MOSCOW, May 4. /TASS/. Drones downed over the Kremlin; new EU sanctions loom; and Iran reinforces traditional ties with Syria. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Two drones shot down over Kremlin in early morning hours of May 3

On May 3, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced a ban on launching unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) within city limits, with the exception of those used for "government purposes" in order to prevent "the unauthorized use of such UAVs, which could hinder the work of law enforcement agencies." Shortly thereafter, Russian media outlets, citing sources, reported that St. Petersburg city authorities instituted a similar drone ban, and that fully 40 regions of Russia, including the two largest cities, had taken similar action to close the skies to drones.

Moscow and St. Petersburg took such measures soon after the announcement that, overnight on May 3, two Ukrainian drones had exploded over the Senate building within the Kremlin complex, which serves as the primary residence of the president of Russia.

On his Telegram channel, Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin branded the incident as an attempted "terrorist attack on the president" and urged that the Ukrainian authorities be designated as a terrorist organization. He further vowed to demand "that weapons be deployed that are capable of stopping and eliminating" the Kiev regime.

"By all appearances, the drone was hard to detect; it may have been made of special materials and featured few reflecting surfaces, thus making it difficult to detect while in the air. The UAV may have been launched by catapult and flown several hundred kilometers before reaching the Kremlin," the Vedomosti daily newspaper’s source at a company in the unmanned aviation industry said.

Nikolay Ryashin, an expert in the field of autonomous UAVs, thinks that the drone incident will trigger a tightening of regulations in this industry sector. For instance, closing the sky to civilian drones will prevent those companies without government contracts from operating within the city limits.

 

Vedomosti: Experts weigh in on potential EU ban on transit of goods through Russia

The European Union is proposing to institute a ban on the transit of "numerous technologies and other goods" via Russia in its latest, 11th package of sanctions, and potentially other measures. This will be on the agenda at the G7 summit on May 19 in Hiroshima, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

Experts concur that such a ban on the transit of goods would be an unprecedented move in sanctions practice. However, if it is implemented or even announced, there would be no legal basis for such a prohibition in terms of European sanctions law, noted Ivan Timofeyev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council.

Major technical difficulties could also arise in the implementation of such a ban, Timofeyev contended. A list already exists of those products that the EU long ago restricted for import and transit purposes, but controlling the entire volume of transit, or the bulk of it, would not be feasible under current circumstances, said Pavel Ivankin, president of the Transportation and Infrastructure National Research Center.

In terms of legal mechanisms, the EU would be able to effectively monitor only their own businesses, which would definitely comply with the ban, noted Sergey Glandin, a partner at the NSP law firm and expert on international law. However, it would be difficult for the EU authorities to enforce compliance by third-country freight forwarders, including logistics operators from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states, such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. "As a last resort, they may activate secondary sanctions mechanisms, which to date have never actually been applied," he pointed out.

 

Media: Tehran seeks to deepen Damascus links amid Syrian overtures to fellow Arab states

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Syria on Wednesday for the first visit of its kind over the past 13 years. Negotiations between the sides will emphasize economic cooperation. The Iranian president is making it clear that, despite Damascus’ recent rapprochement with other Arab countries, Syrian-Iranian ties remain strong. The visit is being cautiously observed by Israel, where Iran’s presence in Syria has long been a matter for concern.

Iran has been and remains Syria’s main ally, so it is important for Tehran to reinforce its relations with Damascus amid Syrian President Bashar Assad’s recent renewal of contacts with other Arab states, said Artyom Adrianov of the Institute of International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). Raisi will not permit any diminishment of Tehran’s influence over Syria while Damascus conducts a charm offensive aimed at renewing its ties with previously unfriendly Arab countries. "That said, it is too early to speak of Syria’s full independence from Iran; the Iranian influence in Damascus is still strong and Tehran won’t be pushed away from the settlement process around Syria," the expert concluded.

A tug-of-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for influence in Damascus is underway, said Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies. The Saudis want to bring Syria closer by returning it to membership in the League of Arab States (LAS), which would bolster the influence of other Persian Gulf monarchies on Syria as well. "At the same time, Iran is viewing Syria as its strategic territory through which Tehran may boost ties with Lebanon and counteract Israel. Additionally, it is precisely thanks to Iranian support that Assad remained president and Tehran will definitely demand its due," the expert explained, adding that it is important for Assad to return to the LAS as a means of lending greater legitimacy to his rule.

 

Kommersant: European gas prices plummet

Gas prices in Europe dropped to the level of July 2021 due to sustainably high LNG offers from the US, warm weather and strong winds, which increase power generation at wind power plants. June futures at the Dutch TTF hub plummeted to $423 per 1,000 cubic meters. Given all of these factors, together with low domestic gas demand in the EU, thus far analysts do not see anything triggering a price hike, while acknowledging that the threat remains of increased LNG demand in China and a complete cessation of Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe.

"Given low domestic demand, record-high supplies in underground storage facilities and high LNG availability, one shouldn’t expect a swift return to price growth," said Sergey Kondratyev of the Institute of Energy and Finance Foundation.

"With further demand reductions and new sources of natural gas supply, Europe may be able to maintain the balance over the next several years," analysts at McKinsey & Company noted in a report.

 

Kommersant: Flow of tourists visiting Russia on the rebound

Given the global trend toward the gradual post-pandemic recovery of international tourism, the flow of foreign travelers to Russia in 1Q 2023 increased by 17% year on year. Nevertheless, tourist flows to Russia still remain appreciably lower than before the pandemic. Tourists from Turkey, China, Iran and India expressed an interest in visiting Russia. The number of trips abroad made by Russians themselves is recovering much faster, even in spite of existing restrictions.

Sergey Romashkin, director general of Delfin, a tour operator, said that the same dynamics will remain in the coming summer season, with the incoming flow of tourists recovering only up to 10-15% of the pre-crisis volume. "Russia is part of the general trend within international tourism toward a gradual recovery after the pandemic, but the activity of travelers is being significantly restrained by the geopolitical background, the lack of decisions on visa-free group exchanges, and difficulties with cards issued by international payment systems working" in Russia, he explained.

Dmitry Gorin, vice president of the Russian Travel Industry Union, hopes that the outgoing tourist flow this year will increase by 22-24% year on year. "Yet, it is necessary to understand that last year was highly uneven: We saw a relatively good first quarter, a practically zero-sum second quarter, and the subsequent recovery of the outgoing tourist flow," he noted.

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