MOSCOW, June 15. /TASS/. Brent oil prices may fall to $75-80 per barrel and gain a foothold in this corridor for the next one and a half to two months, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is being restored, Alexey Belogoryev, the Research Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, told TASS.

"Yes, I expect Brent prices to decline further on to $75-80 per barrel. I think that prices will be fixed for the next one and a half to two months in this corridor, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is being restored, which will take time, and while the promised 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are underway. Certainly, all this can happen if the announced agreements are signed on June 19," Belogoryev said.

Attempts to break through the $75 mark down are possible but it will be difficult to gain a foothold below, he noted. "All market participants have to price in the possibility of resuming hostilities if the negotiations fail. And the probability of their failure is now estimated at about 50/50," the expert noted. Both countries have strong parties of "hawks" dissatisfied even with the current agreement, and the factor of Israel, which can resume hostilities in Lebanon at any time, is likely to disrupt the negotiations or significantly slow them down, he added.

The return of rhythmic supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will take about a month and a half and they may recover since early August, Belogoryev stressed. "However, there is a second part of the problem related to the fact that the months-long crisis has fundamentally undermined confidence in the reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf. Some importers have rebuilt logistics chains as much as they could. And most importantly, the lack of confidence that all this will not fail at the last moment, of course, will force importers to act quite carefully," he said. Demand for oil from the Persian Gulf may not return to the pre-war level immediately - this may drag on until late fall.