Media: Navalny’s suspected poisoning threatens relations between Moscow and the West

The alleged poisoning of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who is currently undergoing treatment at the Charite hospital in Berlin, threatens to undermine the relations between Russia and the West. Berlin, Paris and Brussels have already called on Moscow to investigate the suspected assassination attempt, although an official statement by Berlin doctors has not been provided yet. Experts interviewed by Kommersant note that Navalny’s case may cause Russia and Western countries to lose mutual trust completely, with the threat of new sanctions looming on the horizon. Meanwhile, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports that this situation could be used by Russia’s Western colleagues to undermine the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Germany.

"This story adds fuel to the fire of the information war just as Russia was showing restraint and hoping for a de-escalation in relations with its Western partners, taking steps in their direction. Now, especially taking into account the political crisis in Belarus and the protests in Khabarovsk, the possibilities for normalization are minimal," Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov told Kommersant. According to the expert, if Moscow and the West lose all mutual trust over this incident, the West will tie Navalny’s suspected poisoning to the events in Belarus, seeing it as an attempt to take out a potential leader of Russian anti-government protests, if protest sentiment in Russia grows. Besides, after undergoing rehabilitation in Germany, Alexei Navalny may improve his international standing, potentially being considered the main face of the Russian opposition recognized by the West.

Meanwhile, the German newspaper Handelsblatt published calls to stop the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline over this incident, also demanding to introduce individual sanctions against Russian officials and their families, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.

"To project the local situation with the poisoning of the Russian opposition figure onto the global relations between Russia and Europe would be wrong. Besides, it is not clear who poisoned Navalny. It is likely that this case will not lead to any serious repercussions, namely, any specific anti-Russian steps," Oleg Cherednichenko, an associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

However, regardless of the results of the investigation, Europe’s business and political circles may use this situation to their advantage, Cherednichenko noted. There may be statements made against the construction of Nord Stream 2. "However, in the long-term, the economic benefit of launching Nord Stream 2 is clear to Germany, and such statements are unlikely to reach their goal," the expert notes.

 

Izvestia: Russia castigates European Parliament for meddling in Belarusian affairs

Unlike European organizations, Russia is not trying to influence the political situation in Belarus, Russian Senator Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia, commenting on the recent accusations coming from several members of the European Parliament (EP) against Moscow made during a session of the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs. Belarusian opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya took part in the session, informing members of the EP about the aims of the Belarusian protest movement and its readiness to launch talks with incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus.

The European legislators expressed their support for the head of the Belarusian opposition and provided their assessments of the situation in the republic. European MPs often mentioned Russia in their statements, with some offering to establish dialogue with Moscow on Belarus, and some accusing it of aiding the current government and sending its agents to influence the situation there.

Russian politicians dismissed those claims as absurd, noting that Europe is the one who is meddling in Belarusian domestic affairs.

"We respect the sovereignty of Belarus, we are not holding any meetings, be it with representatives of the government or the opposition," Chairman of the Russian Federation Council’s (the upper house of parliament) Foreign Affairs Committee Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. "However, we are always ready to provide cooperation on domestic dialogue, if it is needed by Belarus. Russia is not making any attempts to push the situation in any direction," the senator insisted. However, Russia’s official stance comes down to maintaining contacts with the official leadership of Belarus represented by Alexander Lukashenko and his supporters, he added.

 

Vedomosti: Another pending Normandy Four summit shelved

The meeting between the political advisors to the Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France) nations leaders, planned for August 28, has been cancelled, a diplomatic source close to the talks told the Russian media on August 25. The political advisors planned to discuss the preparations for a new summit of the Normandy Four leaders. Kiev seeks to hold the summit as soon as possible to revise the Minsk Agreements, experts questioned by Vedomosti note.

The last time such a summit took place was in December 2019 in Paris, with the next summit planned for April 2020 if all agreements of the previous meeting were adhered to. However, this anticipated conference has not taken place yet. So far, Ukraine has been pushing for a new Normandy Four summit in Berlin as soon as possible, while Russia has repeatedly pointed out that Ukraine has failed to adhere to its obligations to regulate the situation in Donbass as approved by the Paris summit.

Ukraine’s commitment to holding the next Normandy Four meeting as early as possible is clear, since it needs it to somehow revise the Minsk Agreements, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov told Vedomosti. "They understand that they cannot ram those agreements through in Kiev, that even Zelensky’s own party in the Verkhovna Rada won’t support at least some of those agreements. So of course, they would like to revise those agreements, or at least update them in such a way that Ukraine’s interests are taken into account to a greater degree," the expert said.

Kiev has also been raising the issue of changing the composition of the Normandy Four, with the US, the UK and Poland seen as potential participants in the talks, Kortunov said. However, he pointed out that the Normandy Four format is unlikely to be dissolved in spite of internal disagreements during the preparations for another summit: "We do not have anything else besides this format. Moreover, if Ukraine rejects it, the West’s entire strategy will be destroyed. It is based on adherence to the Minsk Agreements."

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Turkey’s newly-discovered gas field makes Russian supplies less attractive

Turkey is not brushing off the possibility that it may find new sources of natural gas in the Black Sea, the country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during a press conference in Ankara. Earlier, the Turkish leadership announced the discovery of the Sakarya Gas Field with a volume of about 320 bln cubic meters. This revelation has allowed the government to talk about moving a step forward towards Turkey’s energy independence, Nezavisimaya Gazeta points out. Experts note that in the long run, Ankara may attempt to reduce the volume of Russian natural gas supply or launch negotiations for a more agreeable price.

Turkey plans to supply the gas from the newly discovered field on the domestic market in several years. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, divulged that the potential value of the new gas field in the Black Sea might reach $80 bln under current conditions. It is likely that the discovery of the Sakarya Gas Field will lower the degree of public unrest in Turkey, which is going through an acute economic crisis. Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s minister of treasury and finance, was confident that the discovery of new sources of gas in the Black Sea would help the country overcome its budget deficit and move towards surplus figures.

Senior Director of the Turkish Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Aykan Erdemir told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the prospects for profiting off the new gas field are unclear so far. The analyst noted that field experts are predicting that this process would take seven years. Despite the fact that it is too early to discuss the influence this could have on the Turkish-Russian relations, Ankara plans to use domestic production of gas in the long run to overcome dependency on Russian gas and negotiate a lower price, the expert pointed out. On the whole, Turkey will continue to import oil, gas and liquified natural gas for the next decade, however, it will have more space to maneuver between its key suppliers, including Azerbaijan, Russia and the US, Erdemir concluded.

 

Izvestia: Oil prices may hit $50 in the wake of US hurricanes

Oil prices have already been sent surging by the violent storms in the Gulf of Mexico. In the five days of the hurricanes, Brent oil prices went up by 6%, reaching $46 for the first time since August 5. The surge may hit $50 in August, however, this effect will be a short-term one, and in September, the price is likely to return to its original state, experts questioned by Izvestia note. Oil prices are unlikely to grow further due to its significant reserves in the US and insufficient global demand.

The natural disaster has affected the region’s oil industry, with employees at 281 oil platforms out of 643 located in the Gulf of Mexico being evacuated due to the hurricanes.

"That said, 82.4% of oil production has been stopped in the region. Equinor has finished evacuating its oil production platform Titan, and halted the production of oil on this object. BP, Chevron and Shell have suspended 13% of oil production on the shelf," Head of the Analytical Department at AMarkets Artem Deev told Izvestia.

According to Deev, oil prices may hit $47 per barrel this week. The expert noted that the hurricane would not be a long-term factor affecting oil prices, and after the natural disaster wanes, oil platforms will return to normal, with oil prices reaching the pre-hurricane level.

Deputy Chairperson at Alpari center Natalya Milchakova shares this opinion, noting that the prices are unlikely to remain high, just like in early August. Deputy Director at the National Energy Institute Alexander Frolov pointed out that there are no objective reasons for oil prices to grow at the present moment.

"This week, oil prices may even hit $50. However, this will be a momentary price in a specific case. Natural disasters will be used to scare off investors, there may be a speculative effect, however, it will be short-term," the expert concluded. He added that significant oil reserves and low demand affect the current situation on the oil market to a greater extent than natural disasters.

 

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