Izvestia: What role can Greece play in Ukraine not joining NATO

Ukraine potentially joining NATO is a sensitive subject for Russia’s security, President Vladimir Putin said during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on December 8. According to the Russian leader, this is one of the key aspects of ensuring the country’s security for the mid-term outlook and even strategic perspective.

Despite Greece’s membership in NATO and the EU with which Russia has been having a rather complex dialogue lately, Moscow and Athens have been traditionally linked by rather friendly relations. The powerful historical bonds between Greeks and Russians as well as the firm position of the Orthodox Church in both countries create a fertile ground for talks.

Experts are skeptical on Russia receiving any legal guarantees on the part of NATO concerning Ukraine not joining the alliance considering that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the organization has had five waves of expansion, which includes bringing aboard post-Soviet republics, namely, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. According to an expert on the US, Alexander Domrin, professor at the law department at the Higher School of Economics, the US continues to perceive the promises given to Mikhail Gorbachev regarding NATO’s expansion as some myth used by the Russian side. "Although there are numerous declassified documents that confirm: Western politicians were saying that NATO wouldn’t approach the USSR’s borders by an inch. Another matter is that it wasn’t recorded in writing.

"Yet if NATO has not recorded this in writing in over 30 years, why should they do it now?" the expert pondered. He believes it is unlikely that the alliance will recognize that its policy over such a long period was erroneous and that the alliance’s expansion should be stopped following the Russia-US summit.

In order to provide any legal guarantees, the alliance will have to change its charter and cancel the so-called open-doors principle, Pavel Sharikov of the Institute for USA and Canada Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences told Izvestia. President of the American University in Moscow Edward Lozansky concurs, saying that Moscow can rather count on a number of European countries, with Greece, France and Germany among them, blocking Ukraine’s, as well as Georgia’s membership in order not to provoke Russia.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Biden to call Zelensky after consulting with European leaders

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden will tell his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky about the outcome of his talks with Vladimir Putin. Until then, Kiev decided not to officially comment on the talks. Zelensky’s spokesperson Sergey Nikiforov said on Wednesday that Kiev fully trusts its partners. The Ukrainian president’s team brushed off the notion that Biden contacting his counterpart a day and a half after the summit with Putin, which directly focused on Ukraine, was anything extraordinary. First Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Alexander Korniyenko noted that the presidents know better when to discuss the situation.

However, some experts express sharp criticism. Dmitry Korneychuk, head of the KDA consulting center, noted that in the conversation between Biden and Putin "the issue of Crimea was taken off the table. So, who’s interested in such trivia when the US saved Ukraine from ‘Putin’s attack’? Under the guise of ‘saving Ukraine’ Biden is not imposing sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and has okayed its launch. Meanwhile, Putin is helping Biden with a new nuclear deal on Iran." According to the expert, it has been clear for a while that Ukraine will never join NATO. "Moreover, it was precisely American diplomacy that did everything in order for the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO not to be even raised since 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass," he added.

Political analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Vladimir Gorbach wrote on his blog that there is no reason to believe that the West is betraying Ukraine. He noted that "immediately after the videoconference between the presidents (Biden and Putin), the US Senate approved the 2022 defense budget which includes $300 mln for Ukraine, $150 mln for the Baltic countries and $4 bln for the European Deterrence Initiative." As for the talks, each side stated its position which was reflected in the official reports on the content of the talks, the expert said.

Vladimir Fesenko, who heads the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, thinks that it’s too early to draw conclusions about the Russian-US talks. "Much like in June, the very existence of the negotiations is essential. This means that the sides still want to reach an agreement. Although for the US and Russia striking an agreement on something so specific as Ukraine, particularly now, is extremely difficult if at all possible. It is very likely that, just like in Geneva, we are talking about preserving the current state of affairs around Ukraine, a fragile balance where both sides do not undertake any actions capable of disturbing this balance," the expert said.

 

Izvestia: What should Russia expect from Germany’s new government

On December 8, Olaf Scholz was elected Germany’s new chancellor by winning the support of 395 out of 736 lawmakers of the Bundestag. According to experts, he will continue the pragmatic policy of his predecessor Angela Merkel. According to their forecasts, global changes in Moscow-Berlin ties, which are already rather complicated, shouldn’t be anticipated, yet Scholz will continue to maintain dialogue despite differences.

Leading Researcher at the German Studies Center of the Institute of European Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Kamkin told Izvestia: "Olaf Scholz adheres to a special arrangement of transatlantic relations, in this sense, the continuity of Merkel’s course should be expected. Scholz will try to correspond to the principle of multivectorness in foreign policy, which includes the Eastern track. That is, to maintain a balance in relations, both with Kiev and Moscow." According to the expert, most likely, there will be no changes in the Normandy format. Germany, in general, is oriented towards a certain support for the regime in Kiev with regular calls to return to the negotiating table.

German political analyst Alexander Rahr noted that Moscow and Berlin will have a difficult conversation. "Nevertheless, pragmatic diplomacy will continue. Scholz generally acts with restraint and will strive to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to find common points. It is not clear yet how much the Greens will hinder him," the expert stressed. In a conversation with Izvestia, the commentator emphasized that Germany wouldn’t stop Nord Stream 2 on its own, while the Greens may merely stall its launch.

On December 8, Vladimir Putin sent Olaf Scholz a congratulatory telegram noting that he was hoping for the establishment of constructive dialogue and joint work on pressing bilateral and international matters. According to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russia hopes that the new chancellor will continue the policy of his predecessor, including the issue of Nord Stream 2.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Gas price hike in EU ceases incentivizing launch of Nord Stream 2

Market gas prices over $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters continue to haunt Europeans, but has ceased to be an incentive to accelerate the launch of Nord Stream 2. It is already clear that the Russian pipeline won’t begin to function before spring. Gazprom tried to reap maximum benefits from the situation in the fall yet the certification process for the project was suspended.

Prices are already unbearable for those who actually pay for gas and discontent in the industry is mounting, as well as pressure on politicians, Deputy Director General of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund Alexei Grivach says. Nord Stream 2 can still be launched this winter if the certification in Germany ends in January, or if the winter is extremely cold, in the second part of the heating season there is a danger of a real deficit of gas in Europe against the background of empty storage facilities and the outflow of LNG to Asia, the expert pointed out. In his opinion, the ball is in Germany’s and Europe’s court, yet it is clear how actively the US is trying to compel the Germans to shoulder the responsibility of freezing the project.

Deputy Head of the Economy of the Fuel and Energy Complex Sectors of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Sergey Kolobanov concurs, noting that Europe realizes perfectly well that the current capabilities of gas pipes from Russia are quite sufficient to satisfy the increased demand for gas and do not consider the launch of Nord Stream 2 the only salvation from the possible deficit. So, one shouldn’t expect the problem to be resolved swiftly even if business and the public want the gas prices to decrease.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Sudan’s interest in Russian naval base rising, as US frowns on Khartoum

A new round of talks between Russian and Sudanese military representatives is expected on implementing a bilateral agreement on the creation of a Russian naval base in the Red Sea. The October 25 coup made the US administration distance itself from Sudan. Evidently, this convinced Khartoum to diversify its external relations.

Representatives of Russia’s Defense Ministry are supposed to discuss with the Sudanese the issue of improving bilateral relations and the implementation of the agreement on the base’s creation, according to Sudan’s Dabanga news. Several days earlier, the Sudanese Suna news agency reported that Sudan’s top general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan met with Russia’s ambassador Vladimir Zheltov stressing the readiness of his country to maintain healthy relations with all friendly players.

According to Kirill Semyonov, an expert from the Russian International Affairs Council, despite the concessions made to the civilian wing of the government, the military part of Sudan’s leadership still feels the threat of Western sanctions and possible outside interference, therefore it is forced to seek new sources of support, such as Russia or China. "The project of a Russian military base is now timelier than ever: it can be used as a factor to prevent any hypothetical external interference," the analyst noted. According to him, the worsening of relations between Khartoum and Washington may open additional prospects for the work of Russian non-governmental players in Sudan.

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