MOSCOW, November 5. /TASS/. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a near-identical battle for victory as the US prepares for the polls; the EU is expected to maintain its sanctions on Russia even after the end of the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Maia Sandu has claimed victory in a controversial runoff election in Moldova. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines in Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Trump, Harris clash in key swing states amid tight polls

The US presidential race reached its final stage on Monday, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a near-identical battle for victory in several key swing states. While it is impossible to predict with certainty who will prevail by Election Day, one thing is clear: the winner will face fierce opposition from the other side.

Voters will head to the polls on Tuesday following an unprecedented campaign, marked by two unpopular candidates, the incumbent president opting not to seek re-election, and one nominee narrowly surviving assassination attempts. The race is so close that it falls within the statistical margin of error, and the outcome may not be known even by the morning after Election Day. The country could face significant political instability.

While Trump has worked to maintain the loyalty of a small but committed base of Republican voters over the past four years, Harris secured the Democratic nomination due to a unified party establishment. The Democrats lacked both the time and political capital to select an alternative candidate, according to Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, in comments to Vedomosti.

This election campaign stands out not only for its numerous unexpected twists, but because both candidates have nearly equal chances of winning, said Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. She noted that Harris’ more radical rhetoric in the final days of the campaign has hurt her chances of winning over key independent voters. "Efforts to brand Trump a fascist have been a political misstep," Zhuravleva argued, suggesting that the race could end in a tie, with both candidates securing 269 electoral votes each.

The contest is so close that either candidate has a viable path to victory in all seven critical swing states, according to Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. He pointed to the economy, which remains a central issue for most Americans, as one of Trump’s key strengths. On the other hand, Harris’ stance on abortion could help her mobilize the female vote, much like the Democrats did in the 2022 midterm elections, Vasilyev said.

 

Izvestia: EU likely to maintain sanctions on Russia even after Ukraine conflict ends

Even if the Ukraine conflict is resolved, it does not guarantee the lifting of EU sanctions on Russia, Thierry Mariani, a French member of the European Parliament (MEP), told Izvestia "Cancelling the sanctions would make sense, but I’m not sure that will ever happen," he said. "The United States will likely push for the sanctions to remain in place to ensure that, for example, Europe’s economic ties with Russia are not immediately restored," he added.

While the end of the military operation in Ukraine could prompt some Western economies to demand the removal of restrictions, particularly in the energy sector, powerful interests in the West will likely seek to keep them intact. Luxembourg MP Fernand Kartheiser pointed to US shale gas producers as a key group that would benefit from the continuation of sanctions.

Meanwhile, Russia is preparing for the possibility that EU sanctions may persist for much longer, potentially for decades. The 14 sanctions packages imposed since 2022 have laid the groundwork for Brussels to maintain its strategy of countering what it views as an "existential" Russian threat, according to Russia's permanent mission to the European Union.

The EU's sanctions policy on Russia appears to be becoming irreversible. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is set to remain in her position for the next five years, has been a strong advocate for increasing pressure on Russia. In late October, Politico reported that the EU is preparing a 15th sanctions package, which will primarily target Russian LNG exports. EU member states are also expected to consider additional sanctions as early as January, the publication added.

Ivan Timofeyev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, stated that while there is a legal framework for lifting the sanctions, the lack of political will to do so makes it unlikely.

 

Media: Sandu wins controversial election in Moldova

Incumbent Moldovan leader Maia Sandu has been declared the winner of the runoff presidential election, securing 55.33% of the vote, while her rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, received 44.67%. However, the legitimacy of this result is being questioned, as Sandu’s administration reportedly managed to win by mobilizing the Moldovan diaspora in the West and through significant efforts to block votes from her opponents.

The election was unprecedented, with 51.9% of voters within the former Soviet republic, including those in Sandu’s hometown of Falesti, supporting Stoianoglo. Yet, Sandu garnered nearly 83% of the vote abroad. The Moldovan diaspora, numbering around 500,000 in Russia, had access to only two polling stations in Moscow, with just 10,000 ballots available. In contrast, a record 320,000 voters cast their ballots overseas.

The election was marred by numerous reports of voter fraud. Observers from the Promo-LEX association documented 791 incidents, although the Central Election Commission insisted that the runoff was held "in a free atmosphere without any major incidents."

Deputy Federation Council Speaker Konstantin Kosachev condemned the outcome as "blatant manipulation" of the electoral process. He described the election as "shameful," noting that the overseas votes, where organizers allegedly provided exclusive opportunities for Sandu’s supporters while restricting voting options for her opponent, influenced the result. "The organizers deliberately created favorable conditions for one candidate and deprived the other’s supporters of the opportunity to vote," Kosachev said, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

Nicole Bodishteanu, an analyst at the Higher School of Economics (HSE), told Izvestia that the election result reflected the influence of the Moldovan diaspora. She argued that the upcoming parliamentary elections would reveal how the political forces in the country align. "A victory for pro-Western forces in the general election would mark a definitive shift from East to West for the next four years," she said.

 

Izvestia: China slams Western disregard for Sino-Brazilian peace plan on Ukraine

The West has shown no interest whatsoever in the Sino-Brazilian initiative aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict, Friends of Peace, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told Izvestia. A nation cannot safeguard its own security interests at the expense of others, and Beijing, for its part, opposes NATO’s eastward expansion, the Chinese diplomat emphasized.

According to Zhang, Beijing maintains contact with Moscow and other stakeholders regarding Ukraine. "We support dialogue between Russia and Ukraine without any foreign interference. We stay in close contact with Russia as we work towards resolving the conflict and also communicate with other parties to ensure all sides have a voice," the ambassador stated. "I believe that any conflict can only be resolved through negotiations. There is no alternative," he concluded.

Many in the Global South believe that the Friends of Peace initiative warrants more in-depth discussion, as they recognize the complexity of the Ukraine conflict and the need for a balanced and sincere approach, Yang Cheng, professor at Shanghai International Studies University, told Izvestia. "The open nature of the initiative and its concept of promoting peace without favoring any particular party can attract support from multiple countries," he said.

While Washington and Brussels have largely ignored the initiative, Hungary and Slovakia—among other NATO allies—have decided to join the platform. Meanwhile, Vladimir Zelensky’s widely publicized victory plan has yet to receive support from either the White House or the European Council.

The peace initiative led by the West, according to Li Xin, director of the Center for Russia and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, is little more than a "quasi-peace" effort, as its exclusionary nature only fuels the conflict. "It adds fuel to the fire by not being inclusive," Li said in an interview with Izvestia.

 

Vedomosti: Experts see oil prices falling in 2025

The average price of Brent crude is expected to be around $76 per barrel in 2025, marking a 6% decrease from this year’s levels, according to a report by Kept seen by Vedomosti. The forecast is based on a consensus of analysts from over 50 brokerages, agencies, and investment banks.

On November 2, Brent futures were trading at $73 per barrel. In the absence of significant shocks to the global economy or geopolitics later this year or early next year, oil prices could rise to between $75 and $80 per barrel, Oleg Zhirnov, a partner at Kept, told Vedomosti. Based on the 2025 forecast for Brent, Russia’s Urals crude could trade between $60 and $65 per barrel, he added.

Analysts interviewed by Vedomosti had differing opinions on oil prices for 2025. BCS World of Investments predicts that Brent will average around $70 per barrel, with extreme volatility expected throughout next year. Senior analyst Ronald Smith explained that economic challenges in the United States and China could slow global oil demand growth.

Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, expects Brent prices to average below $70 per barrel in 2025. He argued that increasing production in non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina, will put downward pressure on oil prices.

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