not rule out that the market will remain in deficit until the end of the year. Kasatkin Consulting Partner Dmitry Kasatkin believes that restoring oil output to the 2025 level will require a more than 10% rise in investment in 2026-2027.

As oil production has dropped in the Gulf countries, global demand for Russian oil is on the rise, pushing its price higher, Kasatkin pointed out. However, it won’t be possible for Russia to take full advantage of the situation because of restrictions under the OPEC+ deal and the capacity of export facilities, he said.

Teryoshkin expects Russian oil output to remain below the OPEC+ quota for June. Unlike Middle Eastern countries, Russia is unable to increase production quickly due to the technical properties of oil wells. Still, Kasatkin and Suverov agree that the country’s annual oil production and export will grow.

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