Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Erdogan's re-election to test Kremlin’s Middle East ambitions
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s landslide victory in Turkey’s presidential election might pose serious problems for Russia’s leadership, Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote. Speaking to his supporters in Ankara, Erdogan promised to continue the ‘liberation’ of Syrian lands. Experts told the newspaper they do not rule out that Moscow might have to brace for a rocky road ahead in its relations with Ankara. The Kremlin’s geopolitical and economic projects in the Middle East may face risks from Ankara’s unpredictable policy.
The Turkish expert community believes that changes in the country’s foreign policy are indeed possible, and can trouble Russia. "Turkey's foreign policy will certainly undergo some changes. Despite the fact that the victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan was largely predictable, the steps that will follow in the foreign policy arena will most likely be more or less aggressive, depending on the political situation and the personal ambitions of the newly elected president," political scientist Kerim Has told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The experts believe that the theory of Russia gaining an ally or even a strategic partner with Erdogan’s re-election as president is out of the question. "It cannot be ruled out that Moscow's geopolitical and economic projects in the Middle East could be affected," Has warned. "The extent of the risks for Russia is mounting and is expected to intensify, because Moscow is closely involved in Turkish-Western relations, and, of course, in the Greater Middle East. In addition, the issue of the Turkish political elite supporting some opposition groups in Syria and the region is on the agenda," the expert added.
Some Russian analysts also agree with this narrative. Thus, Director of the Centre of Islamic Research at the Institute of Innovative Development Kirill Semenov told the newspaper that the key factor in the development of Russian-Turkish relations would be Ankara's intention to negotiate with the United States. "A lot will depend on how normal the relations between Turkey and the US will be. After this, some changes may occur, primarily regarding Syria. Perhaps, Turkey will reach agreements with the US on the creation of a single unified opposition space in the north and northeast of Syria. Naturally, Turkey will coordinate this issue within the framework of a dialogue with the American leadership, and not within the Astana framework - Russia, Turkey, Iran," he said.
However, the analyst noted that so far there are no clear signs of changes in Turkey's foreign policy. "I do not think that Erdogan's current positions speak of some leaps in foreign policy. He will not leave Syria, he will try to somehow resolve the issue with the Americans in order to get more territories in Rojava and put it under his control," he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Kommersant: Trilateral gas talks with Ukraine expected to kick off in summer
Three-way negotiations on gas between Russia and Ukraine with the participation of the European Commission can take place in mid-July, after the EU-Ukraine summit, sources told Kommersant. Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Vice President of the European Commission Maros Sefcovic might set the exact date for June 26. They also plan to hash over the developments around the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline amid Ukraine's desire to persuade the US to impose sanctions on this project. Washington's actions are increasingly annoying Brussels, including traditional Russia skeptics like Sefcovic, the newspaper wrote.
The meeting between the Russian energy chief and the Vice President of the EC will be held within the framework of the World Gas Congress, which takes place this year in Washington, the newspaper noted. According to Kommersant, the meeting will be technical, with the parties planning to discuss the parameters and the date of future negotiations. It was already decided that the trilateral talks would be held in mid-July, a source told Kommersant. Another source told the newspaper that the meeting was agreed on somewhere between July 9-20. The EU-Ukraine summit is supposed to be held first, and the negotiations will follow it.
A European diplomat told Kommersant, Sefcovic certainly would not receive the full negotiating mandate at the talks, since it has to be approved by all EU members, so he can only serve as a mediator. As for any obligations from the EU side (for example, providing financing for the modernization of Ukrainian gas pipelines), it is possible only based on informal consultations with key countries of the EU. However, such a system has already shown its efficiency in 2014-2015, in particular, EU members allocated $3 bln to Ukraine for repaying its debt to Gazprom for gas supplies in the spring of 2014, Kommersant pointed out.
Izvestia: Moldovan president weighs in on Transnistria peacekeeper pullout proposal
Talks about making changes to the peacekeeping mission in Transnistria and the withdrawal of peacekeepers would only be possible after a political settlement in the region, which in turn demands changing Moldova’s parliament and government, Moldovan President Igor Dodon said in an interview with Izvestia.
"The question of changing the format of the peacekeeping mission, as well as whether or not the Russian military that protects warehouses will leave are connected only with a political settlement, which means that first of all we must sit down at the negotiating table - the left bank and the right bank," he said.
According to Dodon, significant progress is being made in solving social and economic problems in the region, but a political settlement is also necessary. "For this, we need a normal pro-Moldovan majority in the government and parliament. So far, this doesn’t exist. But we hope that after the parliamentary elections we will have it," Dodon noted.
Answering a question on discussions of a pullout of the peacekeeping mission from Transnistria at the UN General Assembly, he called the initiative an attempt by the ruling pro-European Democratic Party to raise its rating ahead of the upcoming elections at the end of the year. "This is done purely to get additional points and ratings on the pro-Western electoral field before the parliamentary elections, which will take place in a few months. Judging from reaction of the same initiators, I see that even they perfectly understand - there will be no practical steps in this direction," he added, urging to treat such proposals coolly.
Earlier, through a simple majority, the UN General Assembly adopted a draft resolution calling for the immediate and complete withdrawal of Russian military forces from Transnistria, which are part of the peacekeeping forces. Sixty-four countries supported the document, while 15 countries voted against it, with 83 abstaining. The majority of EU states supported the resolution, as well as the United States and Canada. Many African and Latin American states and a number of CIS members abstained. Such countries as Armenia, Belarus, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, Syria and Venezuela voted against it.
Kommersant: Russia-Mexico ties may improve after new president elected
The pre-election campaign officially closes in Mexico on Wednesday, after which the country will go to the polls to elect a new president. So far, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a candidate from the left-wing political party, the National Regeneration Movement, seems to have the best chance of winning, Kommersant wrote. The presidential contender promises to fight corruption, raise salaries and pensions, and maintain good relations with Latin American countries, the United States, and Russia. His opponents throughout the campaign accused him of having ties to Moscow. Experts interviewed by the newspaper believe that relations between the two countries will continue to be friendly despite the accusations.
Professor at UDLAP Mohamed Badine El Yattioui told Kommersant, he doubts that if Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador wins, relations between Mexico and Russia will change significantly. Mexican political scientist Daniel de la Garza agrees with him. According to the expert, relations will be friendly, which it should be between states that play important roles in international relations, he told the newspaper. According to him, economic and cultural ties will improve, but any drastic changes in other areas are not expected. In the foreign policy program of the candidate, Russia is mentioned as the country with which Mexico will strengthen economic ties and cooperate in the sphere of security, he added.
At the same time, it is already clear that the politician will try to balance relations with both the right and left countries of the Western Hemisphere, El Yattioui added. According to the expert, Lopez Obrador will not criticize the human rights situation in Cuba and Venezuela like Enrique Pena Nieto did, because he believes that this situation needs to be improved in Mexico first.
As for the United States, the candidate's program says that his relations with his northern neighbor will be balanced, mutually beneficial and respectful. However, according to Daniel de la Garza, this does not mean that Lopez Obrador will obey the American government. Despite his respect for the United States, relations with the country will be more complicated, the expert said.
Izvestia: Economic Development Ministry might cut red tape for big business
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development plans to submit a proposal to the government in the near future to abolish fines for big business for first-time misdemeanor violations, the Ministry’s press service told Izvestia. Instead of fines, large enterprises will get a warning. According to experts, cutting red tape will accelerate the growth of the Russian economy by 1-2 percentage points.
The rule might apply to large enterprises that for the first time commit a violation that does not entail damage to the lives or health of citizens. Large businesses include enterprises with at least 250 employees and revenues of over 2 bln rubles ($31.87 mln) per year.
Currently, this norm is in effect only for small and medium-sized businesses. The Government Expert Council supports replacing fines with warnings for first-time violations by large businesses, Member of the Expert Council Alexander Bragin told the newspaper. According to him, it would be fair to establish such a norm for all, and not just for small and mid-sized businesses. Thus, preventive measures will be expanded, he noted.
Reducing bureaucratic barriers will accelerate the growth of the Russian economy by 1-2 percentage points, Deputy Director of Centre of HSE Development Institute Valery Mironov told Izvestia. According to him, regulations should be simplified, and as a result the burden on business will decrease.
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