TUNIS, November 5. /TASS/. The Democrats’ victory in the US midterm congressional elections could reduce the risk of renewed direct military confrontation between Washington and Tehran and potentially give US President Donald Trump an opportunity to pivot toward negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Tunisian military expert specializing in international relations Abdel Hamid Mahfouzi told TASS.

"The most significant anticipated consequence of a Democratic victory would be a reduced threat of war with Iran, particularly the diminished likelihood of a nuclear strike, which has been discussed so extensively. In this scenario, the Democrats could effectively throw Trump a lifeline by shifting responsibility for delivering decisive strikes against Iranian infrastructure onto Washington’s ally, Israel," the expert said.

He argued that "any other outcome would be seen as an acknowledgment of Iran’s victory, if not an outright admission of defeat." Mahfouzi also predicted that "there would be a clear push toward negotiations, primarily aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by the release of a small portion of Iran’s frozen assets."

The expert also expects changes in Washington’s policy toward the Arabian Peninsula. In his view, the United States is likely to seek to "scale back its support for Saudi Arabia and distance itself from the conflict with the Houthis." Washington could potentially delegate this role to "its ally Israel, or perhaps Pakistan or Turkey."

As for the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, Mahfouzi does not anticipate any change in US policy. "It is unlikely that anything will change on this front. The current situation, characterized by persistent and recurring clashes, will continue," he noted.

Reasons behind the Republicans’ defeat

Mahfouzi identified the prospect of war with Iran as one of the main factors behind the Republicans’ electoral defeat.

"A war with Iran, rising fuel prices and the growing cost of living were the main factors shaping voter sentiment," he said.

According to the expert, the scale of the Republicans’ losses exceeded expectations, with the Democrats even making gains in traditionally Republican states such as Texas and Kansas.

For the party’s wealthy donors and major corporations, which had "invested enormous sums to strengthen their influence," the election outcome amounted to a disaster, Mahfouzi said. He also pointed out that "the Republicans’ defeat coincided with that of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu."

Trump’s relations with the Democrats

With Democrats having secured majorities in both houses of Congress, Mahfouzi believes they are now in a position to "block the president’s legislative agenda, exert pressure through budgetary mechanisms, launch investigations into his administration and obstruct appointments requiring Senate confirmation."

"On financial matters, for example, he will be unable to act unilaterally without engaging the House of Representatives," the expert said, referring to Trump.

Meanwhile, the president’s declared readiness to use his veto power if Democrats attempt to advance their own legislative initiatives suggests that "a new phase of political confrontation is taking shape in Washington," Mahfouzi said.

"Could Trump emerge as a president who obstructs the functioning of state institutions?" he asked.

At the same time, the expert sees no reason to expect a fundamental change in US foreign policy, including its approach to the Middle East. In his assessment, the Democratic victory is "more technical than political in nature."

"The form will change, but the substance will remain the same," he concluded.