MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. Ukraine seeks to stall talks by staging provocations against Russia; Donald Trump takes control of Venezuela; and more US strikes on Iran may spark a regional war. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Izvestia: Ukraine seeks to delay talks by staging provocations against Russia

Kiev carried out a whole series of terrorist attacks in the past two weeks, including a strike on civilians in the Kherson Region and an attempted attack on one of the Russian president's state residences. The Ukrainians’ goal clearly is to impact the negotiation process by provoking Moscow to violate international law, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large, told Izvestia.

On January 1, the Ukrainian armed forces conducted a deliberate strike on a hotel and a cafe in the Kherson Region, where 29 people were killed. Earlier, on December 29, they attempted a drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s state residence on Lake Valdai. The Ukrainians’ actions did not go unanswered, with Russia once again using its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system, this time to hit sites in the Lvov Region.

Miroshnik believes that Kiev’s main objective is "to impact the negotiation process by trying to provoke Russia to act inappropriately, preferably in an emotional manner, and violate international humanitarian law, which Kiev could portray in a negative light in the US eyes" According to the Russian diplomat, these activities have definitely been agreed on with Kiev’s European partners and accomplices.

"By taking such action, Kiev primarily aims to demonstrate to its Western partners that Ukraine is not the loser as it maintains resistance. So there is no reason to say that Kiev is ready to accept the terms of a peace agreement," political scientist Denis Denisov noted.

It seems that the resumption of direct bilateral talks with Russia either on the political or at least a technical level is not under consideration, Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov pointed out. Had it been so, "we would probably have seen some steps aimed at easing the conflict," he explained.

"As far as I can tell, the Ukrainian leadership expects that it will be able to put pressure on Russia through the United States, that is, the Donald Trump administration, by claiming that the escalation is the result of Russia’s actions, blaming Moscow for continued hostilities, and trying to persuade the US to impose another package of sanctions," Kortunov emphasized.

 

Media: Donald Trump takes control of Venezuela

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that "secures Venezuelan oil revenue for the good of the American and Venezuelan people." He also held a meeting with the executives of the biggest US oil companies, urging them to step up investment in Venezuela’s energy sector, Vedomosti reports.

Trump wants to go down in history as a great president, which is the main objective that needs to be understood, particularly when analyzing the recent US operation against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, said Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. Besides, in the expert’s view, Trump’s sudden foreign policy moves are also directly linked to late paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. "If there are no foreign policy shocks, there may be some domestic ones, which could affect a significant part of the American ruling class," the expert observed.

The region may face greater polarization following Maduro’s arrest by the Americans, Dmitry Rozental, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies, said.

According to him, the countries of the region will in one way or another focus on cooperation with the United States, while bearing in mind the need to diversify their foreign policy. China, Russia, the European Union, and India remain quite active in Latin America. "China’s positions are still very strong, even though Trump has been able to push it back a bit. Beijing is the main trading partner for a number of countries," Rozental pointed out.

Meanwhile, when it comes to Venezuela, the US authorities seem to rely on small enterprises rather than major oil giants. The reason why major players are unwilling to return to the Venezuelan oil market is because the use of the country’s oil entails difficulties, InfoTEK editor-in-chief Alexander Frolov told Izvestia. "Extracting Venezuelan oil requires long and costly exploration efforts, which may even produce no results at all. It also requires certain conditions on the global market, including high oil prices and a quick rise in demand, which would make it possible to supply this high-cost oil to the market without having to fear a drop in prices. There is a lot of doubt that American companies will be able to significantly increase oil production in Venezuela," the expert concluded.

 

Media: Further US strikes on Iran could lead to regional war

The White House is considering the options for potential strikes on Iran. Experts don’t rule out that the US could target both military and nuclear facilities, as well as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s residence. If such a scenario materializes, Iran’s potential retaliation would affect other Middle Eastern countries, including Israel, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, Izvestia notes.

There is currently a 50/50 chance that the US will attack Iran, said Farkhad Ibragimov, political scientist and lecturer with the Economic Department at the Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. "On the one hand, some members of the Trump administration believe Washington should not do that. However, others are confident the time has come," he noted. If Washington opts for military action, Tehran will see Israel and US military and naval bases as "legitimate targets," Iranian Parliament Chairman Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warned. In such a case, Qatar and the UAE are also likely to be affected amid the escalation, for which reason the entire Middle East could plunge into a war, Ibragimov pointed out.

So far, Trump’s statements about strikes on Iran appear to relate to psychological pressure that can be regarded as part of an information campaign against Tehran, American studies expert Malek Dudakov stressed. He believes that the main goal pursued by the US and Israel is to bring a pro-US government to power in Tehran.

Yury Lyamin, senior researcher with the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti that the US operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had increased the likelihood of another round of tensions in the Middle East. Trump appears inclined to take ever more risky foreign policy steps.

Meanwhile, protests in Iran will reinforce the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and increase repression, said Ilya Vaskin, junior researcher with the Center for the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia Studies at the Higher School of Economics. External forces, including US and Israeli intelligence agencies, are fueling more protests, particularly through a media promotion campaign for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Iranian shah overthrown in 1979, Lyamin believes. "Minorities such as the Kurds are active in the protests, but they are interested not in changing the government but in acquiring autonomy or independence, which is contributing to the overall instability in the country," he added.

 

Izvestia: NATO prepares for military standoff with Russia in Arctic

NATO continues its military buildup in the northern latitudes, adding to tensions in the Arctic region, Russian Ambassador to Copenhagen Vladimir Barbin told Izvestia. Simultaneously, the US is increasing pressure on Denmark, with analysts predicting that Washington will be given exclusive rights to use Greenland’s resources and build additional bases on the island.

"The level of military activity and presence in the northern latitudes will remain at least the same in the coming years," Nikita Lipunov, junior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted. The Arctic Council, which will turn 30 in 2026, could help curb the militarization of the region. Denmark took over its chairmanship last year but it seems reluctant to seek meaningful breakthroughs in terms of international cooperation under the Arctic Council’s auspices, the Russian envoy to the country said.

Meanwhile, NATO countries also have internal differences. Washington and Ottawa remain engaged in a territorial dispute over the maritime boundary in the Beaufort Sea, which experts believe is rich in oil. However, this long-standing conflict has given way to a new dispute, stemming from the US claims to the island of Greenland that belongs to Denmark.

"In order to achieve its goals, the Trump team may use diplomatic and economic levers to put pressure on Denmark. Besides, the US could also launch a large-scale information campaign to promote the narrative related to Greenland acquiring autonomy," said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics.

In the expert’s opinion, Denmark will have to make concessions at some point, particularly by granting the US exclusive access to rare earth, oil and gas deposits, as well as expanding Washington’s rights to set up military bases in Greenland. This would allow the United States to ensure long-term access to commodities and strengthen its position in the Western Hemisphere.

 

Kommersant: Russia could replace Venezuela in terms of oil supplies to China

A suspension of Venezuelan oil supplies to China could allow Russia to increase exports to the East Asian nation and cut discounts on the market, said analysts interviewed by Kommersant.

Russian oil companies may boost supplies to independent refineries in China, which are likely to face disruptions in Venezuelan oil purchases, analysts from Kpler and Argus pointed out. A blockade on Venezuelan exports and the seizure of tankers by US forces have brought shipments to China almost to a halt. An increasing number of market participants expect that Venezuelan oil supplies to China will drop following the January 3 arrest of President Nicolas Maduro and US leader Donald Trump’s statements about Washington’s control of the Latin American country, Argus experts noted. Analysts believe that Chinese oil refineries could start facing serious problems with oil supplies in March 2026.

Kpler experts see Nicolas Maduro’s arrest as "a turning point" for Venezuela’s oil industry and the global heavy oil market.

Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that a resumption of Venezuelan oil exports will benefit Russia. According to him, the main commodity flows will be redirected to the US market, which will boost Russia’s competitiveness on Asian markets. In the expert’s view, tanker seizures are unlikely to become a regular practice that could significantly change supply routes or lead to higher insurance risks.

Maxim Shaposhnikov, advisor to the Industrial Code fund manager, expects China to reach an agreement with the US on preserving Venezuelan supplies, but this will require time. According to him, Venezuelan oil output will return to the previous levels quite quickly, but a rise in production will take at least 18 months to two years because infrastructure is worn down and no one is in a hurry to upgrade it. Besides, in Shaposhnikov’s words, China won’t be able to fully restore Venezuelan supplies at the same prices. That said, Chinese refineries will have an interest in Russian oil, which could result in reduced discounts for Russian crude.

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