BRUSSELS, July 2. /TASS/. The EU budget would have to increase 12 to 15 times in the event of a war with Russia and to prevent such a scenario, the bloc should raise its actual budget by at least 20%, European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius said during his speech at the European Commission's annual EU Budget Conference in Brussels.

Speaking about discussions on the EU's next seven-year Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028-2034, Kubilius said: "The whole MFF is only about 1.28% GNI. Frugals want to cut it down to 1%," roughly its current level.

"We have real threats, that Russia will start a war against EU Member States quite soon. In that case - following an analogy with US history, our EU budget perhaps will increase up to 12-15% of our GDP," Kubilius said.

"If we are serious - then now is the time to discuss not how to cut EU budget, but how to increase it at least up to 2%. In order to avoid the war. And in order to avoid, in the case of war, the need to increase EU budget up to 12-15%," he added.

EU federalization

Kubilius explained that he based the 12-15% figure on what the United States experienced during the Civil War (1861-1865), "the federal budget increased up to 12-15% of GDP." He did not explain why he chose to compare the EU with events that took place more than 160 years ago rather than with World War I, when, by his own account, the US federal budget rose to 20% of GDP, or World War II, when it reached 40%.

These comparisons are misleading as the European Union is not a single country but an international organization. The EU still lacks legal authority in military affairs, although the European Commission has been seeking to acquire such powers from member states. The creation of the post of European Commissioner for Defense at the end of 2024 and Kubilius' appointment to that position marked a significant step in that direction. Kubilius' reliance on the US historical experience in the budget debate points to the European Commission's intention to move toward greater EU federalization in the coming years.