Izvestia: Putin stresses need to brace for different COVID-19 scenarios

The coming weeks will be decisive in Russia’s battle against the novel coronavirus, President Vladimir Putin said at a video conference dedicated to the epidemiological situation in the country. He also said that all potential scenarios had to be taken into consideration, Izvestia writes.

The head of state did not rule out that specialists from the Russian Ministry of Defense would be involved in efforts to combat the epidemic.

It is essential to strengthen social support to all groups of medical staff, member of the Russian State Duma (lower house) Viktor Zubarev told the paper. "Doctors are currently at the forefront, they live and work in hospitals round the clock. The benefits that are envisaged should also be applicable to resident physicians, postgraduates and medical students involved in the fight against coronavirus," he said. He was also certain that the assistance should be not just material, stressing that doctors need psychological support as well.

Evidently, the epidemic has not peaked yet, and no one can say for sure whether Russia will be able to avoid some other countries’ scenarios, Alexey Agranovsky, Professor of the Department of Virology at Moscow State University’s Faculty of Biology, explained to Izvestia.

If we observe a substantial reduction in the number of infections for at least 14 days, it will be possible to say that "we are not defeated in that battle," he noted. The expert is confident that this requires a responsible approach by all Russian citizens who must abide by the quarantine rules.

"One cannot rely on punitive measures only. On the contrary, they should not be so tough. Every citizen should comply with restrictions. Unfortunately, that’s very difficult. However, punitive measures will only compress a spring," he cautioned.

 

Kommersant: Gazprom Neft CEO lauds deal on cutting oil output

Given the substantial drop in demand for oil, the only effective strategy now is a controlled and coordinated decline in oil production, so the deal on reducing output was necessary, CEO of Russia’s oil major Gazprom Neft Alexander Dyukov told Kommersant.

"Today, the strategy of fighting for a share of the market makes no sense. It would be possible provided that the situation was stable. However, in my opinion, even then that strategy is controversial and is not optimal, if you set the goal for long-term revenue maximization," he stressed.

If the accord had not been inked, that would not have been a disastrous scenario for Russia’s oil industry, Dyukov went on to say. "We have a sufficient margin of safety. Of course, together with Middle Eastern producers, we would have been compelled to cut output due to falling demand and the lack of storage facilities, but still, we would have gone through that crisis at a lower cost than other producers," he pointed out.

When asked to comment on remarks by LUKOIL co-owner Leonid Fedun who compared the deal with the Brest peace treaty, which Russia signed in 1918 on humiliating terms, Dykov stressed that "there is nothing derogatory about it." "The proportion of the physical reduction in production, which Russia accounts for in the new OPEC+ agreement, is about 18% at the first stage. That corresponds to the quota that our country had as part of the deal in 2016-2018. This time, in addition to OPEC+, the reduction will be backed by others producers, such as the United States, Brazil and Norway. Given these countries’ output cuts, Russia’s share will be less than 15%," he said.

One should not expect oil prices to start growing rapidly now that the deal has been reached, Dyukov warned. "We rely on the premise that the second quarter will be the most difficult, but we hope that the removal of quarantines and the resumption of business operations will begin in the summer, so the demand for oil could reach a level close to the pre-crisis one. In the event of such an optimistic scenario, the price could reach $40-45 per barrel by the end of the year, with further growth in 2021," he noted.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China turns border with Russia into defense barrier against COVID-19

Most new coronavirus patients in mainland China are Chinese citizens who have arrived from Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. China has succeeded in stopping the transmission of the virus domestically by and large. The authorities are gradually lifting restrictions on people’s movement in cities and between provinces. However, the biggest concern now is that a new wave of the epidemic could start because of imported cases. On Monday, Beijing reported 98 cases when Chinese citizens who returned to their native country tested positive for the virus.

According to Foreign Policy magazine, at the beginning of the epidemic, Russia barred Chinese nationals from entering the country, and now, on the contrary, China is fencing itself off from Russia. It alleged that there was the growing suspicion and hostility towards China among Russians, and the Chinese have about the same feelings towards Russians. Therefore, the partnership between Moscow and Beijing is fragile.

Meanwhile, Alexander Lomanov, Deputy Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told the paper that there were reports on Chinese social networks in February saying that Chinese tourists had been detained in the street for violating quarantine rules. "The media wrote about anti-Chinese sentiment in Russia. Now it’s clear that the Chinese decided to close that page. Interviews with Chinese students studying in Russia are published. They say that there is no discrimination whatsoever," he emphasized.

On the other hand, for China, its citizens abroad are a serious problem, be it in Russia or in the United States or in Europe, he went on to say. "It seems that the country’s prestige requires that they be repatriated. However, there are hundreds of thousands of such people. Their return will mean enormous pressure for the Chinese healthcare system," Lomanov concluded.

 

Kommersant: Russia considering new ambitious rail project

The Russian government has begun to consider a new major railway project, the Siberian Meridian, announced by President Vladimir Putin last year, Kommersant found out.

The project involves building a freight rail link between China and the Arctic sea ports on the Northern Sea Route by 2035, bypassing the Trans-Siberian Railway, and covers large areas of Siberia and the Arctic region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed that plan while addressing the plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club in October 2019. The president explained at that time that the aim of the project was to connect the ports of the Northern Sea Route with the ports of the Pacific and Indian Oceans by means of traffic arteries. It will help reduce pressure on the Trans-Siberian Railway, provide the first clusters of the Angara-Yenisei macroregion with transport capacities, develop the Arctic transportation hub and passenger traffic, in particular, high-speed traffic between Yekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk.

Under the current circumstances, the project does not seem feasible, the paper quotes Director General of Infoline Analytics Mikhail Burmistrov as saying. Russian Railways currently has an obvious focus of investment. Concerning the Trans-Siberian Railway, this is container transportation, and regarding the Baikal-Amur Railway it’s coal.

Now that the relevance of the Baikal-Amur Railway and the Trans-Siberian Railway has grown dramatically, investing in other global megaprojects seems to be inappropriate, he stressed.

 

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Remote work will not help avoid surge in unemployment in Russia

Russia’s unemployment rate could double at the end of this year, the number of unemployed people could range from 5 million to 25 million people, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. According to recent surveys, about one-third of enterprises have been able to switch to remote work. In other cases, self-isolation increases the risk of people’s dismissal or a reduction in their incomes.

Russia is by no means unique in that sense. Only 37% of jobs in the United States can be plausibly done at home, the National Bureau of Economic Research said.

For its part, Russia’s Ministry of Labor and Social Protection pointed to the need for a balance of interests between employers and employees under the new circumstances. Minister Anton Kotyakov earlier said he was certain that some companies would use that form of work extensively in the future.

According to the information provided by Russia’s VEB development corporation, the overall unemployment rate in Russia may reach 7% by the end of 2020. The 2019 unemployment rate stood at 4.6%.

"The unemployment situation is extremely difficult at the moment. About 5 million people have actually lost their jobs by now, according to estimates by SuperJob specialists. If the restrictions are in effect for another month, their number will grow to 20-25 million," SuperJob spokesman Konstantin Tikhov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

"Rising unemployment has already become a reality, it will continue to grow as small and mid-sized enterprises close. Big businesses are cutting staff as well. Many workers have to switch to part-time work. Other steps aimed at reducing costs are being taken as well," Yelena Yakhontova, Professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), stressed to the paper.

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