Press review: UK’s Novichok 2.0 and glimmer of hope from US congressional Russia trip

Izvestia: Russian, US legislators 'break the ice' for bilateral dialogue

A US congressional delegation visited Moscow for the first time since Donald Trump took the presidential reins to hold talks with high-ranking Russian officials. Despite the fact that the two sides disagree on a number of issues, there is a glimmer of hope that such meetings will become regular, Konstantin Kosachev, Chairman of Russia’s Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.

"The delegation consisting of representatives from various committees, clearly had no mandate for negotiations as such, while its composition indicated that we would exchange views and, after hearing new arguments, part ways to think them over. The purpose of the visit and its consequences are that now the inter-parliamentary dialogue will perhaps become systemic. We were in a situation where there had been no such contacts, and now they have been de facto unfrozen thanks to this visit," he noted.

Kosachev recalled that he had discussed the possible resumption of inter-parliamentary contacts with current Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Robert Corker. However, the two sides failed to break the impasse because of the domestic political climate in the US.

"Nevertheless, we conveyed a message on our willingness to resume joint meetings to future members of the Foreign Relations Committee through the US senators. We sent these signals and will be waiting for some response after the [November] elections," the Russian politician concluded.

Although the US delegation’s visit had been planned before it was announced that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would meet in Helsinki, it is bound to affect the atmosphere surrounding the upcoming summit, says Yuri Rogulev, Director of the Franklin Roosevelt US Policy Studies Center at Moscow State University. He stressed in an interview with Izvestia that now Trump is not the only one who is trying to ‘break the ice’ in US-Russian bilateral relations, but there are contacts at other levels as well.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Amesbury poisoning likely to fuel more Western anti-Russia hysteria

The UK has launched a probe aimed at establishing a connection between the Amesbury poisoning incident and the attack against former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in neighboring Salisbury. UK Home Secretary Sajid Javid pinned the blame for the Amesbury incident on Russia arguing that Moscow should provide specific explanations about what happened.

However, unlike the Skripal saga, tough sanctions against Moscow seem to be highly unlikely at the moment, Kira Godovanyuk, Senior Researcher at the Center for British Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Bilateral relations between the UK and Russia are already in a critical state, so it is hard to imagine that the new poisoning incident will result in diplomatic expulsions," she stressed. The expert noted that it would be difficult to explain to voters why such steps are necessary in terms of the "new sanctions’ practical benefits."

On the other hand, the new ‘Novichok’ incident in Amesbury could put Russia in a much more negative light, she added. "It is hard to say anything for sure now, but, for example, it was earlier assumed that provocations during the FIFA World Cup were a possibility," Godovanyuk pointed out.

She admitted that Western countries could resort to tougher rhetoric in relation to Moscow in the wake of the Amesbury incident. "In particular, one can say right now that the situation with the poisoned British couple will be extensively discussed at next week’s NATO summit."

Izvestia: Vienna meeting to search for ways to salvage Iran deal

Friday’s meeting in Vienna that will bring together the top Russian, Iranian, Chinese, French and British diplomats can be decisive for the Iran deal, Radzhab Safarov, Director of the Center for Modern Iranian Studies, stressed in an interview with Izvestia.

"Of course this meeting will be very important, as it will consider new proposals for outlining a common stance. The decision, which is expected to be made, will hardly be a breakthrough. However, it will help clarify the parties’ interests and bring them closer to hammering out a shared alternative agreement without US involvement. Meanwhile, Iran is waiting for a response from the EU. It needs a solid and clear stance, and progress here is quite possible. The Vienna summit will be decisive in moving towards a final decision that will be seen as Europe’s final stance," he stressed.

When asked whether European countries can spell out any conditions to extend the nuclear deal, the expert noted that whatever the EU may propose, that will be just a proposal. "Similarly, the US can suggest that Iran withdraw from Syria, but this is unrealistic. The two countries are linked by an array of important strategic interests ranging from regional security to the implementation of major geopolitical projects. Iran will never withdraw from there completely under any circumstances," he emphasized.

"If Brussels revises the nuclear deal taking its cue from the US, that will be just more proof that, despite its pomposity, (Europe) has neither any sovereignty nor any potential to protect its interests," the expert added.

Safarov explained that the P5+1 countries, including Russia and China, were authorized by the UN Security Council and signed the nuclear deal on behalf of the global community, not on behalf of their governments. "Technically, it will be pointless to preserve the deal, if the European parties quit it, because political relations between Russia, Iran and China are pretty good as they are. Moscow and Beijing support Tehran’s nuclear program without asking any unnecessary questions. They could maintain bilateral relations or agree on individual positions, which will be more effective than developing scenarios to preserve the deal artificially, he noted.

Kommersant: Italy wants EBRD to return to Russia

Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has invited Rome’s EU and G7 partners to reconsider partially resuming operations by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Russia. Italian Ambassador to Russia Pasquale Terracciano confirmed that in his letter to Kommersant. It stated that the issue at hand is resuming EBRD’s financing of small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia.

According to the diplomat, in the coming months, the EBRD will be fully involved in efforts to spell out procedures for implementing that proposal. The goal of the plan is to resume the line of credit blocked in 2014, "in order to give a fresh impetus to the growth of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia and, collaterally, promote the development of civil society."

The EBRD ceased investing in Russia after Brussels and Washington slapped sanctions on Moscow in 2014. Italy believes that measures affecting the interests of Russia’s small and medium-sized business are excessive and contravene the EU’s original intent.

According to Anton Usov, EBRD Senior Advisor in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, "if the Italian government submits a proposal, it should be considered by all the bank’s shareholder countries, including Italy, and there are 66 of them in all." "Any future actions will depend on what decision they make and whether they consider the issue at all," he emphasized.

Vedomosti: Oil exports to US could drop 13%, if Iran blocks Hormuz transit, expert warns

With 18.5 mln barrels of oil (20% of global production) transported via the Strait of Hormuz annually, oil exports to the US could decrease 13.5% (to 52.3 mln tonnes per year), if Iran delivers on its threat to disrupt shipments over US oil sanctions, Vedomosti quotes VYGON Consulting Research Director Maria Belova as saying.

Tehran warned earlier that it would block oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf, if the US succeeds in stopping Iranian oil exports.

Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait can only export oil along this route. Tankers from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq likewise travel via that strait. These countries transport 80%, 85% and 85% of their oil through this sea passage respectively, Belova said. "About 80% of oil transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian-Pacific countries, mainly China, Japan, India, South Korea and Singapore," she explained, adding that only the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iraq have working pipelines bypassing the strait.

That being said, these threats can be seen as signals to major oil customers, that is, Asia-Pacific countries, whose weight in the political arena is growing annually, Belova went on to say. "Six years ago, when the US and the EU slapped an embargo on Iranian oil, similar threats could be heard from Tehran. However, despite the fact that the EU eventually imposed an embargo on purchasing oil from Iran, they have never materialized," she explained.

Almost one-fifth of oil could disappear from the market, while oil prices will skyrocket, warned ACRA analyst Vasily Tanurkov. However, blocking the strait completely is unrealistic, as the United States, neighboring countries and nations in the Asia-Pacific region, which receive the bulk of Iran’s oil, will not allow that, he added.

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