MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. Iran’s military response to the US and Israeli attacks came as a surprise, surpassing all expectations; Tehran will soon choose a new supreme leader for the first time in 37 years; and the recent escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel strongly impacts oil and gold prices. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Media: Iran's response derails US and Israeli plans

The sudden strike by the US and Israel against Iran failed to crush the Tehran regime. Not only did Iran manage to recover, but it also began to successfully retaliate. Moreover, pro-Iranian forces in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq have resumed attacks. Experts believe that the US-Israeli coalition's expectation that the Iranian political system would quickly become paralyzed has not materialized. The consequences of the latest military escalation in the region are already apparent in global oil prices and the suspension of air travel.

"It is impossible to overthrow a government with air strikes. It doesn't work that way. I am convinced that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understand this. Most likely, they are counting on protests and unrest resuming in Iran and on something happening against the backdrop of a weakened state," Middle East expert Alexander Kargin told Izvestia.

"Iran has been preparing for conflict, but this is an asymmetrical confrontation where the sides are only equal in form. Iran has a large land army, but in modern warfare, the outcome is decided by aviation and high-precision weapons. In this regard, the technological superiority of Israel and the US is practically undisputed," Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out.

According to Cornell University professor Richard Bensel, neither the US nor Israel is interested in establishing a democratic government in Iran. Their goal is to impose a deal on Iran on their own terms. The expert noted that the bombing might continue until Tehran's ability to respond is completely neutralized, after which power in the country will have to pass into someone's hands.

The US and Israel are now clearly focused on disrupting Iran's military command and control system, weakening its retaliatory capabilities, and suppressing its air defense system, which was already severely weakened during the June 2025 war. It was impossible to restore it in such a short time, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti. In other words, according to the expert, the main task of the US now is to achieve something resembling a decisive victory in a short period of time. In turn, Iran's main task is not to lose and to draw its opponent into a protracted conflict that it does not want, Lyamin stressed.

 

Media: Who will lead Iran after the death of supreme leader Ali Khamenei

Iran will choose a new supreme leader for the first time in 37 years. Key contenders for the post include former head of the judiciary Sadegh Larijani, influential Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and the son of the late Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba. Analysts note that the West expects the country to ultimately be led by a descendant of the last Iranian shah, Reza Pahlavi, who lives in the US and is popular mainly among emigres. For now, the country is led by an interim council that includes the current president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

"Khamenei was undoubtedly a man devoted to the ideas of the Islamic revolution and its religious component. He devoted his entire life to defending Islam according to the Shiite interpretation," Alexander Maryasov, an expert at the Valdai Club and Russia's former ambassador to Iran, told Izvestia. According to him, Khamenei managed to build a multi-tiered system of government combining republican authorities, such as parliament and the president, with theocratic structures, like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Analysts agree that it is virtually impossible to predict when the Assembly of Experts, Iran’s body that appoints a supreme leader, will convene. It is possible that the leader will be elected after hostilities end so he does not become another military target for the US and Israel, Iran and Middle East expert Farhad Ibragimov said. "The new supreme leader will most likely not be the person who has been appointed as acting leader, Alireza Arafi. It will most likely be someone else entirely," he noted.

According to Vedomosti, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, whose political influence has grown sharply in recent times, is expected to play a key role. One of the possible candidates is his brother, former head of the judiciary (2009-2019) Sadegh Larijani, who is considered the most compromise-oriented figure, Ibragimov pointed out. "He has a chance because he and his brother wield significant influence and enjoy support among both the security forces and the ayatollahs," he said.

Another likely contender is Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's second son. However, he is not a high-ranking cleric, which could hinder his appointment as supreme leader. "Mojtaba could formally become the supreme leader, but another factor comes into play here. It would resemble a transfer of power by inheritance, which would be a form of monarchy. Therefore, I do not think he will be able to become the supreme leader," Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Oriental Studies Institute, noted.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri could also lead Iran. He is a member of the Assembly of Experts, where he represents the most conservative wing of the clergy and holds extremely anti-Western views. Another candidate is Hassan, the 50-year-old grandson of the first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini. Finally, the 70-year-old first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, who was once close to Khamenei, could also become a potential leader of the state, CNN noted.

 

Media: Conflict in Middle East boosts gold, oil prices

The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has begun to affect Russian and global financial markets. The trend is clear: the value of shares in oil and gold mining companies is rising, while the price of Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, continued declining, and the price of gold, a safe-haven asset, rose throughout the week.

Events in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a jump in oil prices in the short term, Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Whether oil prices will remain elevated depends on how long the military operation persists. These events could result in a natural gas shortage and changes in its flows in Turkey and Europe, as well as in the global liquefied natural gas market, affecting its cost.

On March 1, OPEC announced that eight countries — Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Oman — would increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April compared to March levels. Russian Financial University expert Igor Yushkov noted that this decision was made by the OPEC+ countries without taking into account the escalation of the conflict. The alliance members will assess the impact of the armed conflict later, which may require an extraordinary meeting of the countries, the analyst pointed out. The OPEC+ agreement will continue to operate as a whole, despite current events, but Iran's participation in the alliance is now in question, Suverov and Yushkov agreed.

At present, it is difficult to predict the situation, as conditions in the Middle East are changing hour by hour. — Iran's export volumes are not as significant for global trade as the security and reliability of transport through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to the Islamic Republic, seven other Persian Gulf countries rely on this transport artery: about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon supplies and around 10% of gas, including 22% of global LNG, transit through it, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the Russian stock analytics center BCS World of Investments, told Izvestia.

Against the backdrop of military uncertainty, demand for gold and other precious metals traditionally rises, as they serve as a store of value, Yekaterina Kosareva, managing partner at VMT Consult, emphasized. Further dynamics will depend on the behavior of the dollar and expectations for interest rates in the US: increased geopolitical tensions could further prop up precious metal prices. In her opinion, gold could cost up to $5,300 per ounce in early March, and silver could reach $98-100 per ounce. "What is happening could be a trigger for revising macro-financial expectations. If the escalation continues, markets will begin to price in a scenario of prolonged instability in the Middle East, which will lead to a steady increase in the risk premium on commodity assets. In this case, oil could consolidate at higher levels, and stock market volatility will persist longer than usual," Kosareva stressed.

 

Izvestia: What weapons US, Israel, and Iran are using in conflict

Massive strikes by the US and Israel on civilian and military targets in Iran provoked a retaliatory strike using drones and ballistic missiles on Tel Aviv and US bases in the Middle East. All sides have deployed their most advanced weapon systems. Israel is striking with aero-ballistic missiles from aircraft, Iran is using hypersonic munitions, and the US is using LUCAS kamikaze drones modeled after Iran's Shahed and Russia's Geran drones. These weapons systems will continue to play a significant role in the conflict, and experts believe that Washington does not intend to launch a ground operation.

The US has used LUCAS kamikaze drones, developed and launched into serial production several months ago, in combat for the first time. Interestingly, these drones are essentially direct copies of the Iranian Shahed and Russian Geran drones and have similar characteristics. "The materials for copying were probably obtained after the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, and possibly also from Ukraine, where Geran drones were actively deployed," military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia.

Iran, in turn, has transitioned to mass production of Zolfaghar and Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles with solid-fuel boosters and guided warheads. While liquid-fueled munitions dominated the retaliatory strikes against Israel in June 2025, hypersonic systems now play a larger role. "It is extremely difficult to intercept them with existing air defense systems. The missiles break through to their targets," Kornev emphasized. "However, their warheads are lighter than those of their liquid-fuel counterparts, forcing Iran to carefully select priority targets such as military bases or infrastructure," the expert noted.

Missiles and drones have become the opposing sides' main strike weapons. However, Iran's capabilities may be limited by the total number of these systems in its arsenal, military expert Vladislav Shurygin stressed. "Iran has identified its main targets as US military bases in the region and Israel," the analyst said.

"The main problem for the Americans is the lack of large-scale air defense systems and missiles at their regional facilities. In combat operations of this intensity, these systems will last for no more than two to three weeks. During this period, the US will attempt to destroy as many Iranian missiles as possible before taking a break. Most likely, this is how long the hot phase of the conflict will last," Shurygin emphasized.

 

Kommersant: Russia may lift oil production by 3% in 2026

Russia's oil production may start rising in 2026, after declining last year due to the easing of OPEC+ restrictions. However, amid the escalating situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ countries have resumed their voluntary production cuts. For now, analysts do not expect a reduction in global supply.

Russia may increase oil and gas condensate production by 3% year-on-year to 10.9 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, the Euler analytical company said in a report. The industry may begin to recover after the 2025 downturn when production fell by 0.8-1% to 9.1 million barrels per day, according to OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Mark Shumilov, an analyst at Renaissance Capital, told Kommersant that investment activity in the oil industry in 2026 will depend largely on the impact of sanctions on exports and the behavior of key buyers: China and India. According to Vortexa analysts, Russian oil's share of Indian imports fell to 20%, or 1.1 million barrels per day in February, compared to 36% in November 2025.

Conversely, Russia's share of Chinese purchases increased from 11% to 18%, or 1.9 million barrels per day. Vortexa pointed out that there are currently no signs of a reduction in Russian oil exports, though high discounts are causing difficulties.

Viktoria Trifonova, a senior analyst at the Yakov and Partners analytical center, noted that the current volume of drilling is preventing production from falling sharply in mature fields. However, she added that the 3.4% annual decline sets conditions for stagnation or production decline as early as 2026-2027. Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov emphasized that the Russian oil industry will be able to compensate for the natural decline in mature fields if drilling volumes remain at last year's level. Nevertheless, he stressed that this is insufficient for achieving sustainable growth.

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