Izvestia: Kabul airport attack may impact efforts to resolve Afghan crisis

Multiple explosions rocked Kabul’s airport, claiming dozens of lives and leaving over 100 people wounded, and among the victims are US troops and members of the Taliban (outlawed in Russia). According to media reports, the Islamic State terror group (outlawed in Russia) took responsibility for the bombings. This is the first terrorist attack that occurred in Afghanistan after the change of government. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the Islamic State will try to take advantage of the chaos in Kabul to seize part of the country’s territory. However, according to analysts, it won’t affect the foreign troop withdrawal and evacuations from Afghanistan, which will be completed by August 31.

"There were concerns over the past few days that something might happen at the airport. There are all the conditions for terrorist attacks and provocations because a lot of people are gathered at the airport and around it," military expert Yuri Lyamin pointed out. "It was no secret that IS cells were active in Kabul, it was them that carried out the deadliest terrorist attacks there in recent years. The previous authorities failed to do anything about them. The new ones are waging a war to the death against them but they were unable to detect those groups right after taking control of the city," the expert added. According to him, terrorists have access to weapons and explosives and given their desire to conduct the deadliest attacks possible, they could have been expected to do something like this.

Center for Eurasian Studies Director at Moscow State Institute of International Relations Ivan Safranchuk says that any kind of disorder in Kabul will harm the Taliban’s reputation. The reason is that so far, the countries willing to cooperate with the new Afghan authorities are mostly driven by the fact that the Taliban managed to establish some sort of order in the country. According to the expert, local IS cells could indeed have had a hand in the Kabul explosions because they would like the international community to turn away from the Taliban. In that case, the country will plunge into chaos and terrorist networks will have a chance to take some areas under control or offer cooperation with the Kabul authorities, the political analyst explained.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Iran’s ultra conservative turn won’t affect ties with Russia

Iran’s new government started its work on August 26. As expected, ministerial portfolios were divided between members of the conservative wing of the country’s political elite. Experts now expect to see a gradual shift from the policy of former President Hassan Rouhani, a reformer, to a harder line, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

According to Nikita Smagin, an Iran-based expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, the cabinet’s makeup is quite in line with new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s reputation as a conservative. "This is a return of the conservative forces," the analyst explained. "Out of the 19 candidates nominated to the government, nine were somehow part of the cabinet under ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is what you may call a hawkish team, but more in relation to domestic policy. Another thing to note is that Mohsen Rezaei has been appointed as vice president," Smagin said, adding that Rezaei, a conservative, was Raisi’s main rival in the recent election. "Raisi seeks to unite conservative forces around himself," the expert added.

As for the foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian "is a conservative but a moderate one, who has experience in diplomacy," Smagin specified. "What is important is that he has repeatedly made positive public statements about Russia and its role in the region," he added.

The analyst does not expect a drastic reshuffle at the Iranian Foreign Ministry that will lead to major changes. "There will probably be a gradual shift to a conservative line," Smagin noted.

As far as Russia is concerned, President Raisi’s government will hardly bring serious changes to relations between the two countries. "The approach of Iran’s ruling elite is similar to the one of the previous administration: Russia is an irreplaceable partner in a number of fields. It’s not an ally but an important partner with whom cooperation should definitely continue," the expert emphasized.

 

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: EU might be shooting itself in the foot by restricting Russian gas supplies

A German court’s decision to dismiss a bid to exempt the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from the European Union's Gas Directive may turn out to be fatal for Europe. Although people in Europe are unlikely to freeze to death, gas prices may hit new highs, particularly if the weather is windless and very cold next winter, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.

The EU’s amended Gas Directive bans owners from using more than 50% of a pipeline’s capacity. Ideally, the goal is to provide other suppliers with access to pipelines, but as far as Nord Stream 2 goes, there are no other suppliers but Russia.

As soon as the news broke that the pipeline’s capacity will be placed under limitations, Europe’s spot gas prices jumped from $500 to $560 per 1,000 cubic meters. Nord Stream 2 is expected to be launched this fall but now, it will only be possible to transport 27.5 bln cubic meters of gas through the pipeline instead of the proposed 55 bln cubic meters. This will hardly suit European consumers and Russia’s gas giant Gazprom.

Nord Stream 2 AG (the pipeline construction’s operator) is currently going through certification procedures as an independent operator, which will allow Gazprom to use 100% of the pipeline’s capacity. However, the process may take up to ten months, Research Director at Vygon Consulting Maria Belova explained. If commercial gas supplies fail to kick off before the end of the year and Gazprom refuses to book additional capacity of gas transit via Ukraine, it will drive Europe’s gas prices further up, the expert forecasted.

According to Executive Director of the Capital Market Department at Univer Capital Artem Tuzov, restrictions on gas supplies through Nord Stream 2 will most likely fade away naturally because of rising gas prices rather than as a result of litigation among lawyers.

 

Vedomosti: Russia’s parliamentary parties focus on socio-economic agenda

The election program of the United Russia party, which was published informally on August 24, is expected to be officially released on August 27. After studying the election promises of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) and the A Just Russia party, Vedomosti has come to the conclusion that all of them pledge to ensure people’s wellbeing and protect the country’s borders.

There is little demand for party programs among voters, the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center noted. As many as 13% of those surveyed said they carefully read through the election programs, whereas 57% have a rough idea of them and 29% aren’t interested in them at all. Few people look into party programs so they actually don’t influence voter choice, leading analyst at the Public Opinion Foundation Grigory Kertman pointed out. "However, they are part of election campaigns that do influence voters, so they contribute to the image of parties," he emphasized.

The parties have come up with similar initiatives in the field of healthcare and education, which is what a large part of their programs is dedicated to because the electorate expects the authorities to guarantee essential benefits for them, President of Center for Political Technologies Boris Makarenko noted.

The supporters of all parliamentary parties, apart from those of the Communist Party, have little interest in domestic policy, political analyst Alexei Makarkin said. For instance, Untied Russia’s voters are more concerned about the social and economic part of its program. The voters of the A Just Russia party and the LDPR feel the same way though they are more inclined to criticize things.

All parliamentary parties have the same approach to foreign policy. The Communist party points to the growing number of NATO bases around Russia and the increasing pressure on the country, while the Liberal Democratic Party suggests bringing all Soviet territories back "through referendums." The CPRF and A Just Russia call for recognizing the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. That said, United Russia highlights the need to ensure the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of countries. It also seeks to improve relations with Western countries while protecting national interests "in a tough manner." As for foreign policy, there is a consensus among the parties, Makarkin stressed.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Ruble rate may change after Russia’s September parliamentary election

Two factors may influence the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in the near future, including the possibility of the national Central Bank moving to raise the key interest rate at its Board of Directors meeting on September 10, and the US Federal Reserve’s plans to start wrapping up monetary support programs. However, the ruble is unlikely to weaken until Russia’s September parliamentary election, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

"In theory, a rise in the key rate should strengthen the ruble because ruble investments become more attractive," said Assets Manager at BCS World Investment Andrei Rusetsky.

"The odds are high that the Central Bank will raise the key interest rate, which will have a positive impact on the ruble. However, it will prevent it from weakening rather than significantly strengthen the currency," Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Alexander Krasilnikov insists.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s move to reduce the stimulus program will gradually strengthen the dollar based on a decline in inflationary expectations in the United States. All other things being equal, it will lead to the weakening of the ruble against the dollar, Krasilnikov noted. More coronavirus outbreaks across the world, new sanctions against Russia and rising inflationary expectations may also negatively affect the ruble. At the same time, the expert does not see a direct link between the upcoming election and the ruble exchange rate.

"Judging by the ruble’s smooth movement in recent months, the market has indeed stabilized ahead of the election," Senior Analyst at Forex Optimum Alexander Rozman noted. According to him, a decline in the oil supply shortages on the global market and the Federal Reserve’s reduction of the stimulus are the two main factors that will impact the ruble until the end of the year.

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