MOSCOW, February 9. /TASS/. The Central Bank of Russia is highly conservative in its forecasts because of risks of new ‘black swans’ appearance, Chairperson of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina told TASS in an interview on Thursday.
"The higher level of uncertainty in the global economy and international policy is observed in the last 2-3 years. Risks of emerging new ‘black swans’ exist; uncertainty factors will influence on financial markets at large on a going basis. Therefore our attitude towards forecasts is very conservative," Nabiullina said.
The Bank of Russia tries to avoid exaggerated optimism because the regulator can always adjust its policy in case of favorable developments from the standpoint of world’s economy, trade and oil prices growth, she said.
"Considering greater uncertainty, it is always better to be ready for pessimistic developments," Nabiullina added.
A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict. The term was popularized by economist Nassim Taleb. Black swan events are typically random and unexpected.