MOSCOW, April 20. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Venezuela and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to combating the West’s imposition of illegitimate, unilateral sanctions; Western politicians are growing skeptical of the prospects for Ukraine's much vaunted counteroffensive; and the European Commission is offering its disgruntled Eastern European members incentives to ease their import bans on Ukrainian grain. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

 

Vedomosti: Lavrov counsels Venezuela to cooperate with Russia and not trust the West

During his tour of Latin America, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Venezuela and underscored Moscow's commitment to combating the illegitimate, unilateral sanctions that the Latin American country has also been subjected to. Russia, according to the minister, is ready to work with Venezuela to minimize its economic dependence on the "whims and geopolitical games" of Western countries. The Russian side, according to Lavrov, is extremely pessimistic about the potential for cooperation with the US to lift sanctions, writes Vedomosti.

The Venezuelan authorities have no choice but to align either with Russia or with the United States, according to Viktor Kheyfets, professor of the theory and history of international relations at St. Petersburg State University. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro wishes to repair relations with the United States, but he will not be able to do so, not least because such a shift would be misinterpreted by his own inner circle. Furthermore, the expert told the newspaper, Maduro requires not just an easing of sanctions, but also personal security guarantees for himself and the military leadership, which the US cannot and will not give.

According to Kheyfets, Maduro's power is largely built on maintaining a balancing act among the United States, Russia and China. If Maduro were to allow one of these powers to completely dominate Venezuela, his stature would be diminished in the eyes of global players.

According to Nikolay Kalashnikov, assistant to the director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Latin America, Maduro is pursuing a fairly sensible policy line. The analyst said that Maduro will respond positively to US olive branches aimed at strengthening relations while simultaneously steering clear of any rupture in Caracas’ relations with Moscow.

 

Kommersant: Puffed up expectations of Ukrainian counteroffensive making West and Kiev itself nervous

Western political figures and military experts are increasingly skeptical about the much vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has been expected to begin in the spring of 2023. The intense focus over recent months on the anticipated ramp-up in hostilities by Kiev’s forces has been replaced by attempts to decouple the future of the entire conflict from the success of the upcoming battlefield engagements. Statements about the "upcoming decisive weeks" alternate with predictions about the conflict’s ultimate transition into a protracted phase, Kommersant writes.

First, according to sources, the US is quite pessimistic about Kiev's prospects for making territorial gains during the projected counteroffensive. Second, as Bloomberg recently reported, Ukraine's allies are skeptical that the armed forces of Ukraine will be able to achieve a decisive breakthrough by the end of 2023. According to the reports, intense fighting will last until 2024, and the Ukrainian army's advance in the south may be limited to 30 km. Meanwhile, Pentagon leaks showed that the Ukrainian armed forces are suffering from a severe shortage of Soviet-type ammunition for their air defense systems.

The idea of peace talks has resurfaced against the backdrop of Western concerns about the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kommersant writes. French President Emmanuel Macron appears to be launching a new peacekeeping initiative. According to Bloomberg, Macron tasked his foreign policy advisor, Emmanuel Bonn, with starting a discussion with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi on a potential mechanism for future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, perhaps as early as the summer of 2023.

Latin American peace initiatives have also been put forward; Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who visited China late last week, recommended creating a G20-style forum for conducting negotiations on the Ukraine conflict.

 

Vedomosti: EC offers Eastern Europe incentives to ease import bans on Ukrainian grain

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission (EC), informed the governments of Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic that Brussels is preparing a new support package of 100 mln euro from EU funds for farmers in these countries in exchange for the lifting by their governments of recent import bans on Ukrainian agricultural products. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, Brussels is trying to retain control over its disgruntled Eastern European member states.

Early in April, 56.3 mln euro was already set aside for farmers impaired by Ukrainian imports. According to Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, a settlement between Brussels and the disgruntled countries is already in the works. According to him, the EC gave Eastern European farmers a measly handout of 156.3 mln euro, which does not compensate for the damage already done. "The main result will most likely be the approval of a pan-European regulation on the duty-free transit of goods from Ukraine, as well as the extension of the usual EU norms and quotas for those goods that get stuck. Some import prohibitions on Ukrainian products, which Brussels is currently proposing and which are being implemented by a number of countries, will most likely be temporary and thus will not be extended."

The EC is trying to resolve the flap over Ukrainian grain in order to strengthen its political position vis-a-vis Eastern Europe in the decision-making process on key economic and trade issues, Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Vedomosti. "This way Brussels is trying to seize the initiative from Poland, Hungary, and other countries. This is related to the European bureaucracy's desire to maintain control over Eastern Europe, where individual governments are attempting and have already attempted - in legal matters, such as in the case of Warsaw and Budapest - to bolster their autonomy through [instigating] conflicts, which is causing much anxiety for the EU leadership," Sokolov notes.

 

Izvestia: US closely following Turkey’s upcoming pivotal elections

Turkey's elections are just over a month away. The candidates’ rhetoric is beginning to harden in the face of a heated political battle and an unpleasant economic scenario, writes Izvestia. At the same time, foreign policy is getting its own spotlight with the United States closely monitoring the political situation in the region.

The Turkish election campaign is taking place amid important changes in the Middle East. On April 13, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced talks with Saudi Arabia and a long-awaited meeting with the desert kingdom's chief diplomat. Ankara has also been pursuing a productive policy of reconciliation with Syria, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt in recent years, Izvestia writes.

The US press has taken note of the regionalization of Middle Eastern politics, as well as Turkey's role and ambitions in this process. In a recent article, Politico termed Ankara "a headache" for NATO. "Turkey is still a key partner of the United States in the region. Therefore, the White House will try to continue the dialogue in one format or another. In particular, for this, the Biden administration lifted restrictions on the modernization of the F-16, which will be delivered to Ankara," Grigory Lukyanov, senior lecturer in the department of the Middle East at the Oriental Faculty of the State Academic University for the Humanities, told Izvestia.

According to Vladimir Avatkov, chairman of the department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Turkey, unlike Europe, exhibits disobedience, discontent, and rebellious behavior, and is tired of rules and double standards. "Therefore, the elections are crucial: The set of tools for future interaction with Turkey depends on the results. Either the country can be tamed relatively peacefully through soft power, or it will have to be bent into shape by the use of force and instigating chaos inside and out. This is what the Americans believe, but it is far from certain that they will be able to handle such a hard-nut-to-crack as Turkey," he said.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU joins battle for global semiconductor market

The European Parliament will vote on the so-called European Chips Act in the coming weeks. It has been under discussion since 2021, and now all disagreements on the text seem to have been resolved. If the bill is enacted, in eight years the EU will be among the world leaders in semiconductor production, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. At the very least, Europe will reduce its dependence on chips from the United States, Taiwan and South Korea, which will have an impact on both the economy and foreign policy.

It may be difficult to force out competitors in Europe since they are also taking proactive measures. South Korea and Japan have approved regulations governing semiconductor development and are preparing to pass additional rules. Seoul, for example, intends to invest $422 billion in the semiconductor industry over the next 20 years. Nonetheless, the EU can achieve its 20% global production target by 2030, leader of the League of Independent IT Experts Sergey Karelov told the newspaper. "There is enough money, and there is also a manufacturing base. What isn't available for production, they'll buy from the US, since Europe isn't under sanctions," he said.

"However, there is another issue - where do you get raw materials to make these chips? We are already dealing with the issue of a new economic carve-up of the third world," Alexander Tevdoi-Burmuli, associate professor in the department of integration processes at MGIMO University, said. In an interview with the newspaper, the expert stated that China controls the bulk of the resources used in the production of semiconductors and batteries. Thus, the raw material issue may prove to be the most onerous one for European business. "Meanwhile, weapons manufacturers in Germany, France and Italy have big orders. The shift to locally made chips may be critical for them. This will intensify the stakes in the battle for control over resources," the expert believes.

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