MOSCOW, July 15. /TASS/. Trump survives assassination attempt in Pennsylvania; US may base nukes in South Korea; and Ukraine plans offensive pre-US election. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Assassination attempt could rally Republican party, voters around Trump

During a campaign rally in Pennsylvania (on the night of July 14, Moscow time), an attempt was made on the life of former US President Donald Trump. After being shot and having part of his ear torn off, as he was being escorted off stage, the ex-president told his bodyguards to wait a moment and pumped his fist several times at the crowd, eliciting a huge roar. Experts believe that the assassination attempt could rally Republicans and voters around the embattled former president, at least in the short term, Vedomosti writes.

The alleged shooter was shot dead by a sniper from the US Secret Service. According to some eyewitnesses, the shooter was seen on the roof of a building 100-120 meters from where Trump was on stage. According to the FBI, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks was the culprit.

Taking into account the peculiarities of the US Secret Service, there are two possible reasons for what happened, "They couldn't or didn't interfere," Chairman of the Council for Professional Qualifications in the Non-State Security Sphere Dmitry Fonarev explained. "Places where such public events are held are taken under control a few days before. Therefore, it is not clear why the building was not under the supervision of the secret service or the police under its control," the expert said.

"It looks like negligence on the part of the Secret Service," small arms expert Maxim Popenker told the newspaper. Fonarev added that speculation that Trump himself could have staged the assassination attempt is a stretch, Fonarev added.

Trump winning the presidency is now all but assured after the assassination attempt, expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs Alexey Naumov told Vedomosti. The expert believes that what happened will not only increase the ratings of the former president, but also make talk about replacing Biden completely moot.

Naumov also stressed that due to the already high level of socio-political polarization in the United States, the attempt on Trump's life will only deepen the split in American society.

 

Izvestia: US-South Korea pact signals potential nuke deployment in Seoul

The US may soon deploy nuclear weapons to South Korea, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Seoul is also considering starting its own nuclear program, but Washington has reservations about this, so it is steering the conversation toward only using its own assets, the newspaper writes. In a landmark move, the United States and South Korea have agreed on a general nuclear deterrence program amid the threat from North Korea. At the NATO summit in Washington, Joe Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol also announced any nuclear attack from Pyongyang would be met with a swift and devastating response.

On the eve of the face-to-face meeting, the defense ministries of the two countries signed a document on general principles in the field of nuclear deterrence. "The United States reaffirmed that it will continue to pursue a policy of extended nuclear deterrence and is ready to defend South Korea and respond in kind to any ‘attacks’ from North Korea. This statement is a further step towards the possible deployment of US nuclear weapons on the territory of South Korea in the near future," researcher in the field of military-political analysis and research projects and an employee of the Department of the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAS Vasily Klimov told Izvestia.

Official spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova noted that joint nuclear planning between the United States and South Korea is not limited to countering "threats" from North Korea, but is also aimed at strategic containment of Russia and China.

Seoul makes no secret of this - at the North Atlantic Alliance summit, Yoon Suk Yeol criticized the deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea, Izvestia writes. Meanwhile, the United States is opposed to South Korea developing its own nuclear program. "The United States, of course, is against this because it would completely destroy the existing non-proliferation regime, and formal sanctions would have to be imposed on South Korea," Leading Research Fellow at the Korean Studies Center, RAS Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Konstantin Asmolov told the newspaper.

According to Peter Kuznick, professor at the Department of History at American University in Washington D.C., the recent agreement between Biden and Yoon does not represent a deep change in existing policy. It may be intended to allay Seoul's fears that the United States would hesitate to use nuclear weapons in the face of Pyongyang's ability to strike the United States and new commitments from Moscow.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ukraine may try to launch another major offensive before US election

The assassination attempt on Donald Trump may affect the conflict in Ukraine, as it increases his chances of winning the presidential election in the United States this November. The former US president has said that he knows how to stop the fighting, and under him military support for Kiev can be expected to be reduced to a minimum, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the same time, Ukraine is looking to its NATO allies for help, as outlined in a long-term agreement adopted at the alliance's recent summit in Washington. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta they believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to launch another major offensive before the election in the United States.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have prepared eight motorized infantry and mechanized brigades for an offensive, the equivalent of about one army corps. Czech President Petr Pavel told the media that Ukraine will receive 50,000 artillery shells in July and August as part of a "Czech initiative," From September until the end of 2024, 80,000 - 100,000 rounds of ammunition will be sent monthly.

"With such supplies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to use on average 1,500 - 3,000 shells per day at the front," military expert, retired Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "If they are not used immediately and some of the ammunition is used in the direction of the main attack, then the density of artillery fire can be significantly increased and a counter-offensive from Ukrainian troops will happen. Under certain conditions, an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces can be organized in the Donbass or in the direction of Melitopol to try to reach the Sea of Azov. In addition, by the end of the summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expecting the arrival of fourth-generation F-16 fighters, high-precision missiles and new batteries of Patriot and SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile systems," he added.

According to the expert, any potential attempt at an offensive by Ukraine will fail. "The combat weapons that the West is giving Kiev will not be enough to conduct a large-scale offensive. In the coming months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive only six F-16, and by the end of the year - around 20. With these aircraft, Kiev will not be able to gain air supremacy and turn the tide. Even experts in the West agree," Netkachev added.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia becomes fourth-largest LNG exporter in the world in 2023

Russia ranked fourth in the world in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2023, with its deliveries abroad totaling 31.4 mln tons, according to an annual report from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. Russia’s exports remained virtually equal to 2022, when the country supplied 32.1 mln tons to the world market. Meanwhile, according to experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Russia may fall further behind market leaders the United States and Qatar before 2025.

Russia’s export volume is surpassed only by Qatar, which exported 78.2 mln tons, Australia (79.6 mln tons), and the US (84.5 mln tons). Moreover, while LNG from Qatar and Australia have remained almost unchanged since 2022, the United States increased shipments by 9 mln tons, moving from third to first place.

Taking into account the sanctions against its gas liquefaction projects; in order to keep up with the leaders, Russia would have to quickly solve the problem of LNG supplies from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant, the newspaper writes. The first production line has already been launched here (6.6 mln tons of LNG per year), but there are no Arctic-class gas carriers capable of delivering the goods to customers due to the project being included in the sanctions list of the US Treasury Department. Similar sanctions were imposed only on the planned LNG project in Murmansk.

According to Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach, how Russia handles the sanctions will go a long way toward determining where it stands in the global LNG market.

According to Ivan Timonin, Project Manager at Implementa, Russia will be able to maintain its fourth place in the ranking of LNG exporters even without the start of deliveries from the Arctic LNG-2 plant. At the same time, the gap between Russia and the market leaders - the United States and Qatar - may increase before 2025, the expert believes.

 

Izvestia: Russia sees rise in businesses relocating to country

The number of companies registered in Russia’s special administrative regions (SARs) of Russky Island in the Primorsky Territory and Oktyabrsky Island in the Kaliningrad Region increased by almost a third in the first half of 2024 to 428, Izvestia reported with reference to the Ministry of Economic Development. This is 10% more than in the same period last year and almost three times what it was in 2022. Such figures indicate that foreign companies continue to actively move to the Russian jurisdiction, the ministry said.

The total amount of investments of SAR participants in the Russian economy for 2019-2023, according to reports from management companies, amounted to 85 bln rubles ($973.26 mln), the Ministry of Economic Development clarified. SARs allow foreign companies with Russian roots to move to the Russian jurisdiction and continue to operate in Russia without fear of sanctions, member of Business Russia association Elena Gladysheva told the newspaper.

The main goal of organizing such zones is to create an alternative to foreign offshore zones for Russian businesses, which should ensure the return of companies to Russia, Opora Russia expert Sergey Elin explained.

Relocation requests are made by foreign legal entities with Russian roots that no longer see advantages for themselves in foreign jurisdictions, Vice President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Ilya Zubkov noted.

"Moving to a friendly jurisdiction should simplify a number of processes, including the payment of dividends. Dividends are an important part of shares, and the resumption of payments increases the capitalization of companies," Head of the equity analysis department at Finam Financial Group Natalya Malykh told Izvestia.

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